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Deepwater Horizon Fail- BOP Forensic Examination

by Kafir ( 123 Comments › )
Filed under Blogmocracy, Guest Post at September 10th, 2010 - 7:00 pm

Blogmocracy in Action!
Guest post by: Bagua!


It was quite shocking to have a first look inside the Deepwater Horizon Fail-BOP. After months of speculation, contemplation and debate, we actually get a look inside at guts of this failed leviathan. This was a surprise, the Fail-BOP was going to a warehouse for forensic inspection, yet that begun while still at sea on deck of the magnificent Helix Q4000.

First we see the Cameron Annular Preventer, with the crimped piece of drill pipe. This device uses a rubber packer that seals around the drill string. Pretty chewed up this one, but not surprising, pipe was stripped through it and a tremendous amount of erosive fluid and sand passed by.

Next, the camera moves below the Annular Preventer to examine the blind shear rams, the most critical component. We note that they did in fact close, perhaps completely. Yet at the corner of each pair of rams, we see channels that look like they were cut with a torch.

Remember back to the early days of the leak. First, there were claims that there was no leak. Later a small leak. Then talk of 1,000 bbl a day, then 5,000. The number kept being revised up, with the narrative that BP was hiding the truth. Yet a first look at the shear rams tells a different story. Once the rams closed, there was likely a tiny leak, just enough to force through a jet of sandy oil. With a high pressure differential below and above the leak, the velocity would cause a sand blaster effect.

The small leak grew, and there was a noticeable discharge. As the erosive sand and oil flowed, the size of the hole grew, as did the quantity of oil, gas and sand flowing through. The leak grew steadily as this hole in the shear rams grew.

While it was fascinating to see the failed rams, what else did we expect? Had they closed fully there would be no leak, surely we didn’t expect them intact and fully closed. When the shear rams were opened in this next video, lo and behold, there was the sheared off “fish”, as a piece of broken drill pipe is called. But what is the surprise in seeing a sheared pipe below a shear ram? It’s what they do. But the surprise is seeing the components, with every piece uncovered answering one question and posing three new ones.

In the final video, the Fail-BOP camera goes below the shear rams, to inspect the pipe rams, which are opened. Lower still, we see the fish appears plugged with mud or cement, and resting in mud or cement.

So who’s responsible? BP is desperate to shift some blame, salvage their devastated share price, stave off further losses. Well Cameron made the Fail-BOP, yet Transocean maintained it, and BP had it serviced and altered, in China no less, earning the Fail-BOP a sub-nickname of China-BOP. Is there a forensic clue left intact? Again, the erosive nature of the long duration of uncontrolled flow resulted in the interior being chewed up. A definitive answer is doubtful, and will be easy to contest.

The Blow Out Preventer failed to prevent. Yet had the cement job not failed (Halliburton), there would have been no kick. No need for the BOP to prevent. Why did the well come in when it did and not, say the day before? The heavy mud in the 5,000 riser was displaced with water just over 5 pounds a gallon lighter. It was the mud weight that held back the well before there was a cement job to fail. So we blame the riser displacement (BP with the approval of the MMS, the government regulator). Yet cement jobs fail, wells kick, this is not so unusual. But the mud was not properly monitored which would likely have caught the kick in time to react (BP offloading the mud instead of processing it on board, Transocean? The mud contractor?)

So the well began to come in, mud shoots out, yet the mud, oil and gas continues to the onboard mud/gas separator, why wasn’t it diverted overboard protecting the ship and men? (Mud engineers, Transocean, Tool Pusher?) Why wasn’t the mini-BOP activated when the fail-BOP was activated, this would have stopped flow up the drill string, though not the riser. Why didn’t the emergency disconnect work, which would have disconnected the Deepwater Horizon from the riser and fuel source, saving the ship, perhaps even some of the men.

This list is not exhaustive, there is much more, and other components that failed (several manufactures.) Any one of these weak links could have prevented, and thus “caused” the blow out. Of the two most famous, the BOP itself and the riser displacement, each of these has a variety of procedures, components, and contractors who could have primary or contributory responsibility.

The sum total gave us 11 men dead and the spill itself. Let’s take a moment to honour their memory at this memorial.

While each failure point was critical, it was the combination that was fatal. Which of these failure points was preventable? Reacted to incorrectly? Is any one company, piece of equipment or man responsible? With the money at stake and the avalanche of law suits, governmental investigations, and companies seeking to determine or divert blame, we have the making of years of court proceedings, debate and controversy.

The oil dissipated, or dispersed, or decayed at a rate that surprised even the optimists. Turns out Tony Hayward was right in saying “that the overall environmental impact is likely to be very, very modest” will he get his job back, or an apology from the Media? Let’s not hold our breath waiting for that. Yet we won’t really know how much, or how little effect there was on the environment until the studies are completed and next year’s catch is compared with previous years.


-Bagua



****sep 11 ‘where were you when it happened’ thread is Saturday morning 0800-1200, we will collect and share some memories…write your story for everyone****

please return to your regularly scheduled thread.

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123 Responses to “Deepwater Horizon Fail- BOP Forensic Examination”
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  1. 1 | September 10, 2010 7:09 pm

    First!

    So sue me.


  2. gulfloafer
    2 | September 10, 2010 7:10 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    First!
    So sue me.

    Get off my blog! Err wait, where am I?


  3. gulfloafer
    3 | September 10, 2010 7:14 pm


  4. 4 | September 10, 2010 7:17 pm

    He’s dead.


