Plus: Extra bonus feature; what is “hide the decline”?
I have avoided fisking the Oxburg greenwash of CRU, because it’s rather involved, and others have done a pretty thorough job of it here. But I stumbled across an article sympathetic to CRU and the greenwash at New Scientist here that just had my jaw on the floor in disbelief. They not only were full of shiite from one end of the article to the other, they didn’t even get the question right.
If the beleaguered climate scientists of the University of East Anglia have a weakness, it is in their statistics – yet their conclusions that the planet is warming stands on solid ground.
So we open with a violin riff. The beleaguered climate scientists. Really. They screwed up the math, but their conclusions were “on solid ground”. Not only is this ridiculous on its face – it’s the Dan Rather “fake but accurate” claim in a new wrapper, but no one ever questioned that the earth was warming.
That’s the conclusion of the third independent inquiry into “climategate” – the fallout from last November’s release of hundreds of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the university, which is located in Norwich, UK.
If that’s the conclusion, then it’s meaningless, because that wasn’t the allegation.
He said the strongest example he had found of imperfect statistics in the work of the CRU and collaborators elsewhere was the iconic “hockey stick” graph, produced by Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University in University Park.
The graph shows how temperatures have changed over the past 1000 years (see graphic, right).
Hand pointed out that the statistical tool Mann used to integrate temperature data from a number of difference sources – including tree-ring data and actual thermometer readings – produced an “exaggerated” rise in temperatures over the 20th century, relative to pre-industrial temperatures.
Bull-diddly-shit. Nobody ever alleged that the Mann hockey stick exaggerated the rise in the 20th century; the “blade” of the stick. That’s not the part that was reconstructed from the tree rings! The problem with what Mann did was with the “shaft”, or the handle. The part that was created from the tree rings.
Intentional or otherwise (and I can’t tell), this is a classic straw man argument. It’s a very simple type of fallacy, where you simply get the opponent’s claim wrong. This renders any conclusions nonsensical. Most straw men are subtle. This isn’t. This isn’t even close.
That point was initially made by climate sceptic and independent mathematician Stephen McIntyre. The upwards incline on later versions of the graph has been corrected to be shorter and less exaggerated (for the full story of the hockey stick controversy, see Climate: The great hockey stick debate, and Climate myths: The ‘hockey stick’ graph has been proven wrong).
Hand said he was “impressed” by McIntyre’s statistical work. But whereas McIntyre claims that Mann’s methods have “created” the hockey stick from data that does not contain it, Hand agrees with Mann: he too says that the hockey stick – showing an above-average rise in temperatures during the 20th century – is there. The upward incline is just shorter than Mann’s original graphic suggests. “More like a field-hockey stick than an ice-hockey stick,” he told New Scientist.
I guess this is what you call sleight-of-Hand. But he started out with a mischaracterization of the question, and came to a useless answer. Note also how NS has the chutzpah to then claim that McIntyre’s work has been “proven wrong”, when they don’t even understand what he’s claimed.
Let me explain the whole confusing thing. Here is the famous Mann graph:
The red part is from the 20th century, and is based on actual thermometer readings made by actual humans. There are other issues with that part that have nothing to do with the controversy with the hockey stick. For the purposes of this discussion, the red part is assumed to be correct. That being the case, Hand’s claims are ridiculous, because the “blade” isn’t in question. The thermometer record is what it is, and the tree-ring part (the blue) can’t change that.
Again, the controversy is over the handle, not the blade. There are several issues that McIntyre and McKitrick had with the process used by Mann, and it appears that Hand is only talking about one of the more minor ones. The biggest issue has to do with which proxies the algorithm selects. While the chart says “tree rings, corals, ice cores…”, the reality demonstrated by M&M is that the algorithm selects, for practical intents, not only just tree rings, but it also selects pretty much nothing but California bristlecone pines. So the chart is wrong (and probably dishonest). The blue part, practically speaking, is based on the rings taken from a few bristlecone pine trees in the Sierras in California.
But it’s even worse than that. The algorithm selects them precisely because they have the pattern that he’s looking for. That’s how the bristlecones end up getting selected without being specifically marked for selection.
