I hate to admit to being right when it was something negative I observed. Two weeks ago I pointed out on a thread that in a Quinnipiac Poll, Obama was up to 47%. Many on that thread dismissed it as a fluke. Then last week I did a thread showing Obama up to 47% on Rassmussen. As of this writing Obama is up to 50% approval in Rasmussen. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Obama is at 45%. That’s up from 41% a month ago. Something is going on here. The author the post I link to has a theory that a combination of Occupy Wall Street which has rallied the Progressive base and not being in the news is lifting Obama back up.
After plumbing new depths in August, President Obama’s standing has improved steadily. He has now improved from a net minus-10.2 percent approval rating in late August to minus-4.7 percent. That shift is important, as it moves his general election chances from “almost sure-fire loser” territory to “in the hunt” territory.
While he isn’t energizing his base when he “disappears,” he isn’t doing anything to anger it either. The same is also true for his opponents. The result is a gravitational force on his disapproval ratings. These time periods also tend to follow time periods of intense partisan wrangling, so they may represent something of a “dead cat” bounce. It is worth noting that we also see similar effects around Christmastime; there isn’t much polling then, but there are suggestions that his approval rating actually was moving upwards a bit in mid-to-late December of 2009 and 2010. Put differently, “soft disapprovers” come to think more positively of the Obama when they are concentrating on other things.
As to explanations for the current uptick (Oct. 11-16 and Oct. 24-Nov.7), number two isn’t really an option here. What we’re seeing is, somewhat paradoxically, a variant of number one combined with number three. It’s reasonably clear that the jobs bill debate hasn’t done the president much good: In the weeks following Obama’s Sept. 9 joint address to Congress, his approval rating generally trended downward.
The president’s uptick starts a little later than that, when two things occur: The Occupy Wall Street protests gather steam, and the Republican debate season begins in earnest. The demonstrations probably function as something of the next-best thing to a partisan win for Obama. In fact, they are arguably better, since the president isn’t around as a polarizing figure. Regardless, it is reasonably clear that the OWS protests have shifted the political debate somewhat from a discussion about austerity and government spending to one about inequality and corporate profits. This shift has probably served to energize a lethargic Democratic base. More important, the shift also has reminded moderate and conservative Democrats why they still identify with the party in the first place. Indeed, a large portion of the president’s surge has come from firming up support among Democrats, as opposed to bringing independents and moderate Republicans back into his camp.
With the terrible economy this should not be happening. Barack Obama is defying all political logic. The economy is anemic and oil prices are rising again. Any other President would be in free fall. Not this man, he’s not a normal politician. Obama is a symbol to many Americans. He is their political messiah. Obama will wash away America’s sins. Hence no matter what, many will get mad at him temporarily, but will flock back to him when the anger dies down.
The only way to defeat Obama is to destroy him personally. Despite his rising poll numbers, most Americans disapprove of his polices. Just running against Obama’s policies will not win it. Obama must be destroyed as a human being, the way Progressives destroyed George W. Bush. This destruction lead to the debacles of 06 and 08, which the GOP is clearly paying for in the 2012 Presidential elections.The Politics of personal destruction must be applied to Obama. Instead, the GOP elites, like Karl Rove, prefer to destroy Conservatives and yet they roll over for Obama. Until the GOP learns how to personally destroy Obama they will not win the Presidency in 2012. It’s time to take the gloves off, not play cricket and have tea.