  5. gulfloafer
    5 | September 10, 2010 7:19 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    He’s dead.

    So is the well.


  6. 6 | September 10, 2010 7:20 pm

    gulfloafer wrote:

    father_of_10 wrote:
    He’s dead.
    So is the well.

    So is this thread!


  7. gulfloafer
    7 | September 10, 2010 7:21 pm

    We should move forward.


  8. coldwarrior
    8 | September 10, 2010 7:22 pm

    nice work bagua…still digesting and reading this along with your last one.

    thanks


  9. 9 | September 10, 2010 7:26 pm

    To where?


  10. NoThreat2U
    10 | September 10, 2010 7:28 pm

    This topic is way over my head. I leave the hard thinking to the smart people.


  11. coldwarrior
    11 | September 10, 2010 7:28 pm

    only the lawyers will benefit from this.


  12. gulfloafer
    12 | September 10, 2010 7:28 pm

    Here’s a pretty good article from the DC today. I asked this same question the other day. What’s more screwed up? Some alleged pastor with 50 followers burning a Koran or hundreds of thousands of crazed lunatics threatening to murder innocent Americans for this guys actions? OR our government leaders imploring the pastor guy to stop so as not to offend said crazed lunatics sensibilities?

    http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/10/thedc-analysis-the-bonfire-of-the-koranities/


  13. 13 | September 10, 2010 7:29 pm

    Like every other natural disaster that the prog/libs declare will be the end of mankind, this oil spill is being cleaned up all on its on by the little bacteria in the oceans. Its almost as if their is an intelligent being that actually had a plan . . .


  14. gulfloafer
    14 | September 10, 2010 7:29 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    To where?

    single payer healthcare?
    /


  15. coldwarrior
    15 | September 10, 2010 7:30 pm

    The oil dissipated, or dispersed, or decayed at a rate that surprised even the optimists. Turns out Tony Hayward was right in saying “that the overall environmental impact is likely to be very, very modest” will he get his job back, or an apology from the Media? Let’s not hold our breath waiting for that. Yet we won’t really know how much, or how little effect there was on the environment until the studies are completed and next year’s catch is compared with previous years.

    i’ve marked my calendar…we will see in a year


  16. 16 | September 10, 2010 7:31 pm

    gulfloafer wrote:

    Here’s a pretty good article from the DC today. I asked this same question the other day. What’s more screwed up? Some alleged pastor with 50 followers burning a Koran or hundreds of thousands of crazed lunatics threatening to murder innocent Americans for this guys actions? OR our government leaders imploring the pastor guy to stop so as not to offend said crazed lunatics sensibilities?
    http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/10/thedc-analysis-the-bonfire-of-the-koranities/

    So are teh muzzies to most sensitives wusses that ever walked on 2 legs? they seem to be offended by EVERYTHING! Don’t they have any REAL MEN?


  17. Bumr50
    17 | September 10, 2010 7:32 pm

    @ gulfloafer:

    Now that Palin, Beck and Limbaugh have condemned the pastor’s actions, the MFM will see it as their duty to make the pastor a good guy whose rights have been trampled by the eeeevil Capitalist Conservatives.

    Bet on it.


  18. coldwarrior
    18 | September 10, 2010 7:34 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    Its almost as if their is an intelligent being that actually had a plan . . .

    naaahhhh….


  19. NoThreat2U
    19 | September 10, 2010 7:35 pm

    @ coldwarrior:
    Isn’t that the way of all crises….only the lawyers benefit?


  20. snork
    20 | September 10, 2010 7:36 pm

    What are the shear rams made of? Just carbon steel? Overlaid with anything? Stellite maybe? Or 416? Shouldn’t they have anticipated all of this erosion, or did they not anticipate that the thing would be blowing for that long?

    The impression that I’m getting is that the BOP was properly designed for a terrestrial well, where after it clamps down on everything, they can move in and deal with it fairly quickly, and they just didn’t re-think everything completely for this mile-under-the-sea service, where they might not be able to get to it for a month or more.


  21. 21 | September 10, 2010 7:36 pm

    gulfloafer wrote:

    father_of_10 wrote:
    To where?
    single payer healthcare?
    /

    Don’t get me started on that one. I’m a “Healthc care provider”. We have not had any medicaid increases in 2 years and we have had a 1% decrease in medicare reimbursement, and we had to fight like crazy to keep it at that. I have to keep my private rates the same in order to stay competitive. Meanwhile, my costs have increase by over 15% from last year. I am respopnsible for the salaries of 130 people. The lowest paid is $9 an hour and the highest is about $130K. I have to budget in a 2% overall payroll increase for raises and I have to budget an increase in profit of 15% for the shareholders. You tell me how Obamacare and the liberals are going to help my business.


  22. Bumr50
    22 | September 10, 2010 7:36 pm

    Remember back to the early days of the leak. First, there were claims that there was no leak. Later a small leak. Then talk of 1,000 bbl a day, then 5,000. The number kept being revised up, with the narrative that BP was hiding the truth.

    Only GOVERNMENT would be stupid enough to believe that people would fall for such an obviously flimsy lie.

    That’s why they and the MSM thought of it.

    BP, in it’s quest to EXIST, would never expect to be able to dupe the public in such a way and get away with it with modern communications technology.


  23. snork
    23 | September 10, 2010 7:36 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    He’s dead.

    Jim?


