It seems that there is no real good news on the economy today. The spinmeisters spin, but the raw truth is that we are in a place of pain like the Country has only seen once before. That once before being the Great Depression. And Ben Bernanke says that this is going to last at least another five years. That doesn’t include the massive and on-going loss of wealth in the housing market. That won’t recover in another ten years, at least. Most likely, that won’t recover ever.
The bright spot in the economy, if it can be said to have a bright spot, is that there has been little inflation seen. Yet. And it is that “yet” that is troubling to me. Inflation is a thief that robs the rich and poor alike. And it may be returning with a vengance. Consider the following:
The international monetary system set up at Bretton Woods in 1944 is on the verge of breaking down. It could still be saved by heroic measures, especially if these were taken in the United States. They would include an immediate slash in projected government expenditures, an immediate balancing of the budget, and a halt in any further increase in the stock of money.
But in the present political and ideological atmosphere, these measures are very unlikely.
Parallel measures are even more unlikely in Britain or in France. The government in Britain will never give up its socialistic obsessions. In France, Nicolas Sarkozy is caught in a chronic dilemma of either yielding to untenable wage demands or having his country paralyzed by strikes.
And nearly every other country, in varying degree, now operates on the fixed assumption that at least some inflation, some constant increase in its stock of paper money, is necessary to prevent an economic slowdown or setback.
The four paragraphs above–substituting “Charles de Gaulle” for “Sarkozy” and adding “Labor” before “government in Britain”–appeared at the beginning of a Los Angeles Times editorial written by Henry Hazlitt in March of 1969. The editorial concluded that the U.S. was certain to leave the gold standard and commence an inflationary devaluation, with resulting economic chaos.
Two years later, President Nixon appeared on national television to “suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold.” The second part of Hazlitt’s prediction took longer to manifest itself. In fact, the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index sank from 5.2% when Hazlitt wrote the editorial to 2.7% in 1972. Initially it seemed Nixon was correct that suspending convertibility would paradoxically “protect the position of the American dollar.” A speculator betting on inflation 1969 would have gone broke.
That sounds like good news! No inflation then equals no inflation now, right? Not so fast. Remember the wonderful economic times in the ’70s?
But what Hazlitt knew, and Nixon didn’t, is that inflation has great momentum. The price level can withstand significant monetary abuse, but once inflationary expectations cement they are impossible to dislodge without extreme economic and political pain, as Ford, Carter, and Reagan soon discovered.
The similarities between then and now are obvious. Despite the Republican takeover in the House, there is no chance of restraint at the Fed or a balanced budget. The tax deal passed in the lame-duck session will add nearly $1 trillion in deficits, most of which the Fed will be forced to monetize.
Although the Conservatives have gained power in Britain, their “austerity” plan is to return spending back to 2007 levels–in terms of projected GDP. Nominal spending is set to increase. Meanwhile, France continues to have strikes, as do Britain, Ireland, Italy and Greece.
The inflation rate has fallen for the past three years, as it did between 1969 and 1972, but monetary policy has caused commodity prices to surge back to 2008 bubble highs despite rising unemployment. Anecdotal evidence of pricing turmoil for foreign producers of intermediate goods suggests that inflation is already lurking just offshore, preparing to crash into the economy. The higher costs will cause commerce to freeze, as it did in 2008, or else the inflation spiral will again begin in earnest. Either way, European-style protests will soon come to these shores as well.
There’s my sunshine! This puts into words my personal economic fears. I am not an economist, but I see danger signs all around me. The center falls apart, the edges cannot hold. Our current level of spending is clearly unsustainable, but where will the cuts come from? Defense? That is unwise. But as we have seen in Europe, the people on the paying end of “entitlements” will not simply take it when those “entitlements” stop being paid. Riots in America like in Greece are entirely possible when the parasite class begins to feel the pain.
What can be done? On a macro level, I am not sure that Anything can be done. The Republican House can propose, but Harry Reid’s Senate has already promised to dispose of anything positive that the Republicans accomplish in the House. We are in for two years of gridlock in the Legislature, which is far better than two more years of the Pelosie-Reid-Obama spending machine that has put us so deep in this hole. On a macro level it may be that nothing can be done, but on a personal level we can prepare:
In the current cycle, the dollar and the Dow began deflating in 1999. With gold at $1,400 and oil at $90, the dollar and the Dow have declined by nearly 80% against both. To match the 1970s, they would have to lose another 80% against gold and another 60% against oil, implying gold at $7,000 and oil over $200. Given that the current monetary abuse is far worse than in the 1960s and 1970s, these figures are conservative.
Bretton Woods II is collapsing. The seductive Keynesian policies that fiscal and monetary authorities have followed for decades will soon cause the end of dollar hegemony. The United States is entering its third consecutive year of deficits greater than $1 trillion coupled with continuing dramatic increases in the stock of money. Devaluation and economic chaos are guaranteed, just as they were in 1969. Fortunately, unlike in 1969, gold ownership is legal. Those who understand free markets can still preserve the capital that will be needed to restore American prosperity after the deluge.
