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Israeli analysts ridicule the notion of a strike on Iran via Azerbaijan

by Speranza ( 73 Comments › )
Filed under Iran, Israel at April 3rd, 2012 - 2:00 pm

Face it, it is impossible to pull off a successful Israeli air attack on Iran. Only one nation can do that – another reason (of the many scores of reasons) to beat Obama.

by Raphael Ahren

Israeli military and intelligence analysts on Sunday categorically dismissed the notion that Israel is considering using airbases in Azerbaijan to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A widely quoted article in Foreign Policy magazine making such claims caused a major stir in recent days, prompting a denial from Azerbaijan and leading one former senior US official to accuse the White House of leaking Israeli operational plans to the media in a bid to thwart an attack on Iran.

But Israeli analysts lined up Sunday to deride the idea as everything illogical, baseless, and impossible.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” said Ephraim Kam, the deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies and a former officer in the research division of the IDF’s Military Intelligence branch. “Azerbaijan has no interest in picking a fight with its neighbor Iran,” he added. “It’s a relatively new country and I don’t see how it could possibly be in their interest to grant any assistance to Israel in an attack on Iran.”

Kam added: “If the Azeri were really to help Israel carry out attack on Iran, they would pick a huge fight with Iran, and if Iran decided to strike Azerbaijan, nobody would come to their help. In my eyes this scenario seems absolutely impossible.

Last Wednesday, Mark Perry wrote in the widely respected Foreign Policy magazine that “several high-level sources” in the American government believe that the good security cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan increased the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran. “In particular,” Perry writes, “four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran’s northern border. To do what, exactly, is not clear.”

[......]

The article, entitled ”Israel’s Secret Staging Ground,” was quoted in virtually all Israeli and dozens of international newspapers, and led some commentators to accuse the US administration of trying to foil an Israeli attack on Iran by divulging Jerusalem’s plans and thus making them unusable.

“I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” John Bolton, a former American ambassador to the United Nations and right-wing pundit, told Fox News on Thursday.

[.......]
“No one seems to have raised the real questions before rushing to publish or quote the Perry-tale,” Yaari wrote on Sunday in The Times of Israel. “Elementary, Mr. Perry: How would the Israeli Air Force reach those airbases in Azerbaijan? Are the Israelis going to get a permit from Mr. Erdogan to fly over Turkey on their way to hit Iran? Does it make any sense? Or, alternatively, does Perry want us to believe that the Israelis will choose to bypass Turkey on their secret mission via the longer route over Greece and Bulgaria, thus becoming fully exposed to Russian radar in the Black Sea? Take a look at the map, Mr. Perry — there is no other way for the Israelis to get to Azerbaijan!”

Yaari also dismissed the idea that Israeli jets could use Azeri airfields on their way back to Israel after a strike. “How can Azerbaijan possibly afford to cooperate in an attack on Iran when it depends on Iran entirely for maintaining control over that significant part of this country, the Nakhichevan region, an exclave and autonomous republic of Azerbaijan that is totally separated from the main Azeri territory by its archenemy, Armenia?”

Iranian missiles could easily destroy the Azeri airbases Israel purportedly plans to use, as well as the large oil terminal near the capital Baku, which would devastate the country’s economy, Yaari added.

Shlomo Brom, a former chief of the IDF’s strategic planning division, agrees that the theory put forward by Perry’s article doesn’t seem logical.

“This is utterly baseless. Azerbaijan is a small country that borders on Iran. It just doesn’t make sense they would help Israel attack them. It would be suicidal,” Brom told The Times of Israel.

Brom added: “It is known that Mark Perry is not a huge fan of Israel. What probably happened is that he took a kernel of truth — that Israel and Azerbaijan have good bilateral cooperation, just like Israel has many other strategic alliances in the world, for example with India — and turned it into something that is it not, which is military cooperation on a strike on Iran.”

Read the rest – Israeli analysts deride notion of a strike  on Iran via Azerbaijan

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73 Responses to “Israeli analysts ridicule the notion of a strike on Iran via Azerbaijan”
( jump to bottom )

  1. Daffy Duck
    1 | April 3, 2012 2:08 pm

    Israel needs an aircraft carrier. I think we have a few laying around somewhere.


  2. 2 | April 3, 2012 2:16 pm

    Azerbaijan is an untrustworthy country. They have been issuing threats to Armenia which is an ally of Russia. They are also close to the Turks. Another twist, Iran is ruled by ethnic Azeris.