  24. NoThreat2U
    24 | September 10, 2010 7:37 pm

    @ father_of_10:
    No. Real men don’t beat women.


  25. Calo
    25 | September 10, 2010 7:37 pm

    Bagua,
    Looks like an accident here on all parties ends. So, only the lawyers make money. And, the administration mandates a moratorium on off-shore drilling off our coastal waters. Great.


  26. coldwarrior
    26 | September 10, 2010 7:38 pm

    gotta prep the smoke pit for overnight bbq for tomorrows festiviti!

    wanna come on up bumr?


  27. Nevergiveup
    27 | September 10, 2010 7:39 pm

    @ father_of_10:
    They’ll cry a few phony tears when they put you out of business. And don’t forget all the extra paper work


  28. snork
    28 | September 10, 2010 7:39 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    only the lawyers will benefit from this.

    No. The engineers need to pick the timeline apart completely in order to see to it that this never happens again. No, it wasn’t the ecological Armageddon that the usual suspects said it would be (as I predicted), but yes, we can do better. Shit happens, but it doesn’t have to happen twice.


  29. NoThreat2U
    29 | September 10, 2010 7:39 pm

    @ father_of_10:
    Have you seen the video of some fat dude from one of the unions saying how they “rammed it down the throats and out the asses” of the (R)s?


  30. Calo
    30 | September 10, 2010 7:41 pm

    @ father_of_10:
    Ow -- what do you do in healthcare? Just curious. No need for a specific answer.


  31. NoThreat2U
    31 | September 10, 2010 7:41 pm

    @ coldwarrior:
    You’re gonna laugh when you see the bottle of wine we’re bringing. lol Yeah Bumr…c’mon over!


  32. gulfloafer
    32 | September 10, 2010 7:41 pm

    father_of_10 wrote:

    gulfloafer wrote:
    father_of_10 wrote:
    To where?
    single payer healthcare?
    /
    Don’t get me started on that one. I’m a “Healthc care provider”. We have not had any medicaid increases in 2 years and we have had a 1% decrease in medicare reimbursement, and we had to fight like crazy to keep it at that. I have to keep my private rates the same in order to stay competitive. Meanwhile, my costs have increase by over 15% from last year. I am respopnsible for the salaries of 130 people. The lowest paid is $9 an hour and the highest is about $130K. I have to budget in a 2% overall payroll increase for raises and I have to budget an increase in profit of 15% for the shareholders. You tell me how Obamacare and the liberals are going to help my business.

    They’re not, that’s the whole point. Now you get to pay for people you absolutely no affiliation with through increased rates because you are a productive member of society.


  33. coldwarrior
    33 | September 10, 2010 7:44 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    @ coldwarrior:
    You’re gonna laugh when you see the bottle of wine we’re bringing. lol Yeah Bumr…c’mon over!

    what? slivovitz?

    :lol:

    i cant wait!


  34. Calo
    34 | September 10, 2010 7:44 pm

    @ gulfloafer:
    If I read him right, he is affiliated. They are his employees.


  35. Bumr50
    35 | September 10, 2010 7:44 pm

    @ coldwarrior:

    Thanks for the invite but it’s my Dad’s birthday weekend and I’m gonna hang out up at his place. He just had his knee replacement replaced, and so he won’t be able to do much.

    Plus it’s 9/11 and all AND I’m going to Spirit Of America tomorrow nite with the wife.

    I’d love to be able to get together sometime though!

    It’s not like I’m going anywhere, so maybe another weekend?


  36. NoThreat2U
    36 | September 10, 2010 7:44 pm

    @ coldwarrior:
    A clue: It is from MY winery.


  37. JacksonTn
    37 | September 10, 2010 7:45 pm

    @ father_of_10:

    Father of Ten … well,

    You tell me how Obamacare and the liberals are going to help my business.

    ***

    They are not … and as a small business owner myself … we are just digging in and waiting them out … we will not hire and we are even thinking of streamlining and downsizing … we are not expanding anything and doing what we can with what we have now … usually we would buy another tractor or more supplies and maybe hire more people and get into other markets to sell our product … we have had many discussion about this and we are going to just sit tight and at our age just not make any risk for ourselves that is not necessary … and we are just one business … we employ many people and if it means we have to let some of them go to keep our business we will do what we have to do … Obama and his goons have never operated a business and do not have the best interest in mind of small business I don’t care what they say …

    I have seen in the last year many of our business friends go under … and it is not because they have lived above their means .. it is sad but we don’t want to be one of the casualties of this economic situation .. we will weather it and I bet that is what most are doing … having a business is a risk in this economy and it is always a risk but right now it is a risk we will not take as far as expanding or hiring …

    People assume that if you own a business you are “rich” … they do not understand the risk involved and how much it takes to employ people … we are waiting him out …

    November will be the deciding event and I hope that it turns out well for us all …


  38. NoThreat2U
    38 | September 10, 2010 7:46 pm

    @ Bumr50:
    Don’t forget to report back on that. And wish your Dad a speedy recovery and a happy birthday from us. Just don’t tell him how crazy we are or he might suggest you get new friends. lol


  39. Bumr50
    39 | September 10, 2010 7:46 pm

    @ NoThreat2U:

    Maybe another weekend -- real busy -- but I’d love to meet you guys!

    Maybe I’ll try and put something together here (or I travel well!)


  40. Bumr50
    40 | September 10, 2010 7:47 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    A clue: It is from MY winery.