Please note, both of the articles referenced in this piece are in Forbes Magazine, hardly an apocalyptic conspiracy-based publication. With anything, consider the source, and I’d say the source on this is as good as you can get in tthe financial world. After the Obama Boom, the deluge is coming. Inflation, perhaps even hyper-inflation is probably just around the corner. Bernanke is monetizing debt to the tune of $600 billion and simply hoping that the “great momentum” of inflation stays in check. That seems unlikely in the medium and long term, but then the current leadership doesn’t appear to think much beyond the next 24-hour news cycle, so truly long term thinking is not to be expected.
Tags: Economic Collapse, Inflation
First?
@ Beeduwine:
First.
For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still. By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. And I do not know which makes a man more conservative – to know nothing but the present, or nothing but the past.
And what does reward virtue? You think the communist commissar rewards virtue? You think a Hitler rewards virtue? You think, excuse me, if you’ll pardon me, American presidents reward virtue? Do they choose their appointees on the basis of the virtue of the people appointed or on the basis of their political clout? Columbus did not seek a new route to the Indies in response to a majority directive!
I am favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it’s possible.
IMHO.
I disagree that inflation has not kicked in.Then again my economic understanding is simple and home based. Anyone who uses fuel for whatever purpose or shops for groceries knows prices are escalating.. Back in the 70s(yeah,I remember them too) these were the key indicators of inflation. Some prices doubled in a week. It was baaaaad.
@ Beeduwine:
I concur.
This in a roundabout way goes with my last post downthread.
Like it or not, we MUST play their games, because the perception of the ignorant is EVERYTHING in our country – like it or not.
We can talk about how education has failed our electorate, how we are fighting the “good fight,” and that Progressive policy makes no sense when facing the most basic tests of logic, but to repeat a tired cliche : “It is what it is.”
If we refuse to play the cards that we’re dealt or to play by the same rules that the opposition plays by, we are toast.
vagabond trader wrote:
I am starting to notice that even at Trader Joe’s, prices are slowly rising.
@ Speranza:
…and portions are smaller, often to mask inflation.
Did Charles fall for another photoshop?
…
371 Charles
Sun, Jan 9, 2011 10:20:26pm
9
down
up
report
Well, it turns out that Jared Lee Loughner is a registered Republican.
[Link: http://lauramartin.tumblr.com/post/2680767575/jared-lee-loughner-is-a-registered-republican-giffords
…
And then this:
http://www.fireandreamitchell.com/2011/01/09/jared-loughner-is-registered-as-an-independent-and-last-voted-in-the-2008/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FireAndreaMitchell+(Fire+Andrea+Mitchell!+Exposing+Liberal+bias+cause+the+MSM+doesn't+have+to.)
If it is a hoax, then the swampies have poop on their faces. They fact checked the wrong asses.
Oh, we are most assuredly in the eye of the hurricane with dark clouds surrounding us. We should not be decieved by the sunlight upon us; we should prepare ourselves for the next wall of the storm because it will be far worse that the last.
Beeduwine wrote:
Asses don’t fact check, especially liberal asses
@ MacDuff:
Arrrrrrrrr!!!
Lash the mast and get the guns below deck, mateys!!!
@ Nevergiveup:
Oh, you can check an ass for facts. I have seen some nasty outbreaks in my time.
@ MacDuff:
Totally agree with you on this. There is a big econmic boom coming but it won’t be a good thing. Inflation is the big elephant in the rroom that will consume us. If it hits, we will be in a world of hurt.
Question: Would it be best to purchase a lot of items now, then wait on the inflation to pay off the debt since you will be paying for it with less expensive dollars? Also, don’t pay your mortgage off now but wait to see if the inflation hitsd in the next year.
Beeduwine wrote:
Well you can check a ass for cracks and that’s a fact jack
we are doomed. ™
at least for a time. unfortunately, it sure seems like it’s going to be a long time. this situation did not create itself overnight. no, the progs have been working at it for 100 years or more. it won’t be solved overnight or in one election cycle.
Glen Reynolds: The Arizona Tragedy and the Politics of Blood Libel
Is it possible Jared Lee never heard of the Ten Commandments? Simply a product of his public education…
this is the Arizona Secretary of State website.
http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterinformation.htm
how the hell does one find out who is registered??
you have to have voter id or drivers license number to search for a particular person
https://voter.azsos.gov/VoterView/RegistrantSearch.do
@ Beeduwine:
Btw, that post was just a random selection of quotes. The first part is Keynes and the second is Friedman.
But the “IMHO” is mine.
By the way just so if anybody thinks that the Feds have learned ANYTHING from 9/11. Remember how all the Intels were suppose to share intelligence. Well this punk kid got shit canned by the Army. Obviously something turned up that disturbed the Army. But Later the FBI OKs him for a gun permit. Brilliant, just brilliant.
The Osprey wrote:
I have that as a thread later today.
