Joe Bastradi is THE GO-TO meteorologist. His modeling is based in history and similarities of past parameters instead of pure computer modeling. Joe is reality based and is very seldom wrong. I hope he is wrong about what is going to happen this weekend.
WeatherBELL Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts Irene to be a cross between Hazel and the Mid Atlantic Hurricane of 1821. This will make Irene a top three hurricane since 1800.
Joe Bastardi’s track for Irene as of the morning of August 25, 2011:
Irene’s track compared to Hazel and 1821:
FYI: Bastardi was the first to predict and show the more western path for Irene, other models are now coming in line with his prediction form days ago that had the path farther out to sea to the east.
Here is more important models and predictions from WeatherBELL, please read this if you are on the East Coast:
The meteorologists at WeatherBELL Analytics believe we have an extremely dangerous situation on our hands. It is important that everyone in the potential path of this storm understand the consequences of Hurricane Irene’s track.
The European computer model has Irene north into New Jersey, New York and up the Hudson River and so even NYC is not out of the woods yet. The HWRF model is similar to the GFS model with a track over eastern Long Island. See storm surge maps for various scenarios including the 5 boroughs at the end of the article.
The storm surge is greatest near and to the right of the storm track and where the slope of depth increases more gradually or where the shape of the water body (Naragansett Bay in 1938) channels the water as in these animations.