    Strawberry or Dandelion?


  41. coldwarrior
    41 | September 10, 2010 7:48 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    @ coldwarrior:
    A clue: It is from MY winery.

    sounds like fun!


  42. NoThreat2U
    42 | September 10, 2010 7:48 pm

    Damn. All you hardworking people having your money taken from you. I was just riding out in the country today and noticed some giant old farms being parceled out. Broke my heart. These people have owned this land for so long and now they are selling it in pieces. I worry about you folks, I really do. There is hope though…and not that phoney hope and change stuff either. While on my journey, I saw a sign in someone’s yard that said “Tyranny or Freedom November 2″. I felt good about that.


  43. coldwarrior
    43 | September 10, 2010 7:48 pm

    @ Bumr50:

    i bbq often


  44. Calo
    44 | September 10, 2010 7:49 pm

    @ JacksonTn:
    JT -- I hear ya. One small business owner to another. I am doing everthing I can to no hire anyone until 4th quarter. We are all hanging on by our fingernails.


  45. gulfloafer
    45 | September 10, 2010 7:49 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    @ father_of_10:
    Have you seen the video of some fat dude from one of the unions saying how they “rammed it down the throats and out the asses” of the (R)s?

    Wait a damn minute! The one said special interests talk about him like a dog … a dog! Now you’re telling me unions (GM bond holders GFY) are special interests? I can’t wrap my mind around this mess. Boy I sure am glad to have the MSM straighten it all out for me on a daily basis and help me think correctly.
    //////


  46. NoThreat2U
    46 | September 10, 2010 7:50 pm

    @ Bumr50:
    Sounds like a plan!!!

    @ Bumr50:
    @ coldwarrior:
    It is from my Australian vineyards. Hahaha I forgot, if you don’t know me on facebook, you don’t know my last name.


  47. NoThreat2U
    47 | September 10, 2010 7:51 pm

    @ gulfloafer:
    Just because Obi and the 52 (maybe less now) percenters believe his bullshit, doesn’t mean the rest of us do. He doesn’t realize that.


  48. Bagua
    48 | September 10, 2010 7:52 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    nice work bagua…still digesting and reading this along with your last one.

    thanks

    Cheers.


  49. Bumr50
    49 | September 10, 2010 7:53 pm

    @ NoThreat2U:

    I’m sure he’d LOVE you guys!

    I think he’s purchased at least two firearms a month since he retired two years ago.
    The man has a glass coffee table with a recessed felt bottom in his living room in which he displays a Gurkha Knife from Nepal and an authentic steel machined working replica of a T-1000 arm from the Terminator series!


  50. gulfloafer
    50 | September 10, 2010 7:54 pm

    Calo wrote:

    @ gulfloafer:
    If I read him right, he is affiliated. They are his employees.

    I got it. From what I understand, the rates will rise so high it’ll be cheaper for father of 10 just to drop the coverage and pay the fines then his employees can get the govt subsidized bullshit leading to single payer deathcare insurance. That’s how this boondoggle was set up from the beginning.


  51. coldwarrior
    51 | September 10, 2010 7:55 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    @ Bumr50:
    Sounds like a plan!!!
    @ Bumr50:
    @ coldwarrior:
    It is from my Australian vineyards. Hahaha I forgot, if you don’t know me on facebook, you don’t know my last name.

    iknow your last name. and the aussie vineyard


  52. JacksonTn
    52 | September 10, 2010 7:55 pm

    @ Bumr50:

    Bumr50 … I saw where you posted about your mother the other day … and I say I respect your father so much for raising you and I bet you are so very proud of him … I wish my parents were still here … be grateful for every single day you get to spend with him .. but I bet you are …


  53. coldwarrior
    53 | September 10, 2010 7:57 pm

    gotta go make smoke…the brisket goes on at 2100…

    bbl


  54. huckfunn
    54 | September 10, 2010 7:57 pm

    Marshall: 102 yard pass TD touchdown. Marshall up 14-3.


  55. NoThreat2U
    55 | September 10, 2010 7:58 pm

    Down our throats and out our asses:


  56. gulfloafer
    56 | September 10, 2010 8:00 pm

    @ NoThreat2U:
    Thank you NP? OMG!


  57. NoThreat2U
    57 | September 10, 2010 8:00 pm

    @ Bumr50:
    Oh we have soooo gotta meet him then!


  58. JacksonTn
    58 | September 10, 2010 8:02 pm

    @ NoThreat2U:

    Nothreat2u … lol … I cannot wait for the moment when that gavel is taken or pulled from her hands … I hate that witch …


  59. Nevergiveup
    59 | September 10, 2010 8:04 pm

    huckfunn wrote:

    Marshall: 102 yard pass TD touchdown. Marshall up 14-3.

    They are playing W. Virg. aren’t they. ANd WV is ranked aren’t they?


  60. snork
    60 | September 10, 2010 8:04 pm

    Flying pig crashed:

    Castro: I Meant That ‘Capitalist System’ Doesn’t Work


  61. huckfunn
    61 | September 10, 2010 8:05 pm

    NoThreat2U wrote:

    Down our throats and out our asses:

    Comrade Trumpka is a malignant little bastard.


  62. Bumr50
    62 | September 10, 2010 8:05 pm

    @ JacksonTn:

    I am, and thank you!


  63. huckfunn
    63 | September 10, 2010 8:06 pm

    Nevergiveup wrote:

    huckfunn wrote:

    Marshall: 102 yard pass TD touchdown. Marshall up 14-3.