I have bad news here. The economy has inflated. Rising prices as measured by the cpi is merely a symptom, that we will feel in the very near future. The fed has already turned on the printing presses and devalued the currency, along with the wonderful QE2 scheme. The interest rates are starting to tick upwards at the lowest levels, and will begin to be noticed very soon. Your bank will soon send out a letter offering a, “great,” variable rate mortgage with a rediculously low introductory rate. They will probably also offer to waive most of the closing costs if not all. Let me implore you to stay with the fixed rate now. Anyone caught in a variable rate mortgage a year from now will be screwed.
MikeA wrote:
I bet banks will be quick to forclose on loans where the inflated value of the home is much greater than the loan.
@ Beeduwine:
5′ of snow here whahoo!
no work for me, gonna stay home and play
@ rain of lead:
inches, not feet
MikeA wrote:
Everyone’s situation is different, so advice is a fool’s errand unless one is an expert (which I am not).
As for me, I cashed in some investments a coupe of years ago and built on an addition to my house, in leiu of moving. I have a very low rate and only a small amount left on the mortgage. I also ensured that both like-cars were paid for. I avoid debt as much as I can. Most recently, I’m putting a metal roof on my house that should last 45-50 years (I’m 57, so this will likely be the last roof I’ll be buying – one less thing to worry about). I set aside some money and paid cash. I’m currently on a fixed income, and my wife will also be in less than 10 years, so I’m just trying to prepare for that.
Like I said, I think a good rule of thumb is to have as little debt as possible. The trick is not how much you make, but how much you have to spend. Personally, I think that’s a pretty good rule where ever you are on life’s trail. But that’s just my opinion.
Nevergiveup wrote:
I thought it was a background check.
Socialists want a no strike rule for gun ownership.
Prebanned wrote:
You’re right, though, everybody that knew this guy knew he was a loon.
@ Prebanned:
the county where I live is going to
re-assess the value of properties
this year. I’m pretty sure I’m gonna
lose about 20 grand on evaluation.
they wanted to do inside your house
evals….lol that idea was a lead balloon
they ain’t gonna see shit in my house
rain of lead wrote:
Why does the internet encourage exaggeration?
OT – A real American hero’s death was announced yesterday. Major Dick Winters died on Jan. 2nd, but news of his death was kept silent until it was leaked yesterday.
Those who have seen “Band of Brothers” know his story.
http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/01/dick_winters_who_inspired_band.html
@ Prebanned:
But how can they foreclose on a loan you are paying on according to the agreement. What I am saying is if you have the money now to pay your mortgage, don’t… Buy more tangible assets (gold, food, ammo, etc..) and then wait for the inflation to hit the money. Pay the mortgage off with the devalued dollars. Just a thought…
@ MacDuff:
I was thinking of a metal roof…but
my neighbors would nt like it
@ mawskrat:
Sounds like a good year not to mow the yard.
@ MacDuff:
Totally agree. The only debt I have right now is my mortgage which I am paying extra on to pay off as fast as possible. I am also stocking up on long-term storage food ( not to sound like a survivialist but it could come in handy…) I feel the next few years are gonna be the “interesting times” you hear about in the chinese curse…
Prebanned wrote:
It should have been in a background check that the Army rejected him
@ mawskrat:
Losing assessed value can be a good thing,unless the mil rate goes way up. Years ago I talked the town assessor into lopping off a good chunk which led to lower taxes for a few years.
mawskrat wrote:
I had a 550 sf sunroom built on the back of my house. Before the damned thing was even done, the property assessors were in the back, snooping around and making notes. It just pisses me off when you pay good money to improve your home and are penalized in the form of property taxes.
Yeah, this is an old complaint, but it’s a major sore spot. It’s another case of taxing self improvement.
@ Nevergiveup:
I heard he failed a drug test,not sure if that is true or not.
vagabond trader wrote:
That’s what the rumor is
MikeA wrote:
I agree, but have at least a couple months mortgage payment set aside, whatever you have to do pay that mortgage.
@ Nevergiveup:
Government efficiency.
Plenty more of this bs coming our way this week.We’re supposed to apologize next?
@ Beeduwine:
It is a hoax, a photoshop. The local Tucson papers have the scoop on his voter registration. He last voted in 2008 and was registered as an independent.
I’d post links but am running late to work. Check Insty, he’s got the info.
vagabond trader wrote:
NO OPRAHISM, PEOPLE!
@ MacDuff:
I have heard stories about peoples properties being assessed above market value. The value went up every year. They were delighted, until they tried to sell.
Of course, they aren’t getting any taxes back.
mawskrat wrote:
I house a couple of blocks away has one and it looks pretty good, different but good. It has a nice clean appearance and looks nothing like a barn or one of those old tin roofs. As for the neighbors, f–k ‘em; I’ll give them a vote when they kick in some maintenance costs.
As for the cost, it’s a bit more, but these shingles seem to last shorter and shorter periods of time, 45-50 years sounds good to me.
My house is a “Califirnia ranch” with a low-slope roof and wide eaves, I picked sort of a clay color and I think it’s going to look great!
@ MacDuff:
yeh you get a building permit here and your taxes
go up.lol
//what finished basement and new bathroom
tool room and laundry room
@ Prebanned:
I do. I have about 9 months of living expenses set aside. Could go longer if the wife starts working full time (shes a COTA and there are plenty of jobs available, she is just burned out working with the senior population) and I take what ever job I can find.
mawskrat wrote:
Yup, same here. That’s what gave me away.