  3. 3 | April 3, 2012 2:36 pm

    On the other hand, if there had been a plan to use Azeri airfields which had been scuttled by leaks, then the only sensible response is to deny there had been any such plan.
    This following the same course as all other exposures of Israeli plans. Some idiot talks about what Israel is planning (Panetta, say), and we immediately hear from high-up Israelis to the effect that the idiot has got it wrong. We have even heard from a former head of Mossad concerning the inadvisability of taking out Iran’s nuke capability.
    Meanwhile, one can only hope that sabotage is still actively being pursued by the Israelis.


  4. 4 | April 3, 2012 2:41 pm

    Face it, it is impossible to pull off a successful conventional weapons Israeli air attack on Iran.

    FTFY


  5. 5 | April 3, 2012 2:44 pm

    Let’s face it. All of this could have been avoided by a robust American foreign policy in 1979. We are still paying for the failed Carter Presidency. I imagine that we will pay for the failed Obama Presidency for the rest of my life, and then some. We’ll be 100 years just paying off debt, to say nothing of the way the world map has changed for the worse due to Obama’s deliberate policy of weakening America.


  6. Speranza
    6 | April 3, 2012 2:45 pm

    Iron Fist wrote:

    Let’s face it. All of this could have been avoided by a robust American foreign policy in 1979.

    Quite concur. Elections have consequences.


  7. 7 | April 3, 2012 2:45 pm

    @ Iron Fist:

    We are still suffering the effects of Woodrow Wilson and LBJ’s Presidencies.


  8. Speranza
    8 | April 3, 2012 2:46 pm

    Overlook wrote:

    On the other hand, if there had been a plan to use Azeri airfields which had been scuttled by leaks, then the only

    The article says that there was never a plan to use Azeri arifields. Iran would retaliate against Azerbaijan and nobody would come to their rescue.


  9. Speranza
    9 | April 3, 2012 2:48 pm

    Daffy Duck wrote:

    Israel needs an aircraft carrier. I think we have a few laying around somewhere.

    Yeah like we are going to lease one to them.
    Some genius here a year ago mentioned that we could lend Israel some B-2′s and Tomahawk cruise missiles – as if it is the keys to your Dad’s car for use on a Saturday night.


  10. 10 | April 3, 2012 2:49 pm

    @ Speranza:

    Yes the US will just lend Israel an Aircraft carrier and B-2s. They are for rent!
    ///


  11. Speranza
    11 | April 3, 2012 2:49 pm

    Overlook wrote:

    Meanwhile, one can only hope that sabotage is still actively being pursued by the Israelis.

    Bingo – that is what they are doing. All these “leaks” are disinformation.


  12. Speranza
    12 | April 3, 2012 2:50 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ Speranza:
    Yes the US will just lend Israel an Aircraft carrier and B-2s. They are for rent!
    ///

    Hey you can train someone in an hour to fly a B-2. ///


  13. Speranza
    13 | April 3, 2012 2:51 pm

    So many fantasies (well meaning but fantasies nevertheless) going on concerning Iran.


  14. 14 | April 3, 2012 2:53 pm

    @ Speranza:

    I heard Israel has made contact with Extraterrestrials. They will use UFOs to attack Iran!
    ///


  15. 15 | April 3, 2012 2:53 pm

    @ Speranza:

    B-1Bs?


  16. 16 | April 3, 2012 2:53 pm

    @ Speranza:

    Nobody could come to their aid unless the United States wanted to get into a regional war with Iran. If we were willing to do that, Israel wouldn’t have to strike Iran. We could do it with B-2s out of Kansas. But that simply isn’t going to happen under an Obama Administration. Never. HE’d rather see America nuked than bomb Iran. He may even want that to happen. Stick it to the Man®, after all…


  17. MikeA
    17 | April 3, 2012 2:59 pm

    @ Iron Fist:

    FYI – The B-2′s are based in Missouri at Whiteman AFB.

    ( WHITEMAN!!!! RAAAAACIST!!!!! )


  18. 18 | April 3, 2012 3:02 pm

    @ Iron Fist:

    If America gets nuked, he can declare an national emergency.


  19. 19 | April 3, 2012 3:03 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ Iron Fist:

    If America gets nuked, he can declare an national emergency.

    There was a time I’d discount that as hyperbole. Now, not so much….


  20. Daffy Duck
    20 | April 3, 2012 3:06 pm

    @ Rodan:

    Heh, never let a crisis go to waste, indeed.