    They are playing W. Virg. aren’t they. ANd WV is ranked aren’t they?

    Yep. WV is 23 and Marshall is unranked. Pretty good game so far.


  64. NoThreat2U
    64 | September 10, 2010 8:08 pm

    @ gulfloafer:
    Yep!! He gave a shout out to that hag!

    @ JacksonTn:
    I wish I could be the one sto smack her upside the head with it. lol

    @ huckfunn:
    Yeah, he is a mean little bastard.


  65. 65 | September 10, 2010 8:08 pm

    @ Bagua:

    My Drinking thread, I have a reggae song on it!

    Hello all, back from Happy Hour!


  66. NoThreat2U
    66 | September 10, 2010 8:12 pm

    More like Happy Hour(s) lol Welcome back.


  67. JacksonTn
    67 | September 10, 2010 8:12 pm

    @ Rodan:

    Rodan .. your drinking thread? so I was suppose to wait … sorry I am already four beers down …


  68. Bagua
    68 | September 10, 2010 8:13 pm

    snork wrote:

    What are the shear rams made of? Just carbon steel? Overlaid with anything? Stellite maybe? Or 416? Shouldn’t they have anticipated all of this erosion, or did they not anticipate that the thing would be blowing for that long?

    The impression that I’m getting is that the BOP was properly designed for a terrestrial well, where after it clamps down on everything, they can move in and deal with it fairly quickly, and they just didn’t re-think everything completely for this mile-under-the-sea service, where they might not be able to get to it for a month or more.

    It would be certified by the manufacturer to be able to shear the drill string, which would likely be high tensile strength S-140 steel with a 140,000 psi rating. I believe drill pipe has gotten stronger since this unit was manufactured. I don’t know the metallurgy of the rams off hand, but they wouldn’t want it to be so brittle that it cracked.

    The shear rams are designed to purpose, and not expected to be exposed to high pressure flow of erosive fluid. Almost any of the materials used would be expected to erode under a wild well scenario. Completed wells flow under a managed pressure that the production casing and valves can handle, but there is long term corrosion and erosion to consider.

    This erosion is much higher when there is a restriction, with one end open causing a large pressure differential. In this circumstance parts erode rapidly due to the speed, pressure and friction.

    So no, the erosion is not at all surprising, it is expected. We had speculated early on that there was a tiny leak that grew as it eroded. There was, after all, a large pressure differential between the measured pressure at the wellhead and at the top of the stack. I have been posting that I expected from the start that the interior would be quite eroded making any determination of the cause of failure from the opening days of the blow out difficult.

    This BOP was specifically designed for the deepsea, high pressure environment, though it is a decade old and was likely well past its sell by date. This is the current state of the industry though, lots of old, unreliable BOPs. Terrestrial BOPs are similar in mechanics, but look very different. It is the add on bits that count. The BOP itself is just a hunk of steel.


  69. snork
    69 | September 10, 2010 8:20 pm

    Bagua wrote:

    This BOP was specifically designed for the deepsea, high pressure environment, though it is a decade old and was likely well past its sell by date.

    It wasn’t the pressure that I was referring to, it was the long expected time from failure to cap. It seems like this might have held reasonably well if the materials were harder. I understand the tradeoff with brittleness. Barring that, just more bulk might have helped.

    One thing this DOES settle is all the talk about the control panel and the hydraulics. They seemed to all be fine.


  70. Calo
    70 | September 10, 2010 8:23 pm

    @ Bagua:
    So, are more BOP’s likely to fail in the GOM soon?


  71. rain of lead
    71 | September 10, 2010 8:25 pm

    @ JacksonTn:
    hey gal!
    how you doin?


  72. 72 | September 10, 2010 8:25 pm

    Nice post Bagua, thanks. Nice music too.


  73. Bagua
    73 | September 10, 2010 8:26 pm

    Calo wrote:

    Bagua,

    Looks like an accident here on all parties ends. So, only the lawyers make money. And, the administration mandates a moratorium on off-shore drilling off our coastal waters. Great.

    Right. This is a beneficial crisis that presents an opportunity for two key objectives.

    1. More government, more regulation. Regardless of the fact that this was a regulatory failure as well, the MMS approved the riser displacement which resulted in the blow-out.

    2. A chance to enforce Cap and Trade on the oil and gas industry by Presidential fiat instead of going though the bother of the pesky House and Senate. The Demon Fossil Fuel™ is considered a bad thing, by both media and the administration. Despite the fact that it is a good thing, at the heart of our fantastic and historic modern standard of living.

    This is how the strategy of the Beneficial Crisis and Engrenage was used by the EU to build its super state without democratic approval. It is very effective. At the time of the crises, there is always a real problem and a reasonable sounding solution. “Fixing” or “reforming” always involves more government and regulation, never less, even when it was the government regulation which caused the problem.


  74. rain of lead
    74 | September 10, 2010 8:30 pm

    hey blogmockers
    since this is friday and 9/11 eve
    I suggest we raise out glasses and propose a toast to the Heros of 9/11

    Fanfare for the common man.


