The Obama Boom received a boost in January. 243,000 jobs were created in January. There’s no way to spin this as this is actually a decent number. What this is due to, I can’t scratch my head. Housing is weak, consumer spending is mediocre, wages are stagnant and gas prices have increased. This job growth number is really baffling. What is causing this uptick in hiring? However, there is a caveat. The unemployment rate fell, because the labor force participation rate is at a 30 year low of 63.7%! Something is not jiving here.
The pace of job creation surged in January, with the US economy generating 243,000 new positions while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, according to government data released Friday.
Both numbers were far better than consensus, which expected a growth of 150,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 8.5 percent.
The stock market opened sharply higher on the jobs news, with gains nearly 1 percent, while bond yields surged as well to push the benchmark 10-year Treasury to 1.93 percent.
“What’s not to like about the report?” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak in New York. “Not only did payrolls exceed forecasts of 140,000 by 103,000 but between the November and December revisions employers added 160,000 more jobs than first thought.”
[....]
The closely watched labor-force participation number, which can skew the unemployment rate, fell to 63.7 percent, the lowest since May 1983. The number of those working part-time for economic reasons rose 1.2 percent.
The media is celebrating and eating these numbers up. This is teh first time, anemic economic growth is producing decent job gains. What’s going on here? I’m really baffled, since the Obama Boom is breaking all economic rules.
The good news is, more Americans are working. The bad news is that if this pace of job growth continues, the False Messiah will get re-elected.
****COLDWARRIOR update. I went and played around at the BLS with their numbers and made this graph:
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id: LNS11300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
Do not the upswing after 1966, that is women entering the workforce. As you can see, we have been falling since 2002 and are really heading downhill now. This captures the real unemployment numbers as it is everyone from age 16 to 65.
- Labor force participation rate
- The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.
-
It’s called shrinkage, everyone…our economy has shrunk to spring 1983. We just lost 30 years.
See the headline.
It goes a long way to clear up confusion.
The chart is hilarious.
Why the official 8.3 percent unemployment rate is a phony number — and what it means for Obama’s reelection
@ Bumr50:
Hockey stick!!!
BOOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!
I wonder what Mitt Romney will have to say about this “rosy” economic fabrication?
Bumr50 wrote:
Mitt Romney was quoted as saying “……
@ huckfunn:
I’ll bet he says he’s “encouraged.”
Denver Colorado is currently enjoying 10 plus inches of Anthropogenic Global Warming, with another 10 expected this evening… In other related news Manbearpig has been spotted in Denver Colorado…
@ doriangrey:
That’s near South Park, isn’t it?
doriangrey wrote:
he needs to go to europe. they are getting whacked with AGW!
OT for a quick range report. That US Army correction target really does help you get the rounds closer to where they’re supposed to land, even in a short session.
http://stealthsurvival.blogspot.com/2009/04/free-shooters-correction-target.html
I used Powerpoint to put a red dot in the center then printed out a bunch. The one shown is for right-handed shooters, BTW.
Mike C. wrote:
they work great.
Macker wrote:
Yes, why yes it is
@ coldwarrior:
If it can help me, it can help anybody. I was using too little trigger finger on the Beretta. After an hour, I wasn’t consistently putting them in the aimpoint dot, but if it had been somebody’s chest, they would have been dead many times over. All I need now is a bazillion hours more practice, new eyes and a 30-year younger, steadier body.
Mike C. wrote:
when you find where to get those, please let me know!
Ok, can someone explain how 243,000 jobs were created last month? The economy is is on low gear, how is this possible?
Rodan wrote:
a record number of temp jobs, the unemployment rate also went down because 1.2 million left the workforce last month.
the same # of employed / a smaller labor force equals a lower percent!
The government added a whole bunch of jobs, as the private participation rate in the workforce found itself at a 30 year low. The number shown here is from the U3 calculation. Here is a video from the Cato Institute which explains how this House of Cards will crash withing 5 months time.
Rodan wrote:
That’s the “Official”"Corrected” Government
liefigure.@ Flyovercountry:
@ coldwarrior:
So the 243,000 is mainly part time workers?
@ Rodan:
There are some outliers you’re missing. From what you posted there is this:
The size of the labor force is shrinking -- meaning more people have given up. The indispensible zerohedge has more(‘NFP’ means non-farm payroll):
Final Nail In Today’s NFP Tragicomedy: Record Surge In Part-Time Workers
@ coldwarrior:
heh. GMTA
eaglesoars wrote:
but of course.
You watch -- they’ll be fudging the numbers from now until election day. No one brings up that those that got 99 weeks of unemployment are no longer filing jobless claims because they’ve exhausted their benefits, and that college students aren’t counted because they can’t file jobless claims.