Again the whole point of the Mann hockey stick was to “make the LIA and MWP go away”, which has nothing to do with the blade. It was to show a flat handle (a completely unchanging climate from 1000 to 1900). That was the objective, and when he was able to produce one the IPCC jumped all over it. He went overnight from a nobody to a star.
So not only was the CRU greenwash unbelievably bold, New Scientist swallowed a misstatement of the criticism hook, line, and sinker. Straw men never fight back.
Extra Bonus: What is “Mike’s Trick”, aka “Hide The Decline”?
While I’m at it, (and have that chart out) let me explain what “decline” was being “hidden”. This is very confusing, because the decline hidden was in the blade, but the consequences were in the handle. Recall that the red part came from real thermometers (as opposed to “treemometers”). If you take the selected tree ring data, it’s not in degrees, it’s in microns of ring thickness. So a “calibration” is necessary to find out what temperature a thickness of a ring corresponds to. So they do what’s known as a “curve fit”, which is a statistical procedure to make a known curve fit through a scatter of real data. When they “calibrate” the tree ring data from the 20th century to the actual temperatures, the shapes of the curves don’t fit:
The red curve is the thermometer curve, which went up, down, and up again in the 20th century, and the blue curve is the tree-ring curve. They both turned down around 1940; the thermometers turned upward again in 1960, but the tree rings kept going down. This is the “decline” that was “hidden”, and is more formally know as the “divergence problem”. “Mike’s trick” was to – in effect – splice the actual temperatures to the reconstruction curve, to make it look like there’s no divergence. IOW, to hide the decline after 1960.
So what does it mean? It means that barring some physiological explanation, the fit is Fuldkommen Gak, and the handle arrived at by this method doesn’t mean anything. The bottom line is that the treemometers can only reproduce half of the known record, and can’t be made to fit all of it. That being the case, there’s not much reason to have faith that the handle part, which can’t be verified independently, means anything at all.
Yeah, it’s a big deal. If they could have come up with a physiological explanation, they would have. They chose not to. They chose to hide an inconvenient truth. Heh™.
Tags: Global Warming Scam
Me thinks a certain self-taught AGW believin’ (after years of not believing and calling it the fraud that it is), comic book reading, pony tailed, washed-up ukulele playing douchebag will beg to differ.
/Not that we give a flying f**k what that imbecilic mental midget thinks.
And FIRST!
Third ! Do I get another cookie ?
@ Bob in Breckenridge:
Ha ha ha ha! OMG!!!!!!!!1
You have to copywrite that!
Sort of related. Any idea if the volcanic eruption in Iceland will have any effect on weather patterns this summer?
@ Rodan:
LOL! Bob always makes me laugh with his poetic descriptions.
@ vagabond trader:
He really doesn’t hold back on his feeling about a certain Jazz Guitarist.
@ vagabond trader:
They will blame Global Warming!
People still actually read New Scientist ? And on this issue ?
Why ?
Well this will probably now shift Joan over to the depressive phase.
@ Rodan:
You betcha!
Why in the ell do these creeps name themselves MUSLIM or ISLAM. That’d be like me naming myself Baptist.Idiots
Ohio: Muslim arrested after AK 47s, semiautomatic rifle, 1,000 pounds of ammo, pipe bomb materials found in home
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2010/04/ohio-muslim-arrested-after-ak-47s-semiautomatic-rifle-1000-pounds-of-ammo-pipe-bomb-materials-found.html
vagabond trader wrote:
Depends on how much more you get. If it’s severe, you could have another year without a summer. Very, very ungood.
ponytail has something in common with Pres.Urkle. Urkle is looking for a pie and Pony looking for a donut. Two brothers on a quest.
Rodan wrote:
Already did.
@ Grimcargo:
Minor detail: If you read the article, yo’ll see that it was 1,000 rounds of ammo, not 1,000 pounds. That’s a pretty significant difference.
And while I don’t doubt that this particular individual was up to no good, I don’t really think 3 rifles and 1,000 rounds of ammo qualifies as an “arsenal.”
I have more than that.
lobo91 wrote:
You just turned some Depends yellow over at the swamp.
@ snork:
Especially since I’m a veteran and a senior NRA member. They’re probably on the phone to DHS right now.