  75. JacksonTn
    75 | September 10, 2010 8:31 pm

    My father was a SEAL and when many of them retired they did so in Ft. Lauderdale and got together and found that in the early 70s they could go to work for the oil industry as divers on the oil rigs … because really where do you go with the skills they had … at that time not many regular civilians knew how to dive and the guys went into the hard hat diving on the rigs … it was a time of great economic push and created a great living for many people in south Louisiana … I saw the turn around 85 when many businesses when under down on Peters Road and then it came back some but not like it was … I hope that this thing that happened with BP does not become something that totally kicks this industry down … I know that Obama and the dems would love to see the oil fields go by the wayside … but I can tell you that many many people have raised many families from the oil fields offshore of Louisiana and it would be a shame to take this one accident and make it a cause for them to push their agenda …

    I bet most people are not even aware of how many businesses live off the oil fields … small businesses who make their living … boat captains … catering business … supply companies … it sounds easy to just say let’s do away with offshore drilling but they don’t understand how many people are actually affected .. or maybe they do and just do not care ..


  76. Bagua
    76 | September 10, 2010 8:31 pm

    nil stooge wrote:

    Nice post Bagua, thanks. Nice music too.

    Thank you. The music is a trade off as it leads to adds, but they are blocked by Adblockplus in Firefox and one can X them out.


  77. Calo
    77 | September 10, 2010 8:32 pm

    @ Bagua:
    FULDKOMMEN GAK! Feeling kinda Swedish/Danish right now.


  78. savages_girl
    78 | September 10, 2010 8:33 pm

    @ Calo:
    CALO!

    you’re back!

    How was the surgery? What did they do to you?

    Are you ok?


  79. savages_girl
    79 | September 10, 2010 8:34 pm

    @ coldwarrior:

    gotta prep the smoke pit for overnight bbq for tomorrows festiviti!

    I wanna come over… :(


  80. Calo
    80 | September 10, 2010 8:35 pm

    savages_girl wrote:

    @ Calo:
    CALO!
    you’re back!
    How was the surgery? What did they do to you?
    Are you ok?

    God gosh -- someone is here to feed me dinner! Yea, I lost my two screws yesterday -- lol. Let’s look out for our brother Lobo tonight.


  81. Nevergiveup
    81 | September 10, 2010 8:36 pm

    @ rain of lead:
    Hey but Aaron Copland was probably a liberal commie bastard?


  82. Bagua
    82 | September 10, 2010 8:37 pm

    Calo wrote:

    @ Bagua:

    So, are more BOP’s likely to fail in the GOM soon?

    Only if there are a string of failures that require it to be activated, in that event, I give it a 50/50 chance of failure. There is no need for such a string of failure though, and the riser displacement prior to a second plug will likely never be done again.

    Another quick, interim solution is to add another short stack of rams on top of every BOP stack. One more sheer ram would have improved the odds considerably.

    Note that the other function of the BOP is for testing, and shutting in a stable well. For this they are great. I have suggested they rename them Blow Out Testers, as they are of questionable value as preventers.


  83. JacksonTn
    83 | September 10, 2010 8:38 pm

    @ Nevergiveup:

    Aaron Copeland? naw .. he created Popeyes Fried Chicken!!!!


  84. rain of lead
    84 | September 10, 2010 8:38 pm

    @ Nevergiveup:

    the song is to honor the heros
    couldn’t care two shits for the conductors politics


  85. savages_girl
    85 | September 10, 2010 8:39 pm

    @ Rodan:

    My Drinking thread, I have a reggae song on it!

    Hello all, back from Happy Hour!

    What did you have to drink tonight?

    I was going to make a hot toddy, what with the sore throat and all the symptoms of a typical cold, but then I made myself this:

    Ice in a short glass
    a pour of Myers dark rum
    a pour of Godiva chocolate liquer
    a pour of Bailey’s Irish cream
    and a splash of Dissarono

    I’ve feeling a little mellow…


  86. JacksonTn
    86 | September 10, 2010 8:42 pm

    Rain!!!.. hey boy … this song is for you …


  87. rain of lead
    87 | September 10, 2010 8:42 pm

    if we need something a little more peppy and partyish
    toby keith


  88. rain of lead
    88 | September 10, 2010 8:43 pm

    @ JacksonTn:

    love it
    Tim gets us


  89. Nevergiveup
    89 | September 10, 2010 8:44 pm

    rain of lead wrote:

    @ Nevergiveup:

    the song is to honor the heros
    couldn’t care two shits for the conductors politics

    OK but your link still was kaput


  90. savages_girl
    90 | September 10, 2010 8:44 pm

    @ Calo:

    Let’s look out for our brother Lobo tonight.

    he’s been getting a little more scarce lately now that he’s spending more time with Carol…


  91. rain of lead
    91 | September 10, 2010 8:45 pm

    @ JacksonTn:

    hey jt
    what’s your beer count now
    I’m 3 in and thinking #4


  92. rain of lead
    92 | September 10, 2010 8:47 pm

    @ Nevergiveup:

    oh,sorry.
    why didn’t you say so
    I guess I should double check more often
    damn youtube


  93. JacksonTn
    93 | September 10, 2010 8:51 pm

    Rain .. well, I ran out of beer so I am sending my son to the store … I have had four … I had a really tough day today dealing with corporate jerkoffs so I am thinking I may need some more beer .. I swear … if you do business with corporate types they think they own you … we will not fall for it … we have decided that we will do with less than bend over .. well, any more than we already are .. lol … so drink up son … I cannot wait till November … I wish my congressperson was history but probably not his go around …

    My son got a gator and a turtle when he was back in Florida (shhh don’t tell the peta folks) and he is making turtle soup Sunday and I am gonna fry the gator … yum .. yum …


  94. rain of lead
    94 | September 10, 2010 8:52 pm

    heh
    the awesome michelle malkin nails it

    When everything from sneakers to stuffed animals to comics to frescos to beauty queens to fast-food packaging to undies serves as dry tinder for Allah’s avengers, it’s a grand farce to feign concern about the recruitment effect of a few burnt Korans in the hands of a two-bit attention-seeker in Florida. The eternal flame of Muslim outrage was lit a long, long time ago.