That 8.3% is bullshit. Pure and simple.
@ Carolina Girl:
watch the laborforce participation number, it captures the big picture.
go here
The other stat you need to look at is the CES birth/death
CES = current employment stats
birth/death -- refers the the businesses that were born/died
have fun
CHECK THE UPDATE!!!!
fun graph at the bottom of the original post
@ eaglesoars:
we are on the same brain wave today
Sorry to go off-topic, but here is a great thread about a special, entitled “precious flower” university student who made some rather unwise Tweets. Funny as hell.
And not really OT, when you get right down to it, because that entitlement attitude is part of the reason the economy sucks.
coldwarrior wrote:
Ok, a couple quibbles that may or may not be germane. Probably 18 yrs and younger should be excluded as they’re probably still in high school. 2nd -- the drop off begins in 2002 -- How many people (and I don’t know if this is knowable) -- entered the military? That would exclude them from this pool
just sayin’
Apparently everybody is slamming the BLS site -- I’m getting a database unavailable msg
@ coldwarrior:
And Obama is out there touting the numbers -- but it’s still Bush’s Fault! don’t forget.
The real problem is, of course, they can talk to death that the economy is improving. The average citizen is smart enough to know that it isn’t. His friends that were unemployed are still unemployed. Prices are skyrocketing at grocery stores and gas pumps. The average guy is doing everything he can to stay afloat. I know several people that attempted to REFI under the previous “HARP” plans and were told that they literally had to destroy their credit rating in order to qualify by not paying their mortgage payments for four or five months.
I’ll keep my credit score and eat mac and cheese if I have to.
eaglesoars wrote:
18 and younger are included in all data, so that smooths out any noise along the curve.
are you sure that entering the military excludes one from this data set…i dont think that is the case
Flyovercountry wrote:
Just in time to blame the obstructionist House right into election day!!
Carolina Girl wrote:
Just the yucky stuff!
@ coldwarrior:
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
@ Carolina Girl:
we didnt buy into the housing boom myth and stayed in our average house and didnt use the average house like a atm machine, so no loss here. i have a hard time feeling sorry for people who bought too much house or kept re-fi’ing over and over again to take equity.
eaglesoars wrote:
ahh…well, we have less people in the military now that we did on the korean war both by numbers and percentage of population, so its a wash on that graph.
@ coldwarrior:
Hey, did you hear what Columbia Gas is gonna start doing? They are gonna start charging you for energy consumed instead of gas consumed….using something with BTUs instead. I don’t really understand it and was hoping you would explain it to me. Is it gonna be good or bad?
http://www.timesonline.com/news/business/columbia-gas-bill-could-go-up-or-down/article_75791e27-245c-5c09-9bb3-05762bd88bf2.html
Well, maybe all these charities will finally figure out where their money comes from…
h/t Zip
NoThreat2U wrote:
its about damn time!
ever notice when its cold out and gas use is high and you put on the stove and the flame is yellow? that is ‘air’ being pumped in to cover demand. that burns but not with as much energy as straight gas. when they send a lower quality product out in high demand, your volume use goes up for the same amount of btu’s used.
this is better.
coldwarrior wrote:
probably so
@ coldwarrior:
Thanks for explaining that to me. Now I won’t be so nervous about my bill
@ NoThreat2U:
instead of paying for a volume of gas with a random amount of work contained in the gas, you are paying for the amount of work you actually used. seems ok to me.
lets let rick santelli explain these numbers
@ coldwarrior:
I don’t think they pump air in CW. Probably illegal, for one, adulterating a product, and unsafe, for two. Risk of getting an explosive mixture in the pipelines. And any oxygen in the pipelines could accelerate rusting, leading to expensive premature replacement.
Natural gas is just that: natural. As a natural product, its composition varies with the source. Some gas reservoirs are rich in natural gas “liquids”, ethane, propane, and butane. If these higher hydrocarbons are abundant, then it pays to have a “straddle plant” on the pipeline to strip these high-value products out, and send straight methane on to end users. If liquids content is too low to justify a straddle plant, then some liquids may remain in the gas stream going to the consumer.
And some natural gas fields may contain minor amounts of CO2 or nitrogen, which degrades the heating value.
I put “liquids” in quotes, because while ethane, propane, and butane are gases at normal environmental temperature and pressure, they often are found dissolved in the liquid phase of liquids-rich gas wells, and can be readily liquefied by compression and chilling, and are marketed as liquids by the industry.
Ethane, C2H6, is the primary feedstock for the plastics industry, and is also the source molecule for antifreeze and a host of other products.