  21. 21 | April 3, 2012 3:06 pm

    @ MacDuff:

    I don’t discount anything from Pharaoh in Chief ™!


  22. Daffy Duck
    22 | April 3, 2012 3:07 pm

    @ Speranza:

    I was thinking more direct sale of a mothballed / pre-scrap unit. But, yeah, you’re right, not going to happen with this administration.


  23. citizen_q
    23 | April 3, 2012 3:11 pm

    @ MikeA:
    Wonder how obamamassah like living in the White house?@ Rodan:
    @ MacDuff:
    I would expect him to remain true to form. He will figure out how to use the crisis to advantage. He will find a domestic boogey-man to blame it on, and seize full dictatorial powers.


  24. 24 | April 3, 2012 3:11 pm

    @ Daffy Duck:

    This man wants chaos to reign.


  25. darkwords
    25 | April 3, 2012 3:14 pm

    @ 13 Speranza: I would have just stepped across the border into the nearest town while I had a huge army in Iraq.


  26. darkwords
    26 | April 3, 2012 3:16 pm

    OT: A mistake by Rush That he should probably apologize for today and in person. Politicians should leave their minor children out of the campaigns and the general public should respect that choice and pressure down anyone who doesn’t.


  27. yenta-fada
    27 | April 3, 2012 3:22 pm

    Orwell 1984

    “Winston was smoking a Victory Cigarette which he held carefully horizontal. The new ration did not start till tomorrow and he had only four cigarettes left. For the moment he had shut his ears to the remoter noises and was listening to the stuff that streamed out of the telescreen. It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grammes a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. Parsons swallowed it easily, with the stupidity of an animal. The eyeless creature at the other table swallowed it fanatically, passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grammes. Syme, too-in some more complex way, involving doublethink, Syme swallowed it. Was he, then, alone in the possession of a memory?”


  28. Speranza
    28 | April 3, 2012 3:33 pm

    Daffy Duck wrote:

    @ Speranza:
    I was thinking more direct sale of a mothballed / pre-scrap unit. But, yeah, you’re right, not going to happen with this administration.

    Again, we are not talking about the family automobile. Israel is not a superpower.


  29. 29 | April 3, 2012 3:38 pm

    @ Speranza:

    Israel should ask Charles Johnson to assist them. After all, the world fears that man!


  30. Speranza
    30 | April 3, 2012 3:40 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ Speranza:
    Israel should ask Charles Johnson to assist them. After all, the world fears that man!

    His influence is far and wide.


  31. 31 | April 3, 2012 3:40 pm

    @ Speranza:

    Very wide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  32. 32 | April 3, 2012 3:41 pm

    Speranza wrote:

    His influence is far fat and wide.

    More like it…


  33. 33 | April 3, 2012 3:45 pm

    darkwords wrote:

    OT: A mistake by Rush That he should probably apologize for today and in person. Politicians should leave their minor children out of the campaigns and the general public should respect that choice and pressure down anyone who doesn’t.

    I listened to Rush pretty regularly in those days and, while can’t say it didn’t happen, I will say that it doesn’t really sound like his style and I don’t remember the incident. He pretty much left Chelsea alone.


  34. Daffy Duck
    34 | April 3, 2012 3:45 pm

    @ Speranza:

    I don’t get what ‘superpower’ has to do with viability of an aircraft carrier for Israel. According to Wikipedia, there are 8 countries (besides USA) that have active naval air capability (and for some, even “capability” could be questioned). I do not regard any of those other countries as “superpowers,” do you?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country

    So, yeah, it is probably “fantasy” to speculate what Israel could do with an aircraft carrier, but it is NOT fantasy that they could possess one, if they wanted.


  35. 35 | April 3, 2012 3:47 pm

    @ Iron Fist:

    Charles probably gets special deliveries from Cheetos!


  36. coldwarrior
    36 | April 3, 2012 3:53 pm

    is van jones trying to tell uys something, maybe get out in front of a soon to be breaking story?

    “I think if President Obama came out as gay, he wouldn’t lose the black vote,” a cheerful Van Jones told MSNBC this afternoon.

    “President Obama is not going to lose the black vote no matter what he does,” he added.


  37. 37 | April 3, 2012 3:56 pm

    Anyone in Dallas? It looks like they got some serious tornado action there…


  38. coldwarrior
    38 | April 3, 2012 3:56 pm

    @ Daffy Duck:

    aircraft carriers are incredibly expensive. that is what holds most countries back from ownership.

    for instance, you have to have many many ships around them to feed and protect them else they are a giant easy target.


