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Joe Bastardi Predicts Irene Will Be a Top 3 Hurricane (Since 1800)

by coldwarrior ( 11 Comments › )
Filed under meteorology, Science, Special Report at August 26th, 2011 - 6:00 am




Joe Bastradi is THE GO-TO meteorologist. His modeling is based in history and similarities of past parameters instead of pure computer modeling. Joe is reality based and is very seldom wrong. I hope he is wrong about what is going to happen this weekend.

Joe Bastardi Forecasts Irene To Be A Top Mid Atlantic Hurricane
August 25 08:43 AM
by WeatherBell Admin

WeatherBELL Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts Irene to be a cross between Hazel and the Mid Atlantic Hurricane of 1821. This will make Irene a top three hurricane since 1800.

Joe Bastardi’s track for Irene as of the morning of August 25, 2011:


Irene’s track compared to Hazel and 1821:


FYI: Bastardi was the first to predict and show the more western path for Irene, other models are now coming in line with his prediction form days ago that had the path farther out to sea to the east.


Here is more important models and predictions from WeatherBELL, please read this if you are on the East Coast:


The meteorologists at WeatherBELL Analytics believe we have an extremely dangerous situation on our hands.  It is important that everyone in the potential path of this storm understand the consequences of Hurricane Irene’s track.

While there is still some variation in the computer models, the possibility of a devastating hurricane on Long Island and New England is very real.

The European computer model has Irene north into New Jersey, New York and up the Hudson River and so even NYC is not out of the woods yet.  The HWRF model is similar to the GFS model with a track over eastern Long Island.  See storm surge maps for various scenarios including the 5 boroughs at the end of the article.

The storm surge is greatest near and to the right of the storm track and where the slope of depth increases more gradually or where the shape of the water body (Naragansett Bay in 1938) channels the water as in these animations.



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11 Responses to “Joe Bastardi Predicts Irene Will Be a Top 3 Hurricane (Since 1800)”
( jump to bottom )

  1. Speranza
    1 | August 26, 2011 6:43 am

    He really ought to consider changing his last name.

  2. 2 | August 26, 2011 8:50 am

    I wonder if Obama is getting ready to have another Hurricane Katrina moment? Of course, the MFM will be much more forgiving of him if there is a natural disaster that is, really, beyond his control.

  3. lobo91
    3 | August 26, 2011 9:32 am

    Personally, I’m just glad there’s something else on the news today, since that’s all I get in English language TV.

    I was getting tired of hearing about Libya.

    This whole “24 hour news cycle” thing isn’t working out the way it was supposed to. All I see anymore is multiple news channels all covering the same thing.

  4. The Osprey
    4 | August 26, 2011 10:38 am

    Robert Stacy McCain thinks coverage of this thing is overblown:
    Stormwatch 2011: Mass Hysteria!

    Question: If this hurricane hits New York City, will liberals blame Bush or global warming, or both?
    UPDATE: “New York Hurricane Could Be Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe” — or it “could be” basically some heavy thunderstorms. But why miss a perfectly good opportunity to fear-monger, eh?

  5. Calo
    5 | August 26, 2011 11:05 am

    My go to blog for hurricaines.

  6. 6 | August 26, 2011 12:01 pm

    Someone said that “chocolate city” Ray Nagin was on CBS giving his “expert” advice on hurricane preparedness. Is this true? I don’t watch TV.

  7. coldwarrior
    7 | August 26, 2011 2:38 pm

    Peter wrote:

    Someone said that “chocolate city” Ray Nagin was on CBS giving his “expert” advice on hurricane preparedness. Is this true? I don’t watch TV.

    yes, that is his job now, educating on emergency preparedness. really.

  8. 8 | August 26, 2011 3:18 pm

    Because the Northeast rarely gets significant hurricanes, and because the greater NYC area is so crowded, they are especially ill-prepared for the hurricanes that they do get.

    You really don’t want to be in the subways when there’s a storm surge.

  9. 9 | August 26, 2011 3:31 pm

    Speranza wrote:

    He really ought to consider changing his last name.

    LOL…by now, he’s made a name for himself (in the good sense) and he’s come out against all the AGW crap. It’s really too late for him to change his name.

  10. orangecrush
    10 | August 26, 2011 5:09 pm

    Where is Kayne West blaming this hurricane on the POUTUS policies?

    Gander Goose
    Kettle Pot

  11. Doppelganger
    11 | September 5, 2011 11:44 am


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