  95. Bagua
    95 | September 10, 2010 8:52 pm

    JacksonTn wrote:

    My father was a SEAL and when many of them retired they did so in Ft. Lauderdale and got together and found that in the early 70s they could go to work for the oil industry as divers on the oil rigs … because really where do you go with the skills they had … at that time not many regular civilians knew how to dive and the guys went into the hard hat diving on the rigs … it was a time of great economic push and created a great living for many people in south Louisiana … I saw the turn around 85 when many businesses when under down on Peters Road and then it came back some but not like it was …

    I hope that this thing that happened with BP does not become something that totally kicks this industry down … I know that Obama and the dems would love to see the oil fields go by the wayside … but I can tell you that many many people have raised many families from the oil fields offshore of Louisiana and it would be a shame to take this one accident and make it a cause for them to push their agenda …

    I bet most people are not even aware of how many businesses live off the oil fields … small businesses who make their living … boat captains … catering business … supply companies … it sounds easy to just say let’s do away with offshore drilling but they don’t understand how many people are actually affected .. or maybe they do and just do not care ..

    Great post, thank you for the history.

    Spot on about the economic realities of this Cap and Trade by Fiat. The economic devastation is already vast, and greatly more than any loss to fishing, which is tiny in economic comparison.

    The long term damage appears highly likely at this point. Permits are simply not being approved, even shallow water spar wells that have no subsea riser or valves! Rumour is, that this will continue indefinitely.

    In the case of deepwater exploration, which is where all the oil and gas happens to be, a moratorium long enough to see off the drilling rigs will do long term damage. Once they leave, they are likely not coming back. They will be on long term contracts in Brazil and such. Building new rigs will takes years.

    Also, now that we see that the $75 million dollar statutory liability limit meant to encourage drilling is a joke, and that the US is always just one election away from becoming a Banana Republic where the President bypassed the laws and companies can no longer feel secure in their recourse to the courts, what company will want to drill here if they have an alternative?

    The devastation to a crucial and profitable industry is shocking to behold.


  96. rain of lead
    96 | September 10, 2010 8:53 pm

    @ JacksonTn:

    mmmmmm gator!
    /homer drool


  97. Nevergiveup
    97 | September 10, 2010 8:53 pm

    OK now for a little US Marine Humor


  98. gulfloafer
    98 | September 10, 2010 8:54 pm

    @ JacksonTn:
    What kind of turtle? Just curious, never had turtle soup.


  99. yenta-fada
    99 | September 10, 2010 8:54 pm

    savages_girl wrote:

    @ Calo:
    Let’s look out for our brother Lobo tonight.
    he’s been getting a little more scarce lately now that he’s spending more time with Carol…

    I think Calo was talking about lobo’s bad news. His deployment to Afghanistan has not been approved! No job and no contributions to his military pension.


  100. Bagua
    100 | September 10, 2010 8:54 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ Bagua:

    My Drinking thread, I have a reggae song on it!
    Hello all, back from Happy Hour!

    Good way to end the week.


  101. 101 | September 10, 2010 8:56 pm

    Wife is home after a week absense and the kids are knocking her around for the time being, I have a case of Kostritzer fresh in from the beer store tha I am going to get intimate with over the next few hours.

    free at last lord free at last


  102. livefreeor die
    102 | September 10, 2010 8:58 pm

    rain of lead wrote:

    hey blogmockers
    since this is friday and 9/11 eve
    I suggest we raise out glasses and propose a toast to the Heros of 9/11
    Fanfare for the common man.

    Amen to that. I find that on 9/10 I feel that I am about to embark on a long vigil. I spend 9/11 rewatching the real time footage from that morning (one hats off I’ll give to MSNBC) and I spend the rest of the day thinking about the families affected by that day. My parents’ friends lost two of their three children on that day. One of their sons had two young children. I wonder how those parents cope with each day and what those children remember, if anything, about their father. I feel we owe it to all those who died on 9/11 and their families and friends to always remember the raw emotions we experienced that day and stay vigilant.
    Sorry if I’m rambling.


  103. m
    103 | September 10, 2010 8:59 pm

    @ rain of lead:

    *clink*


  104. Calo
    104 | September 10, 2010 9:00 pm

    @ savages_girl:
    No SG -- he is not going to Afghanistan. That is what I mean.


  105. Nevergiveup
    105 | September 10, 2010 9:02 pm

    yenta-fada wrote:

    savages_girl wrote:

    @ Calo:
    Let’s look out for our brother Lobo tonight.
    he’s been getting a little more scarce lately now that he’s spending more time with Carol…

    I think Calo was talking about lobo’s bad news. His deployment to Afghanistan has not been approved! No job and no contributions to his military pension.

    Gee I had not heard that. Not surprised knowing how the Military works. But sorry. That sucks for him.


  106. yenta-fada
    106 | September 10, 2010 9:03 pm

    @ livefreeor die:

    You most certainly not rambling. It’s still very fresh in the minds of many people all over the world.


