I hate to admit to being right when it was something negative I observed. Two weeks ago I pointed out on a thread that in a Quinnipiac Poll, Obama was up to 47%. Many on that thread dismissed it as a fluke. Then last week I did a thread showing Obama up to 47% on Rassmussen. As of this writing Obama is up to 50% approval in Rasmussen. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Obama is at 45%. That’s up from 41% a month ago. Something is going on here. The author the post I link to has a theory that a combination of Occupy Wall Street which has rallied the Progressive base and not being in the news is lifting Obama back up.
After plumbing new depths in August, President Obama’s standing has improved steadily. He has now improved from a net minus-10.2 percent approval rating in late August to minus-4.7 percent. That shift is important, as it moves his general election chances from “almost sure-fire loser” territory to “in the hunt” territory.
[...]
While he isn’t energizing his base when he “disappears,” he isn’t doing anything to anger it either. The same is also true for his opponents. The result is a gravitational force on his disapproval ratings. These time periods also tend to follow time periods of intense partisan wrangling, so they may represent something of a “dead cat” bounce. It is worth noting that we also see similar effects around Christmastime; there isn’t much polling then, but there are suggestions that his approval rating actually was moving upwards a bit in mid-to-late December of 2009 and 2010. Put differently, “soft disapprovers” come to think more positively of the Obama when they are concentrating on other things.
As to explanations for the current uptick (Oct. 11-16 and Oct. 24-Nov.7), number two isn’t really an option here. What we’re seeing is, somewhat paradoxically, a variant of number one combined with number three. It’s reasonably clear that the jobs bill debate hasn’t done the president much good: In the weeks following Obama’s Sept. 9 joint address to Congress, his approval rating generally trended downward.
The president’s uptick starts a little later than that, when two things occur: The Occupy Wall Street protests gather steam, and the Republican debate season begins in earnest. The demonstrations probably function as something of the next-best thing to a partisan win for Obama. In fact, they are arguably better, since the president isn’t around as a polarizing figure. Regardless, it is reasonably clear that the OWS protests have shifted the political debate somewhat from a discussion about austerity and government spending to one about inequality and corporate profits. This shift has probably served to energize a lethargic Democratic base. More important, the shift also has reminded moderate and conservative Democrats why they still identify with the party in the first place. Indeed, a large portion of the president’s surge has come from firming up support among Democrats, as opposed to bringing independents and moderate Republicans back into his camp.
Read the rest: What’s Behind Obama’s Uptick in Job Approval — and Will It Stick?
With the terrible economy this should not be happening. Barack Obama is defying all political logic. The economy is anemic and oil prices are rising again. Any other President would be in free fall. Not this man, he’s not a normal politician. Obama is a symbol to many Americans. He is their political messiah. Obama will wash away America’s sins. Hence no matter what, many will get mad at him temporarily, but will flock back to him when the anger dies down.
The only way to defeat Obama is to destroy him personally. Despite his rising poll numbers, most Americans disapprove of his polices. Just running against Obama’s policies will not win it. Obama must be destroyed as a human being, the way Progressives destroyed George W. Bush. This destruction lead to the debacles of 06 and 08, which the GOP is clearly paying for in the 2012 Presidential elections.The Politics of personal destruction must be applied to Obama. Instead, the GOP elites, like Karl Rove, prefer to destroy Conservatives and yet they roll over for Obama. Until the GOP learns how to personally destroy Obama they will not win the Presidency in 2012. It’s time to take the gloves off, not play cricket and have tea.
I’ve always said that Obama will be hard to beat. This is going to be an election that pivots on who is able to turn out their base. No matter what the polls “say” (or the pollsters want you to believe), the independants will split roughly 50-50, just as the country is divided roughly 50-50. If I am right (and I am
), whomever turns out their base best will win. That is why I say Romney will lose, because he is a drag on the base. He won’t win a single state that McCain lost in 2008, and that, my friends, is a losing hand.
Looking at the RCP poll. You can see the Rassmussen at 50% and Reuters/Ipsos at 49% which has really skewed the average up. Both those orgs are in the tank for Democrats and those two media groups are especially dishonest. They use polls to influence people and promote their agenda — rather than trying to honestly gauge public opinion.