I’ve never seen the point of obsessing over how many weapons someone owns. You can only use one at a time (at least with any degree of accuracy).
lobo91 wrote:
I’ve never seen the point of obsessing over how many vehicles someone owns, because you can only drive one at a time. But some government programs used cars registered as a metric.
@ lobo91:
He’s a muslim convert and trying to get out of the country. That struck me more. (you don’t have pipe bomb material though do you?)
@ Grimcargo:
Dude they’ve only got a limited number of names to pick from: Abu, Islam, mohammad (various spellings), Jihad, etc. They toss them into a hat, pull out 3 or 4 of them and WHAM! That is their revert name. It really is that simple
lobo91 wrote:
You just confimed it, you are a right wing wacko. /
@ NoThreat2U:
Maybe we should have a thread: You’re a right-wing wacko if___. And a companion thread, you’re a left-wing wacko if…
@ NoThreat2U:
Hell, I figured the fact that I have pictures of myself with Ollie North, John Stossel, and R. Lee Ermey proved that.
@ lobo91:
Especially since I’m a veteran and a senior NRA member. They’re probably on the phone to DHS right now.
The Jazz Guitarist, Pink_Flamingo, Gustapo, the Basketball Fan and The Lab Janitor are all reporting you as we speak! You are threat.
Never mind you protected their chump asses!
@ snork:
I really like that idea. Kinda a week in review type thing. Let’s do it!
@ lobo91:
lol
Oh yeah…all the signs are there
@ Grimcargo:
But we have to tolerate Islam in America!
/
@ Rodan:
I don’t have to tolerate anything.
I’m a right wing wacko, after all.
@ lobo91:
That’s the left wing wackos that don’t have to do nuthin.
Rodan wrote:
They already have.
@ vapig:
If “global warming causes volcanoes to erupt,” it should be noted that the particulate matter thrown into the air ends up acting as a cooling agent—the cold weather which occurred worldwide after the great Krakatoa eruption being the best-known example of this.
Thus, assume—merely for the sake of argument—that there is truth to the global-warmists’ claims that “global warming” is going on, and assume further, for argument, that this supposed warming actually does cause volcanic eruptions.
If these things were true, it would mean that the Earth is regulating itself—cooling itself by means of natural, Al-Gore-free processes; no laws, no regulations, no cap and trade, no nothing. And it means that the global-warming alarmists can shut up and go home.
I saw this the other day and thought it might make a good bumper sticker to counter the “Jesus was a commie” claim of the churched left.
“If Jesus was a socialist he would have had someone else shed their blood on the cross”
@ snork:
We ain’t gotsta tolerate nuthin’!
@ buzzsawmonkey:
Of course, that won’t happen, because the point of the global warming cult isn’t to prevent the climate from warming. It’s to solidify their control over our lives.
Ok, if Global Warming is not a fact how come all of the Polar Bears have drowned & the ice cubes melt?
Scott Madsen wrote:
Actually, if Jesus were a commie, he’d have sent Pilate to the gulag in Gaza.
@ buzzsawmonkey:
Seriously! Remember all the crap in the air in the 70′s? Remember how cold it was? Remember how we were all going to die in the next ice age? I say we pollute away and create our our sun screen!
Scott Madsen wrote:
THAT is GOOD!!
OT. Sherlock gets a clue:
Ya think, Chuck? Nawwwww, they’d never do that…
Chuck found his meds:
Place still stinks, though.
Hiding the “Hide the Decline,” featuring Greenman3610
@ buzzsawmonkey:
Some crazy scientists suggested doing something like. Either by making volcanos erupt all over the world or by aerial spraying of a synthetic, to combat GoreBull Warming.
Global warming could never kill the enormous amount of people these killer bee “scientists” can with their crackpot ideas. And we get to play the Guinea pigs.
Scientists playing God with the belessing of our law makers is the scariest thing I can think of.
Hiding the “Hide the Decline,” featuring Greenman3610, Part 2
@ snork:
Wow a week later! I guess the Jazz Man has dicovered that there are other threats besides Global Warming, Tea Parties and Glenn Beck!
Look at how his new crowd reacts!