Prebanned wrote:
in the really rich hood near me the property
owners keep some live stock for show so they
get taxed at farm rates
@ MacDuff:
Wish we had gone with metal,it does look good and you’re right,the newer shingles are krap.We just had to clean ours,which of course loosens the grit and shortens the life.
MacDuff wrote:
My in-laws put a barn style tin roof on back before the pretty metal
was available, in 1966. I guess they will get the pretty stuff when this one wears out.
@ mawskrat:
Hmmm,have to look into that.
@ MikeA:
Heck ya. Cash is real handy.
I have a cape cod and I think copper would look
great…of corse it would be ripped off in a week
mawskrat wrote:
Rich people keep cows around here so they can write off thier new trucks.
mawskrat wrote:
$4.50 a pound. see if you can get a verdigris colored metal roof.
@ The Osprey:
Geez, Imagine That&trade. Chuclkles the Clown fooled by a Fauxtoshop© because it showed what he wanted to see. Think he’ll print a retraction? Oh, yeah, that’s right, he doesn’t do retractions…
Nevergiveup wrote:
Uh, no they don’t/didn’t. The FBI doesn’t run background checks for gun purchases.
Oh, and he bought a gun – he didn’t apply for a permit, federal or otherwise. There’s no such thing for any weapon other than a Class II weapon at the federal level, and most states don’t have gun permits, either.
Mike C. wrote:
The gun shop owner said that is where he sent fro background check before selling him the gun. If it was local police, what kind of half ass check did they do?
Iron Fist wrote:
Naah, He will delete the thread and ban everybody that asks about it.
Heh.
do to counter Republican attacks “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,” Obama said at a Philadelphia fundraiser Friday night. “Because from what I understand folks in Philly like a good brawl. I’ve seen Eagles fans.”
The comment drew some laughs and applause. But it also struck a chord with his Republican rival. John McCain’s campaign immediately accused the Democratic candidate of playing the politics of fear. They also mentioned that Obama said he would use a gun that would be illegal under Obama’s plans to cut down on illegal firearms.
“Barack Obama’s call for ‘new politics’ is officially over. In just 24 hours, Barack Obama attacked one of America’s pioneering women CEOs, rejected a series of joint bipartisan town halls, and said that if there’s a political knife fight, he’d bring a gun,” McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said in a statement.
Obama made the comment in the context of warning donors that the general election campaign against McCain could get ugly. “They’re going to try to scare people. They’re going to try to say that ‘that Obama is a scary guy,’” he said. A supporter yelled out a deep accented “Don’t give in!”
“I won’t but that sounded pretty scary. You’re a tough guy,” Obama said.
Nice
@ Nevergiveup:
They ran a standard Brady check just like any gun shop does. If there’s no connection or database problem, that only takes a few minutes. It’s an automated database search.
Prebanned wrote:
1966? That kinda says a loy about durability, no? If I were a company manufacturing asphalt/fiberglas shingles, I’d be seeing the future as grim, to say the least. I wanted to get the metal roof that looked like those southwest clay/ceramic roofs – it would have looked so friggin cool, but it was cost prohibitive and the warranty wasn’t as long.
These metal roofs are the wave of the future; people are just getting tired of “20 year shingles” that maybe last 10-15 years. In the 21st century it’s incomprehensible that something as simple as a friggin’ roof can only have a usable life of some 15 years. This ain’t brain surgery!
@ MacDuff:
It was put on with nails, many replaced with screws. Every 8 years or so must be painted with sikver paint or it would rust out in about 10 years.
Modern metal is protected with Galvalume, and the paint is very good.
Get the 30 year warrenty for paint, and there is no telling how long it would last.
@ Mike C.:
You can’t really expect that background check to to anything substantive, anyway. There is no way you can keep the bad guys from getting guns. It simply can’t be done. I posted a link over the weekend to where a spree shooter in Italy killed four people. Just not as high profile people, and it wouldn’t promote a certain agenda, so you don’t hear about that.
@ Prebanned:
sikver, silver?
meeting time BBL
@ Iron Fist:
In Mexico, bad guys can only get .380′s it is much better.
How can the market recover something that didn’t really exist in the first place? No, it isn’t about recovering, the valuation of homes was the largest Ponzi scheme in history, people borrowing, buying and selling against a hyper-inflated index which represented something that genuinely didnt exist.
It took 20 years for Berrnie Madoffs victims to find out that he was a fraud, make no mistake about it, the housing market’s hyper-inflation valuation index is exactly the same kind of Ponzi scheme as Berrnie Madoff was running.
Yes, some people, those who got in early did seem to make exactly the kind’s of profits that Berrnie Madoff promised, but that dopesnt change the fact that for every one of his victims who seemed to make a profit 1000 of his victims lost money.
The vast majority of his victims didn’t even realize they were loosing their money because all they saw was the market index statements that told them their stock shares were worth x an amount, they had no idea that the value of their stock was being reported at 100 times what it was worth.
