Submitted 19FEB2010
There has been an awful lot of comparisons of the Obama administration with that of Jimmy Carter’s Presidency. Well, that got me thinking…(uptempo music starts while the scene fades out)
(Overpowering announcer voice) Come with us now as The Blogmocracy relives those heady days of yesteryear where Embassies were overrun, the Panama Canal was given away, left wing terror ruled Europe, where the American President complained about ‘national malaise’ and encouraged everyone to turn down the heat and wear a sweater, and where American ‘street cred’ in the international community was lower than John Travolta’s neck line in ‘Saturday Night Fever’…Yes, Blogmocrats, come with us as we journey back to the days of the ‘Misery Index’. (End scene)
The Misery Index, indeed! This lovely little metric has been more or less forgotten about since Reagan knocked it out of the park some 20 plus years ago. But here at the Blogmocracy, we have the unblinking, all seeing eye. Its in the toolkit for WordPress. 
The Misery Index was first the simple equation of Unemployment + Inflation first coined by Arthur Melvin Okun . This is easy enough to grasp, but it does not paint the complete picture. Robert Barro expanded the Index to Unemployment + Inflation + Gross Domestic Product Change+ Bank Rate. This rounded out the Index and made it more accurate to reality. The difference between these two is that the Okun Misery Index is the like the informal English you use with your friends, the Barro Misery Index is the formal English you use in something like a job interview, both will get your point across. Definitions for the above terms are at the end, if you want to refresh your Econ 101.
While I don’t believe the Main Stream Media will troop out our Misery Index while President Obama is still in the White House, it is interesting to look at this historic comparison of Presidents by Prof Barro himself:
So, unemployment can be defined as the percentage of persons on unemployment compensation expressed as a percentage of total workforce. Yes, I know the real unemployment is 17% but the number used is 10%. This uses the official, Department of Labor announced rate, sorry that’s how it works.
Inflation: The inflation rate is the percentage rate of change of a price index over time. Since I am a monetarist like Milton Friedman,who stated that: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” , I believe that inflation is too many dollars moving too quickly while chasing too few goods. Or that government action or inaction is at the root of inflation.
Gross Domestic Product is private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports-imports) or GDP= C + Inv + G + (exports-imports)
Bank Rate (discount rate) is the interest rate that central banks charge on the loans and advances it extends to commercial banks and other financial companies. Changes in this rate are often used as a tool to control money supply. This bank rate is the basis of the interest rate you pay on loans, its bank rate + profit margin interest and risk = the rate you pay.
Tags: Barack Obama, Economy
Dang it, nothing on Президент Оба́ма….
Where does Obama rank, oh All Seeing, Lidless Eye? I see not the ranking of Obama. Surely the One True Obama ranks above the infidel Reagan. Tell me this is so…
@ Iron Fist:
cant calculate an index yet…but rught n0w he is at about 13% and rising
by definition an index requires time, this table is for 4 yr terms
RIP Gen Al Haig.
i will have a shot of whiskey for him once the sun goes over the yardarm.
@ coldwarrior:
I read that he was sick…RIP
Sorry to hear that.
gdp last year was -2.4, unemployment is about 10, inflation was negative (deflation) at -.04, and the bank rate is right around 0.25…
0bama gets a 11.5
inflation and interst rates will be rising…unemployment is not going away…gdp will be flat. he may be able to hit 20!
@ coldwarrior:
Condolences for the family. RIP.
I knew that he could do it!
The Administration & their supporters keep up the memen that without
the Obama financial policies we would be in a full depression.
No evidence that I have seen actually supports that , but how to disprove it?
coldwarrior wrote:
I guess the misery index is purely tied to economic data. If an “annoyance” factor could be added he would easily spike over 50. For example, every time I see his arrogant face on TV I have acute pangs of misery. Shouldn’t that count?
@ huckfunn:
annoyance is subjective!
but it does count in novembers
Obama has made a significant mistake overexposing himself to the
public.
He had some weired mystique among Indpendents early on. Now that they have gotten to take his measure, the mystique has evaporated.
@ coldwarrior:
Question: I know that the Marcellus Shale gas play is hot in SW PA. Is there any drilling activity in your area?
Good morning everyone…
@ doriangrey:
Good morning!
@ huckfunn:
not right here, but there are plenty of wells north of here
@ doriangrey:
morning
Iron Fist wrote:
Mmmm, mmmm two homemade Irish cream and Hazelnut double cappuccino early in the morning…. What a way to start the day…
coldwarrior wrote:
Morning CW, I hijacked the previous thread only to discover that everyone had already moved on… Oh well at least I have my double cappuccinos…
doriangrey wrote:
i might make me one of those…
coldwarrior wrote:
Got a Mr. Coffee espresso/cappuccino machine for my birthday so I been going crazy with it all week….
coldwarrior @ 5:
Dang, just read that over at Foxnews.
Rest in Peace Sir.
Semper Fi.
Damn it… Where is everybody??? ya’ll are starting to look like a bunch of sleepy headed slackers… Dont ya’ll know their is espresso to drink and comments to post? Wake the hell up and get busy people… This aint no time to be snoozing….
Beltfed wrote:
Amen sir…
i am on the honey do list…everytime i walk by i check the comments…back to the laundry!