  107. savages_girl
    107 | September 10, 2010 9:03 pm

    @ yenta-fada:

    I think Calo was talking about lobo’s bad news. His deployment to Afghanistan has not been approved! No job and no contributions to his military pension.

    OH NO!

    I didn’t know.

    OK, I know he wants to go, but the more involved he gets with Carol, is he really going to want to leave when his personal life is on an upswing?


  108. rain of lead
    108 | September 10, 2010 9:05 pm

    random vid found ou youtube


  109. yenta-fada
    109 | September 10, 2010 9:06 pm

    savages_girl wrote:

    @ yenta-fada:
    I think Calo was talking about lobo’s bad news. His deployment to Afghanistan has not been approved! No job and no contributions to his military pension.
    OH NO!
    I didn’t know.
    OK, I know he wants to go, but the more involved he gets with Carol, is he really going to want to leave when his personal life is on an upswing?

    I’m sure he doesn’t want to leave Carol, Leia, and his home. However, he’s a proud man and being without meaningful work has to be hard on him. So many bloggers here are in the same position. Never thought I would see this.


  110. Lily
    110 | September 10, 2010 9:08 pm

    @ JacksonTn:

    Indeed there are many business’s that get their business from
    the off-shore oil rigs. It will devasate us here in Louisiana.


  111. Calo
    111 | September 10, 2010 9:08 pm

    @ yenta-fada:
    Yeah -- what she said.
    Thank you Yenta.


  112. Bagua
    112 | September 10, 2010 9:10 pm

    Lily wrote:

    @ JacksonTn:

    Indeed there are many business’s that get their business from
    the off-shore oil rigs. It will devasate us here in Louisiana.

    Spot on.


  113. Calo
    113 | September 10, 2010 9:11 pm

    @ Bagua:
    And Bagua, thank you for such an informative post -- again.


  114. Lily
    114 | September 10, 2010 9:11 pm

    Calo wrote:

    @ savages_girl:
    No SG – he is not going to Afghanistan. That is what I mean.

    I know I read that when lobo posted that. That means his retirement is gone from the military too. What a horrible break for him.


  115. Lily
    115 | September 10, 2010 9:16 pm

    @ yenta-fada:

    Hey {yenta} and yes there are many bloggers that are out of jobs.
    It is like the early 80′s but worse with this horrible health care bill. And more and more money being thrown around at the wrong things.
    Oh and the doc’s office can’t take blood anymore ….you have to go to go the hospital now for a simple blood test. The doc said say thank you to obamacare…..


  116. Bagua
    116 | September 10, 2010 9:17 pm

    Calo wrote:

    @ Bagua:

    And Bagua, thank you for such an informative post – again.

    My pleasure Calo.


  117. Calo
    117 | September 10, 2010 9:19 pm

    Lily wrote:

    @ yenta-fada:
    Hey {yenta} and yes there are many bloggers that are out of jobs.
    It is like the early 80′s but worse with this horrible health care bill. And more and more money being thrown around at the wrong things.
    Oh and the doc’s office can’t take blood anymore ….you have to go to go the hospital now for a simple blood test. The doc said say thank you to obamacare…..

    Does that mean you are going in for outpatient care in a non-approved facility for your blood draws?


  118. Calo
    118 | September 10, 2010 9:22 pm

    @ Bagua:
    Just call me strepsirrhine. Heh.


  119. Lily
    119 | September 10, 2010 9:23 pm

    Calo wrote:

    Lily wrote:
    @ yenta-fada:
    Hey {yenta} and yes there are many bloggers that are out of jobs.
    It is like the early 80′s but worse with this horrible health care bill. And more and more money being thrown around at the wrong things.
    Oh and the doc’s office can’t take blood anymore ….you have to go to go the hospital now for a simple blood test. The doc said say thank you to obamacare…..
    Does that mean you are going in for outpatient care in a non-approved facility for your blood draws?

    Husband had to have bloodwork done. Normally they always took the blood at the doc’s office ….since obamacare..he has to go to the hospital.
    For me it was p/t Friday!
    I am so glad your surgery went well and you have re-couped well too.
    I offered up my pain for you and said a little prayer for you too.
    So how much longer on crutches?


  120. Calo
    120 | September 10, 2010 9:26 pm

    @ Lily:
    About 3 to 4 more weeks. All the reason to become an ex-smoker my friend -- bones take longer to heal.
    *Oh -- now I sound like an ex-smoker and I hate those people.*


  121. Lily
    121 | September 10, 2010 9:28 pm

    Calo wrote:

    @ Lily:
    About 3 to 4 more weeks. All the reason to become an ex-smoker my friend – bones take longer to heal.
    *Oh – now I sound like an ex-smoker and I hate those people.*

    Have you totally quit?
    /if so great for you. :)


  122. snowcrash
    122 | September 10, 2010 10:03 pm

    As usual, great post on the subject. Do you think, in the end, the complete breakdown of systems is because standard procedures or protocols were not followed? I guess I am wondering if at any one step in the cascade of events, if a human had re-acted in a different way, could the whole outcome been changed? The focus has seemed to be on the mechanical side of the equation.


  123. snowcrash
    123 | September 10, 2010 10:26 pm

    @ snowcrash:
    Like early on with the changes in the mud. If someone was monitoring the mud situation and reacted differently, different outcome. There has to be some kind of industry standards right?


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