From 1970 until 2007 home values appreciated at 20 percent on average. Anyone who has ever invested knows that a 20 percent return only exists in a high risk environment. Home values are not a high risk environment.
Just as Berrnie Madoffs victims eventually had to face the reality that they had been swindled and were never going to more than a fraction of their money back, so those of you in the housing market need to accept that fact that you have been swindled.
You are never going to get your money back, home values are never going back up where they were since they were never really there to start with.
Those so called profits were in reality nothing more than you spending the money of other people who were also victims of the same Ponzi scheme.
Wake the hell up, because it going to get a lot worse. The average home value is…. $14,500.00, in other words, home prices still have a factor of 10 to fall before they hit the bottom.
Or, to put it another way, inflation still has a factor of 10 to increase before it stops raising. Go on though, keep clinging to the Berrnie Madoff share report telling you that your house is worth 10 times what it is really worth and keep wondering where the hell all your money went.
@ Nevergiveup:
Quite a short memory span these people have. We endured eight years of posters of W with bullet holes in his forehead, fantasy films about his assassination and not-so-subtle calls for his murder; “assassins wanted”, “where is Lee Harvey Oswald when you need him”.
The duplicity is breathtaking.
Mike C. wrote:
OK but ig the Army found something wrong with him, wouldn’t it be a good idea to enter that into the database to warn any other inguiring agency?
MacDuff wrote:
Yes but SOP
Mike C. wrote:
There’s actually some variation, depending on the state.
In Colorado, for example, they don’t use the federal NICS system. The Colorado Bureau of Investigation has its own system.
The federal one is NOT run by the FBI, BTW. It’s operated by a contractor.
In any case, the fact that Loughner was rejected for military service wouldn’t be reported, because it’s not, in and of itself, a disqualiying factor for a gun purchase.
@ Nevergiveup:
All that goes into that database is information that would disqualify someone from buying a gun.
Failing a urinalysis at MEPS is not such information.
@ MacDuff:
I put a metal roof on my (rural) home about 3 years ago. Sheet steel with a baked-on finish in “Melcher’s Green”. which is a medium green. I expect it to outlast me. I also ripped off the old hail-damaged wooden and vinyl siding, and went with stucco. Basically low-to-zero maintenance requirements for both outside walls and roof.
It cost a fair bit, but I had an insurance settlement for hail damage to roof and siding that paid better than half of it, and the value goes right into my property value anyway. I didn’t kiss the money goodbye, just put it into long-term storage.
lobo91 wrote:
OK, but perhaps it should be
@ doriangrey:
You are very much correct in this. Housing has risen at an astronomical rate and had nothing to back it up. Of course, this occurred in only a few markets. Check out the cost of a house in rural Kansas or Nebraska and you will see them a little more “normal”. My parents bought their house in NYC in 1967 for $40K. Its now worth between $900K and $1.1 Mil. ANd they do get people knocking on their door asking them if they want to sell since they are older (80′s) and of course should be moving to Florida. (which they are not). Its amazing.
@ doriangrey:
That may be the best analysis I have seen this week. The community reinvestment act pushed prices for residential real estate well beyond their value. the truly disheartening thing is that Fannie and Freddie have been left untouched. The root cause of the ponzi scheme is still there.
@ Nevergiveup:
The main things that will disqualify someone are felony convictions, domestic violence convictions (felony or misdemeanor), and having been involuntarily committed.
The information that goes in there has to be something that works in a yes/no manner. It’s not something that’s up to a person to look at someone’s file and make a decision.
Good morning. Remember when our leading voices were
warning us not to jump to any conclusions about the
Fort Hood Shootings, “Wait for information & don’t link
to Islam.”
Now on the other hand listening to them you would think
that Sarah Palin helped the Tucson shooter.
lobo91 wrote:
I understand, but anyone stupid enough to toke up before peeing for the Military should not be armed since they would surely be dangerous!
RIX wrote:
I doubt this kid ever read anything PALIN has written, on the other hand, he has read Hitler and Lenin????
RIX wrote:
That is because it is obvious that finally they are have a perp that is not a member of the ropma.
Never let a crisis go to waste.
@ lobo91:
Yeah. Being rejected by the Army, in and of itself, is not any kind of indication at all of fitness to own a gun. One could be rejected for some sort of health issue, or could simply be that the applicant didn’t bring to the table anything the Army could use.
But if someone were to be rejected because he was deemed to be mentally ill, that should go into the system.
Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder should be classified as “reportable mental illnesses”, and any person so diagnosed should go on the list of people disallowed to own firearms or other weapons.
@ Alberta Oil Peon:
IF, and yes that’s a big if, as reported he failed a pee test, that oughta be reportable
Gee,no disrespect to those affected but I do not recall this kind of public display when the Soldier of Islam™ did his murders at Ft Hood.
@ Flyovercountry:
Hmmm…or should that be Pelosi Scheme?
vagabond trader wrote:
Well they did hold a memorial service that Obama attended and spoke at, at Ft Hood a few days later.