@ bar:
Sounds like the Matrix!
@ Rodan:
But he doesn’t know what the answer is.
Grimcargo wrote:
This idiot is a convert and has something to prove abt. how much he LOVES the rop.
Some of these morons take the first name; Jihad. lol
Jihad Muslim would we a good choice. Has a more authentic ring than Jihad Jones.
@ Rodan:
Why not? we tolerate Mexican street gangs.
And they do far more harm to America then any Muslims can.
@ Rodan:
Business Stuff (BS):
Got a great thread in cue. Do that vodoo that you do so well.
@ chickadee:
And his nick name would be “redundant”
@ bar:
You joking aren’t you? Did Mexican Street gangs do 9/11 and Ft. Hood? Also why stop at Mexican Street Gangs? How about Chinese Triads or Vitenamese STreet gangs?
Comparing Street Gangs to an Imperialist Global Domination Movementy is assinine.
Now I see hwre your Wetback comment comes from. Well I’ll take my Mexican cousins over your beloved Colonialists anyday.
bar wrote:
lol,
Jihad Islam Mohammed Muslim Allah Akbar Jr.
Bet it all came in across the open “Mexican Drug Coyote Controled Border”.@ Grimcargo:
Nothing says that I have never been a Muslim like, Barack Hussein Obama.
@ taxfreekiller:
Notice McCain is now calling for 3,000 Troops on the border? Why didn’t he before? Does JD have something to do with it?
I really don’t get why the Mexican and Canadian borders are wide open?
Well since it seems we have gone OT:
Israel Oks Jewish March Through Shiloach (Silwan) in Jerusalem. This isn’t going to go over well with terrorists, disloyal Muslims, Leftists, and liberal Zionists (because you know, Jews don’t have a right to free speech)
@ bar:
As for the Mexican illegals, get rid of them. They should NOT be tolerated as well.
@ Rodan:
BS:
you saw the Thread in cue?
@ WrathofG-d:
You are up in a hour and a half.
@ WrathofG-d:
Yes you are in an hour and a half. I squeezed it in. We are in a Hour and half rotation.
“wage slaves” @ Rodan:
Rodan wrote:
Oh, even more than I requested, thank you. I just wanted to make sure you saw it. Thanks again!
@ taxfreekiller:
Plus with LIndsey Graham they will be vote slaves as well. They will be put in ghettos not taught english given handouts and brainwashed into being the slaves of the Progressives.
@ WrathofG-d:
Its a good one and I love it the irony!
Will not let the cat out the bag!
ps
The Farmers Branch city council voted last night 5 to 0 to continue the fight to keep illegals from renting in Farmers Baranch.
They and the citizens in Farmers Branch figure the cost of the lawyers far outweights the loss of tax base due to property values going down and the cost of police, fire, hospital etal the illegals would cause. Example L.A. California. Example Parkland Hospital in Dallas.
Cost to benefit ratio.
Ya, La Raza and Azlatan were there in the parking lot trying to scare the old property owners when they came to the meeting.
@ taxfreekiller:
Ya, La Raza and Azlatan were there in the parking lot trying to scare the old property owners when they came to the meeting.
The ficticious Race which doesn’t exist and the Imaginary Aztlan. These are traitors and they need to be crushed.
@ Rodan:
My Mexicans friends don’t have a problem with my wetback comment, but then we have this crude humor toward each other. Sorry I didnt mean to offend anyone other then illegal aliens.
No not really joking. I am not comparing street gangs to the 9/11 attacks, only making the observation that far more Americans have been killed-injured-assaulted-raped-robbed ect, by street gangs over the years then even the 9/11 attacks. And at least in LA your more likely to be around gang bangers then Muslim terrorists. So the odds of being killed by a gang banger is greater than being killed by a Muslim terrorist in LA.
I was really just getting back to argument yesterday about laws applying equally to all Americans and anyone here on our soil. And if the argument is we have to change that because of a perceived threat, gang bangers are a bigger threat to our safety and liberty.
Scott Madsen wrote:
This actually is the primary foundation of islam; that it was someone other Jesus on the cross bleeding and dying. Must be why progressives and islamists are such good fellow travelers.
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