  39. 39 | April 3, 2012 3:57 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    is van jones trying to tell uys something, maybe get out in front of a soon to be breaking story?

    “I think if President Obama came out as gay, he wouldn’t lose the black vote,” a cheerful Van Jones told MSNBC this afternoon.

    “President Obama is not going to lose the black vote no matter what he does,” he added.

    Glittery trial balloons look fabulous!


  40. coldwarrior
    40 | April 3, 2012 4:01 pm

    @ MacDuff:

    i think the white house knows something is gonna hit the fan.

    we have been running the pics of obama and his ex boyfriend…i guess i’ll be audited and rodan will be sent to the re-education camps for this.


  41. citizen_q
    41 | April 3, 2012 4:03 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    “President Obama is not going to lose the black vote no matter what he does,” he added.

    My understanding of van jones’s comments is the the black vote is so solid for a black candidate, that there is virtually nothing obama could do to lose that vote.


  42. Speranza
    42 | April 3, 2012 4:03 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    @ Daffy Duck:
    aircraft carriers are incredibly expensive. that is what holds most countries back from ownership.
    for instance, you have to have many many ships around them to feed and protect them else they are a giant easy target.

    They are cities on the ocean.


  43. Speranza
    43 | April 3, 2012 4:05 pm

    Daffy Duck wrote:

    I don’t get what ‘superpower’ has to do with viability of an aircraft carrier for Israel. According to Wikipedia, there are 8 countries (besides USA) that have active naval air capability (and for some, even “capability” could be questioned). I do not regard any of those other countries as “superpowers,” do you?

    Not to be snarky but do you know anything about military matters? The Israeli navy is tiny.


  44. Daffy Duck
    44 | April 3, 2012 4:05 pm

    @ coldwarrior:

    Oh, I know, and agree. I was just pointing out that there are several countries that possess carriers. Whether said countries can actually afford to own/operate* them, well, that’s another matter.

    * for example, if you were a despot, and the Charles de Gaulle and escorts showed up off your coast, would you:

    1. piss yer pants in fear
    2. piss yer pants laughing your arse off


  45. Daffy Duck
    45 | April 3, 2012 4:07 pm

    @ Speranza:

    I didn’t take your comment as snark. Israel can apparently afford a very good air force, seems it could afford a modest navy, if it wanted too.

    That is my only point.


  46. Speranza
    46 | April 3, 2012 4:09 pm

    Daffy Duck wrote:

    @ Speranza:
    I didn’t take your comment as snark. Israel can apparently afford a very good air force, seems it could afford a modest navy, if it wanted too.
    That is my only point.

    They are a nation of 6 million Jews with limited manpower. We are not “lending” anyone any aircraft carriers.


  47. 47 | April 3, 2012 4:11 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    @ MacDuff:

    i think the white house knows something is gonna hit the fan.

    we have been running the pics of obama and his ex boyfriend…i guess i’ll be audited and rodan will be sent to the re-education camps for this.

    I’d take a gay free market conservative over a straight liberal any day. I live next to two lesbians and know two older gay men down the block and they’re all pretty conservative.


  48. Speranza
    48 | April 3, 2012 4:23 pm

    I have known plenty of gay conservatives myself.


  49. 49 | April 3, 2012 4:28 pm

    @ coldwarrior:
    @ MacDuff:

    You read it here first.


  50. 50 | April 3, 2012 4:29 pm

    @ MacDuff:
    @ Speranza:

    I could care less if Obama is gay. It’s the fact he’s a 3rd World Liberation Marxist that’s my problem.


  51. 51 | April 3, 2012 4:35 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ MacDuff:
    @ Speranza:

    I could care less if Obama is gay. It’s the fact he’s a 3rd World Liberation Marxist that’s my problem.

    Yeah, gay’s pretty far down on my list as well….


  52. 52 | April 3, 2012 4:42 pm

    @ MacDuff:

    I’m only voting because I despise Obama.


  53. 53 | April 3, 2012 4:47 pm

    MacDuff wrote:

    Rodan wrote:
    @ MacDuff:
    @ Speranza:
    I could care less if Obama is gay. It’s the fact he’s a 3rd World Liberation Marxist that’s my problem.

    Yeah, gay’s pretty far down on my list as well….

    I’m more worried about the fact that both he and his Secretary of State are in bed with the entire Muslim Brotherhood.