@ Nevergiveup:
Well that is expected from the CinC,no? Did congress shut down and was it on the news 24/7?
Nevergiveup wrote:
You’ll get no argument from me on that. Anyone so heavily into drugs that they cannot “study up” for a urine test by not indulging for few days or weeks is not likely to be the sort of person you want owning firearms.
vagabond trader wrote:
It was on the News alot yes. Congress did not shut down, but wasn’t it in the Summer anyway?
@ Nevergiveup:
Come on Doc,they are playing it and we all know it.
Macker wrote:
I think we should petition the rulers of the universe to make this the new lexicon. It is so much more fitting.
@ vagabond trader:
One of the Ruling Class got hit here. That isn’t ever supposed to happen, and it freaks them out. Your gun controllers have been waiting on something like this to happen. They already had legislation drawn up that they intend to introduce today. Speaking of freaks, did y’all see this on Drudge?
Nuts, but they are gay nuts, so no one will pay them any mind. There are crazies everywhere.
vagabond trader wrote:
No I know and I am not disagreeing with you. But so far Obama, himself, has not acted to outragesouly
Flyovercountry wrote:
We actually have Michael Savage to thank for this one!
@ Iron Fist:
Common sense does exist in some of them
@ vagabond trader:
That is good news. I don’t have any problems whatsoever with congressmen who support the Second Amendment carrying weapons for their own defense. I have a problem with the ones that think that gun ownership should be a privilege of the Ruling Class, though. Diane Feinstine comes to mind as an example.
@ Iron Fist:
Yup,like the ones who will be demanding taxpayer funded protection as they attempt to deny the unwashed masses of our right to self protection.
By the way not that it matters, but only for information. The little 9 year old girl who was killed is the granddaughter of Dallas Green. Former Manager of the Phillies, Mets, and Yankees. And her dad is scout for the LA Dodgers.
Nevergiveup wrote:
That would exclude most of Congress if it included prescription drugs
@ Nevergiveup:
@ Nevergiveup:
I agree with that & the libs are sounding ridiculous.
This poor woman was his rep & therefore a target of
opportunity.
He doesn’t strike me as a right wing nut, just a nut.
waldensianspirit wrote:
Actually RX Drugs will not cause to to fail a pee test as long as you can document they are legal.
@ Iron Fist:
Excellent post, IF!
Some of us are old enough to remember the Nixon years. I do — which is very odd, since I’m only 39.
Well, I was too young to be interested in the subject myself, but I remember my father (an economist) discussing and explaining what was going on.
@ vagabond trader:
It’s tragic
@ RIX:
Isn’t it reported he had put his government and language question to her in 2007 at an event and was mad she didn’t answer what he wanted to hear?
@ citizen_q:
No doubt. If this was a RoPer we would be admonished
to cool the rhetoric & don’t link to Islam
@ Nevergiveup:
Loughner stole the most from her.
In other
newsblood libelwaldensianspirit wrote:
But that’s impossible since we all know the Tea Party is responsible for this and there was no Tea Party in 2007?????
/
You can do some things. Begin by investing in hard assets. Start stockpiling food, especially items with a long shelf life but remember to eat the older of your stock first. Try and make purchases that you know you will need soon, new car, tires, etc. Pay off any debt with a variable interest rate, with high inflation comes high interest rates. Don’t pay off debts with a fixed rate unless you are on a fixed income, it will be cheaper to pay later with dollars that are worth less. Start gardening. Load up on ammo.
@ vagabond trader:
Hey! I thought it was sharks with AIDS!
@ vagabond trader:
Tell the Egyptians to keep it in their pants, and that should solve the Aids problem.
@ Nevergiveup:
Here ya go.
@ waldensianspirit:
RIX wrote:
She is also Jewish and he was very anti-Semitic. Where is the condemnation of the anti-Semitic rhetoric from the left?
vagabond trader wrote:
Of course, but that will not get in the way of the Liberals
Hey, wait a minute. If Loughner is a registered independant – is not CJ an independant these days?
Just saying is all.
@ vagabond trader:
Yep that’s it! Thanks, I didn’t have links on it yet. Heard it from a friend
Oh dear,this couldn’t be true,could it?
Nevergiveup wrote:
They’ll just go back and blame George W. Bush.
Beeduwine wrote:
great point. wish I had a sock
Macker wrote:
Well OK that makes more sense!
/
waldensianspirit wrote:
I heard that he was not happy that his name was not
spelled correctly.
This guy palyed on the extremes of Left & Right.
@ wolfie:
Hey,I was a kid during the Nixon years and remember my Dad expressing his opinions on rising prices, better left unsaid.
Rancher wrote:
Yeah, I’m waiting to hear that. Any minute………
Beeduwine wrote:
independent. The foreign DNA kicked in.
As to the Army I heard they reported he failed a urinalysis for marijuana.
Beeduwine wrote:
Nevergiveup wrote:
Use my sock then. It is called WindUpBird and the password is imunchass123.
vagabond trader wrote:
Holy carp!
vagabond trader wrote:
Maybe. The name is wrong though which needs checking
@ doriangrey:
Well put, Dorian. “real estate” was given that name because it was, simply put, the best investment one could make – it was “real”. Now it’s no more than another “investment bubble”.