Bumr50 wrote:
SEEE!!
@ Alberta Oil Peon:
very good, so why is my gas flame yellow when there is high demand and a nice pretty blue when there is low demand. this is constant and predictable and happens every time demand is up, always, without fail.
Alberta Oil Peon wrote:
Very interesting, thanks. I have a question. When I was learning about fracking, I learned that generally there are 3 isotopic variations: thermogenic, biogenic and a-biogenic. Any significant differences in the energy potential among them?
@ coldwarrior:
Could it be expansion and contraction in the lines, valves, or fittings, if it occurs with changes in temperature, allowing air in?
@ eaglesoars:
We put an aerosolized biocide agent in some of our lines while testing.
OK, now I am confused again. All I need to know is if I am gonna be getting screwed or not. lol
Bumr50 wrote:
it happens in every house i have been in that gets gas from a utility.
delivered/tanked gas does not do this (like at my parents house)
NoThreat2U wrote:
no.
@ NoThreat2U:
I guess that would depend on your meter reader!!
//
@ coldwarrior:
I will take your word for it since you understand it better then I do.
@ Bumr50:
lol
*chuckle* We don’t have meter readers up here
NoThreat2U wrote:
lemme put it this way, you have two eggs, both are the same size but egg A has 20 more calories (energy) than egg B. the market charges you the same price for these eggs even though egg A can do more ‘work’.
this is fine for yuo if you always get egg A, but if you get egg B you are being overcharged because egg B cant do as much work as egg A.
@ coldwarrior:
Well, I don’t know. But I do know that a yellow flame is indicative of a rich mixture (insufficient oxygen to burn the fuel), and a very pale blue flame, tending toward white, is a sign of a lean mixture (not enough fuel in mixture).
This applies to stove burner flames, welding torch flames, even combustion in the cylinder of an engine. Ever hear of Colortune?
Now what your gas utility might be doing is adding gas from local storage into the system at high-demand times, and maybe that stored gas is propane rich.
Adding air would be counter-productive. Heating value would go down, so people’s furnaces would run longer, drawing down supplies still more. Vicious circle ensues.
If you really curious, why not grab a sample of your “normal” gas, and then a sample of the “yellow flame” gas, and have a lab run them through a gas chromat and see what you find? If the gas changes in composition so much as to change the color of the flame, any chromatograph worth owning should easily spot it.
Any lab that does gas chromatography should be able to provide you with a bag or vials for collecting a sample. First place to start, for yourself, would be the lab at your hospital. If their lab doesn’t have the equipment, chances are one of the techs will know where to send you.
You say the flame burns yellow when it’s really cold out, and demand is high? Have you watched the flame when the kitchen door is opened? Some houses are so tight these days that they can become oxygen-deprived. Do you have a CO detector?
@ eaglesoars:
Not as far as I know. Methane is methane. If the carbon is C12, C13, or C14 shouldn’t make any real* difference.
I haven’t looked up heat of combustion figures for the various isotopes. There may be minute differences in heat of combustion between the three isotopes, simply because of the mass of the nucleus. Big deal. A tiny difference is the properties of a tiny component of the total gas is effectively zero.
@ Alberta Oil Peon:
Thank you!
Alberta Oil Peon wrote:
my house is 120 years old, there is nothing air tight in this place.
the stored gas idea sounds like the likely cause
@ coldwarrior:
Uh, natural gas has been sold by the BTU rather than by volume for many years now. And there’s very strict regulation on the BTU/unit volume as well. Standard pipeline gas in 1 MBTU/1 CF.
Mike C. wrote:
not here, it has been sold by volume until this week. go read the article.
and i have timed the yeloo flame versus blue flame in boiling time of identicle amounts of water, the yellow takes longer to get the pasta water by almost 2 minutes.
Uh, “is”, not “in”. Sorry.
@ coldwarrior:
been sold by volume to the consumer…to be clear
@ coldwarrior:
To residential customers, yes, because those thousands and thousands of meters can only measure volume. But with the very narrow allowable range on BTU content, you can check wholesale prices by taking your cubic feet X 1000 against NYMEX or Henry Hub spot.
Mike C. wrote:
copy that.
now the consumer is going to be billed by btu as well. seems like a more ‘fair’ way to do it.
@ coldwarrior:
It’s almost exactly the same thing. And unless they change out your meter (for what, I’m not certain), they’re still measuring only the volume you use. They would have to do both that and to also run some sort of continuous BTU content system to actually measure BTUs delivered to you. I’m not certain that’s even possible, but if it is, the measuring equipment would cost a fortune, one for each residence.