@ Beltfed:
I was sorry to hear of Gen. Haig’s passing. He was a salty old dude and I really appreciated his direct style. I remember when he pulled his “mini-coup” when Reagan was shot and he announced to the world that he was “in charge”. I remember thinking that this could get very interesting.
coldwarrior wrote:
Well damn it, tell the little woman you gots important things to do… like drink cappuccino and post comments and really important stuff like that….
@ huckfunn:
he didnt mean in charge of the govt…he meant in charge in that room and of the communication with the press and coordination of transfer of power to bush sr.
the press blew that out of proportion, yet another MSM lie
@ doriangrey:
you want to argue with an angry russian?
damnn it.
i’m out of flour. bbl, cant make pizza dough and bread without flour
coldwarrior wrote:
Fix her a quadruple espresso, she’ll be fine, plus she’ll handle her honey do list herself…
What you say is, “If you think that this is so important to get done, then do it yourself. Oh by the way, have you put on weight?”
Works like a charm.
@ coldwarrior:
In retrospect I think you’re right. But at the time I didn’t know what he meant and I think that a lot of people, egged on by the press, got a little edgy about it. I really didn’t have a problem with it.
In 1976, Gen. Haig’s son (John, I think) was a 2nd Lt. and was my brother’s platoon leader in Neu Ulm, Germany. It was a Pershing missile battery.
RIX wrote:
Morning RIX, man I was starting to think I was going to have to carry everyone’s weight this morning all by my self… Hmmm, maybe I should have another cappuccino???
@ doriangrey:
Good morning Dorian. Yeah have another cappuccino, it’s Saturday!
RIX wrote:
Hey, now that sounds like a capital idea…. Damn the torpedoes Full Steam ahead…. (my Step-fathers great great grand-father was reputed to have once yelled that in the heat of battle)
Now that’s what I call a quote.
RIX wrote:
Truth be told I dont know whether Admiral David Glasgow Farragut was actually related to my Step-father or not, although my step-father did insist he was. Never the less it is still a great quote…
…
If he was not related, he should have been. I have it on good authority from Husky Blogger that it is the same thing.
RIX wrote:
What I do know is that I come from a long line of American military people, a line that stretches back the entire history of the colonies. My fathers family purchased their first house on the Island of Nantucket back in 1639… (They were Whalers)
Whoa, you go way back, original Yankees huh?
Have you had your genealogy done?
@ doriangrey:
I wish I were still in bed. I’m sitting at the airport, getting read to take off on yet another mission training troops headed overseas.
Looks like I’m getting out just ahead of a huge snowstorm, too.
RIP, GEN Haig.
First of all, I wouldn’t remember the misery index (I wasn’t born until 1983), but I would certainly expect Obama’s rating to be worse than Carter’s.
Secondly, I am sorry to hear about Alexander Haig’s death. I had not known about it until just now, or that he was in any kind of bad health beforehand. His family has my condolences. RIP, General.
I was just stalking over at the Cult.
It’s interesting, without CJ on or any of the enforcers things get
more consservative. Many of the same people swing left when Chuck is onboard.
The Washington Post (for once) has an interesting article on General Haig and his life. What caught my eye was the part on the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. It’s been claimed General Haig attempted to take over as acting President, thereby usurping the proper protocol in an emergency of this nature, but according to the article, the General was quoted as saying he was in charge at the White House pending the return of the senior George Bush.
By the way, here’s the article I mentioned.
@ doriangrey:
Hey DG!! I once knew a girl girl from Nantucket!! (no, really!!)
RIX wrote:
Nope.
Sounds like you might find out some facinating things.
SciFiGuy wrote:
ROTFLMAO…I visited Nantucket once, back in 1989, and had some very amusing incidents with the girls there. One ran her car into the car in front of her because she was watching me instead of the car in front of her, and another sent her brother, who was a Nantucket police officer, to ask me for a date for her…
RIX wrote:
Dont really care, my father and mother got divorced when I was five, when I went to visit him in 1989 he refused to see me.
RIX wrote:
that is what makes it a cult. they will swing whichever way they think the leader wants them to swing.
doriangrey wrote:
you should. sounds like it would be very interesting for you. my mothers family have been doing their genealogy and have gone all the way back to the 16th century (iirc) in Germany. pops side, now that’s a bit more difficult since it’s filled with native Americans, folks not always on the right side of the law, etc. But, we did find that we were in the Spanish American war.
doriangrey wrote:
aw, go on. one bad apple doesn’t erase 400 years of what might be wonderful and fascinating history.
coldwarrior wrote:
And I’m doing all the deep cleaning in the house before going to the Las Vegas NASCAR race next weekend. Any netizens in the area – get my email address from the mods and maybe we can meet for beers Saturday night!
Really sorry to hear that.
That’s exactly right. See y’all later
RIX wrote:
It is what it is, I am a grown adult, I no longer have issues with trying to win my fathers approval. If I’m not good enough for him, or he just doesnt care about me, it’s no longer my problem.
I have no desire to learn anything more than I already know about people who dont want to know me or anything about me.
@ RIX:
Rerun from the dead thread.
doriangrey @ 41:
Kirly @ 54:
Wow, I step away for a couple of hours and the posts turn to something that interest me.
Whaling is part of my family’s first footprint here in the states back in the 1850s
Always had a few questions for anyone who is involved with genealogy. Will have to wait for an open thread to ask some questions.