There’a a silly internet poll on gun control here. Right now it is running 80% think gun control ia too strict, but we might as well max the thing out
@ MacDuff:
I am worried that we may be seeing gold go through another bubble. That is my only hesitation (that and money
) to investing in it.
Beeduwine wrote:
Well I wouldn’t want to get you banned and if they see what you posted here, it will be cooked. They really should take that down- Admins?
Iron Fist wrote:
Methinks you may be right. When everybody rushes to invest in anything, it seems that’s a recipe for a “bubble”.
@ Iron Fist:
Done!
vagabond trader wrote:
Inflation is an effective tax on the poor and middle class. Been there, done that.
@ Nevergiveup:
Yea, before Charles Nodickens sees it!
A little late to be posing this question, but before this I knew little of Rep. Giffords. From what I have heard, for a Democrat, she seems to be a fairly conservative one, pro 2nd Ammendment and she was one of only 19 Dems that voted against Pelosi as Minority Leader.
Any Arizonans out there who can fill me in on her?
@ Nevergiveup:
Heh. Don’t worry.
Flyovercountry wrote:
Yup, the root of the problem as near as I can tell, is none other than federal and state governments colluding with Fannie and Freddie to drive up home valuations for the purpose of increasing property tax revenue.
The realty industry was all to willing to be complicit in this fraud because of the sales commissions involved, while they should have known better theirs was always a demand driven market fueled by banks willing to underwrite loans for insane amounts because of the potential profits involved.
Were it not for the community reinvestment act yanking the loan security guarantee out from under 10 to 15% of all their investments their Ponzi scheme might have gone undiscovered for much longer.
The community reinvestment act didn’t so much push residential real estate well beyond it’s value as it removed one of the few things maintaining the fiction that home values were real.
That fiction being tighter loan security guarantees that assured that the individuals making home purchases could be counted on to continue to service the loans for their houses.
To use a construction metaphor, that loan security guarantee was a load bearing structure, removing it wasn’t by itself enough to bring the entire house down, but it was enough to cause the house to begin to collapse.
What brought the entire house down like a house made of cards was the hyper-inflated valuation of the house itself. A realistic appreciation of value would have been between .5% and 2% per year or roughly .25% of inflation.
A house that cost $14,500.00 in 1970 realistically should be worth around $17,000.00 today based upon .25% of inflation over 40 years, not the $400,000.00 that most people saw their homes supposedly worth in 2007.
Once the 10 to 15% percent of homes sold under the community reinvestment act lost their loan security guarantees the mortgage/banking industry began a series of maneuver to attempt to shore up the hole that those unsecured assets had produced.
They began bundling unsecured loans with secured loans in an attempt to have the secured loans extend their coverage to the unsecured loans. This essentially amounted to banking fraud, bundle 1 unsecured load with 99 secured loans and sell it as a single security that is 99% secured.
Unfortunately in order for this to work their had to be no way to track which unsecured loan went into which bundle of secured loans. Those loans were re-bundled and resold so many times that it became statistically impossible to guarantee that no securities bundle contained above a certain percentage of unsecured loans.
CHAOS Theory guaranteed that eventually unsecured loan clusters would emerge where the percentage of unsecured loans in a bundle would reach fatally toxic levels.
This was the real straw that broke the camels back, eventually the toxic securities began to attract each other and form toxic security bundle clusters.
When spread out with a genuinely random Fournier distribution the density of toxic assets was nearly invisible. The problem with achieving a genuinely random Fournier distribution is, that it isn’t done on accident.
It was originally achieve by only inserting a specific number of unsecured loans into any single securities bundle, and had the securities bundles never been repackaged and resold that original random Fournier distribution would have remained intact.
However the second that the mortgage/banking industry began re-bundling those securities CHAOS Theory guaranteed that the unsecured loans would begin to cluster.
From there on out it was merely a matter of time until they reached toxic levels and those unsecured assets defaulted provoking a chain reaction that collapsed the mortgage/banking industry. It was quite simply a mathematical certainty that this would happen.
@ Beeduwine:
It’s serious! WindUpBird will get banned!
Iron Fist wrote:
Running 81 percent now…
doriangrey wrote:
The next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate. Many of those notes and bonds will mature this year and commercial occupancy rates are currently pretty low. T I M B E R…..
@ doriangrey:
My parents bought the house I’m in for $17,500 back in ’61. My mother died and I bought it from my father in ’79 for $55,000 (market value). The house next door (not nearly the house this is; I’ve made major renovtions) sold for $179,000 late last year.
I’ve been fortunate, I’ve refinanced this place at the lowest rate available, renovated it to my absolute comfort with cash, have a mortgage that’s less than what apartment rent would cost and have very little left on the actual mortgage.
Conservatism is not just a political view, it’s a lifestyle.
huckfunn wrote:
“Flipping” houses actually became an occupation for some people; I wonder how that’s working our for them? There’s a lot to be said for living life by the tried and true methods of wealth creation.
waldensianspirit wrote:
Now that would be an accomplishment.