@ Iron Fist:
The GOP also needs to engage in destroying Obama the man. He needs to be personally destroyed and humiliated. he needs to be Alinskied. The GOP was doing this for a while in 2010, but when they caved in the Lame duck session, they resurrected Obama politically.
Obama the man needs to be destroyed.
@ Fritz Katz:
Obama should NOT be above 40%. Any other president would be at 35%. We are dealing with a symbol. Hence we need to destroy the person.
@ Rodan:
The cartoon in the header reminds me of this.
To serve mankind.
@ huckfunn:
Maybe I should clarify.
@ huckfunn:
The sad part is that’s how many Americans view Obama. They view him as a hero.
@ Rodan:
Actually as a Messiah.
@ Rodan:
Hey now, we can’t go doing that!
We’ve got standards!!
All of the “conservative intelligentsia” has told me so!!
////////////////////
@ Rodan:
He is the great deceiver. Stealth marxist who is becoming increasingly less stealthy.
@ Bumr50:
Srew them.
You will like my special post tonight. I let out all my feelings on the Modern GOP.
@ huckfunn:
It’s obvious to all but the blind.
@ Rodan:
He is the First Black President™. For many, that is all that needs to be said. He needs to be re-elected as a racial statement, irrespective of his actual performance in office. That may be enough to carry the day for him.
Don’t forget all the attention has been given to the Republicans.
@ Speranza:
That has helped him. The Press has torn down all of Obama’s rivals except Mitt Romney, who I don’t think (and Obama doesn’t think) can win.
@ Iron Fist:
That is why the MSFM wants Mitt. Its an Easy, Squezzy, lemon Peasy win for the O
F**k Iran
F**k N.Korea
F**k the MSM
F**k 0bama
F**k OWS
Conservatives seem to have a “messiah” complex too. They can’t find one that’s good enough, but I suppose we’ll know them when they come along.
Iron Fist wrote:
Offhand wondering if people who accept an affirmative action president, would abide a affirmative action surgeon perform a difficult procedure on them or their loved ones.
http://theulstermanreport.com/2011/11/15/obama-solyndra-scandal-blockbuster-email-revealed/
Email shows that the administration asked Solyndra to hold off the announcement of their bankruptcy until after the 2010 elections.
Must be the two party evil money cult and the msm are all in total fear of Herman Cain for some reason.
They are all three on him 24/7 tearing him down.
They fear him because he is U.S..
Now, attempting to think outside the box these three have Cain and U.S..
3rd party is a bummer, hard to take over the R due to the inside crowd, the commie democrats would chop off any ones head who got inside that evil cult to attemp to change it. So,,,
Any way We the People ie use the Tea Party and conservatives to set up a full time long term “Constitutional Amendment Corps” that would work with the States and elements in both R and D’s to after the fact block the worst parts of the cults laws and regulations. It being the courts are only going to OK what the cult’s that put them into power want them to do.
This Corps would get things like the “you must buy a product” ie Obama care health insurance, voted out via a Constitutional amendment.
Hard to do, but on the other hand hard for the two party evil money cult to undo.
Just thinking.
taxfreekiller wrote:
Sign me up.
@ Mars:
Sorry, meant to type layoffs, not bankruptcy.
@ Mars:
This is an outrage.
Along with the Keystone Pipeline decision, Dems are running away from Obama in droves.
@ Fritz Katz:
I might agree with you on Rueters, but not on Scott Rasmussen. He is clearly in a conservative camp and one of what I would consider to be two very honest pollsters. In general I will follow Rasmussen and Zogby.
That being said, I did have a peek at the Rasmussen internals, and while Obama has high marks overall, when asked about individual policies, he scores extremely low across the board. This latest bounce is not exactly good news for him either. It has more to do with recent mud being slung at the feet of the GOP candidates than anything else. Welcome to temporaryville Mr. President. Short lived and will fall when the Obamaboom fails, as it must, to be a boom.
Market is up and gas prices are going down. That always helps.