Nevergiveup wrote:
Other sources say he was a pothead. He probably failed the drug test at the recruiters office and was summarily rejected. Not much of a story there.
huckfunn wrote:
Almost, but not quite. Most of the big players in the commercial game have renegotiated their longterm debt or been able to raise the adequate capital needed to keep this from happening. Those who haven’t been able to do those things have mostly been able to get themselves eaten by bigger fish. For the average joe, you can watch this happen in real time by keeping an eye on the Wilshire Reit index. The commercial realestate market took two years of losses along with everyone esle during 2008 and 2009.
MacDuff wrote:
The S&L and housing collapse of the mid 80′s was partially a result of the practice of “flipping” houses. In the Austin area the scheme was know as “greater fool”… “it is a greater fool than I who will pay more for this house.” The collapse made no distinction between greater or lesser fools.
@ Flyovercountry:
Thanks for the info. I’ll keep an eye on that index.
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MacDuff wrote:
that is all correct as far as i know. however, she got far more conservative at the election last year becuase she had a real conservative challenger in Jesse Kelly. and, the attacks on Kelly were, i heard, pretty intense.
Kirly wrote:
Thanks, that’s the picture I was getting. She didn’t give me the impression of a raving moonbat. AZ is a great state; I spent 6 months there (PHX) and frequented it on a number of occasions furing the last 6-7 years. It’s a damned shame it’s getting the undeserved bad press and that Pima County Sherriff is just an A-Hole of the first order.
huckfunn wrote:
Yea, that’s going to be a real bitch when that happens. The Residential Real Estate bubble was a 6.5 pre-shock, when the Commercial Real Estate bubble bursts it likely to be a 9.9 quake on the mortgage/banking industry.
Commercial Real Estate doesn’t have the Community Reinvestment Act creating a toxic atmosphere attached to it. It has something far more dangerous. Personal incomes, the current economic climate and overt hostility to business by Local, State and Federal governments means that when the Commercial Real Estate bubble bursts that it will create a secondary chain reaction in the mortgage/banking industry.
When the Commercial Real Estate bubble bursts there will be a significant spike in unemployment. Because the mortgage/banking industry did not use the TARP Funds to eliminate those Toxic securities assets the significant increase in unemployment will cascade into to a toxic liquidity crisis in the mortgage/banking industry.
More and more people will default on their home loans to the point where where the leveraged funds backing the insurance securities will become insufficient to cover the liquidity drop caused by foreclosures. That will precipitate a collapse of the entire banking industry.
The only possible way to stop this from happening would be to undergo a massive deregulation of the business environment and couple that to massive tax cuts to businesses. Even this may not be sufficient in and of itself as inflation and energy costs may offset the effect and continue to eliminate businesses ability profit and expand.
What we are witnessing is nothing short of the culmination of the Cloward-Pivens trickle up affect. Undermine the foundation of any economy and that economy has no option except to collapse. The foundation of every economy except an agrarian economy is business.
Eliminate institutionalized business from an economy and that economy has no choice but to revert to cottage industry level commerce. The current population density of the industrialized world makes reverting back to an agrarian economy with it’s cottage industry level commerce mathematically impossible.
Moreover to complicate matters, the vast majority of the industrial worlds population has no idea how to survive in an agrarian economy non-industrial environment.
An abrupt change from an industrial society to an agrarian society is going to be apocalyptic to say the very least. Think in terms of a 70 to 90 percent morality rate in the industrial nations of the world.
As the banking industry collapses due to lack of liquidity, one of if not the first industries to fail after the banking industry will be the manufacturing industry, the liquidity crisis will get logarithmically worse causing super-hyper inflation.
As super-hyper inflation hits the energy and food production industries will also fail. Zimbabwe is a perfect model of this, minus the population density. Once the energy and food production industries fail literally billions of people will be faced with eminent starvation.
Large metropolitan complexes will become violent hellholes as the people trapped in them find the polite veneer of civilization stripped away in the struggle to obtain the insufficient resources to survive.
Just like in Zimbabwe millions will attempt to flee the cities only to discover that they don’t have the basic skills or the resources required to live in an agrarian society. Food takes time, resources and planning to grow.
Currently the food supply chain depends on an industrial society to function. None of the large agro-industry companies has the self sufficiency to maintain production output without the industrial production of petroleum based hydrocarbon fuels and fertilizers.
Even more importantly, a very large segment of the agro-industry companies chose a path of profitability that was predicated upon hybrid crops that are second generation sterile. These are extremely high yield crops which allow the agro-industry companies to produce yields compatible with population density food requirements.
The draw back is that the final product cannot be used as feed stock for the next years production. When those fleeing the cities to the countryside get there if they don’t strip the land bare like locust they will discover to their horror that the majority of what they held back as feed stock is sterile and wont grow.
Alberta Oil Peon wrote:
I don’t like to play devil’s advocate, but drug tests (and drug test labs) are not infallible. I would hate to be disqualified from ever owning a firearm on account of a lab test error someplace.
“I luff goldt!