  54. huckfunn
    54 | April 3, 2012 4:49 pm

    Dallas-Fort Wort being blitzed by multiple tornadoes.

    Live Feed Here


  55. coldwarrior
    55 | April 3, 2012 4:49 pm

    1389AD wrote:

    MacDuff wrote:
    Rodan wrote:
    @ MacDuff:
    @ Speranza:
    I could care less if Obama is gay. It’s the fact he’s a 3rd World Liberation Marxist that’s my problem.
    Yeah, gay’s pretty far down on my list as well….

    I’m more worried about the fact that both he and his Secretary of State are in bed with the entire Muslim Brotherhood.

    so they are bi?

    :lol:


  56. 56 | April 3, 2012 4:50 pm

    @ huckfunn:

    I’m watching it, its nasty.


  57. 57 | April 3, 2012 4:51 pm

    @ 1389AD:

    The Obama regime plus his buddies John McCain and Ms. Lindsey.


  58. huckfunn
    58 | April 3, 2012 4:52 pm

    @ Rodan:
    One of them went across DFW Airport and the old Texas Stadium site. My son’s apartment is right there. Lucky for him he caught a plane back to Colorado yesterday morning.


  59. yenta-fada
    59 | April 3, 2012 4:54 pm

    1389AD wrote:

    MacDuff wrote:
    Rodan wrote:
    @ MacDuff:
    @ Speranza:
    I could care less if Obama is gay. It’s the fact he’s a 3rd World Liberation Marxist that’s my problem.
    Yeah, gay’s pretty far down on my list as well….
    I’m more worried about the fact that both he and his Secretary of State are in bed with the entire Muslim Brotherhood.

    You mean like the State Dept. that won’t say that Jerusalem is in Israel?

    http://freebeacon.com/state-department-wont-say-jerusalem-is-in-israel/print/


  60. 60 | April 3, 2012 4:55 pm

    @ huckfunn:

    Hey want top do a headline on it?


  61. 61 | April 3, 2012 4:56 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ MacDuff:

    I’m only voting because I despise Obama.

    Well, we’ve had that discussion before, haven’t we? Assuming neither of our positions have changed, I’ll just delay a rehash of old arguments for another day, if that’s OK – I’m working on getting rid of a headache.


  62. coldwarrior
    62 | April 3, 2012 4:57 pm

    PLO bestows journalism award on Helen Thomas
    By JTA

    04/03/2012 01:17
    US reporter, forced into retirement after controversial remarks about Jews, hailed for “supporting Palestine in the West.”


  63. huckfunn
    63 | April 3, 2012 4:57 pm

    @ Rodan:
    OK. I need to check around and find more written reports. There will be widespread devastation.


  64. 64 | April 3, 2012 5:06 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    PLO bestows journalism award on Helen Thomas
    By JTA
    04/03/2012 01:17
    US reporter, forced into retirement after controversial remarks about Jews, hailed for “supporting Palestine in the West.”

    I didn’t even know they had a “Jew Hater” award, but she certainly deserves it! Who knew Palestinians could even read?


  65. huckfunn
    65 | April 3, 2012 5:18 pm

    MacDuff wrote:

    coldwarrior wrote:

    PLO bestows journalism award on Helen Thomas
    By JTA
    04/03/2012 01:17
    US reporter, forced into retirement after controversial remarks about Jews, hailed for “supporting Palestine in the West.”

    I didn’t even know they had a “Jew Hater” award, but she certainly deserves it! Who knew Palestinians could even read?

    She got the Auntie Semitic Award.


  66. 66 | April 3, 2012 5:20 pm

    @ huckfunn:

    Beautiful.


  67. 67 | April 3, 2012 5:29 pm

    @ MacDuff:

    I wasn’t arguing. I was just pointing out how evil and despicable Obama is.

    As for gettinmg rid of your headache, take 2 Bayer aspirins!
    :-)


  68. Philip_Daniel
    68 | April 3, 2012 5:53 pm

    Tatarstan-On-The-Caspian is a Shi’a Muslim nation, a client state of neo-Ottomanist Turkey, with ethnic members residing in Iran [up to 25% of the Iranian population is Safavi...err, Azeri], so…it’s highly unlikely that they would conduct such a deal with Israel…


  69. Speranza
    69 | April 3, 2012 5:55 pm

    coldwarrior wrote:

    PLO bestows journalism award on Helen Thomas
    By JTA
    04/03/2012 01:17
    US reporter, forced into retirement after controversial remarks about Jews, hailed for “supporting Palestine in the West.”

    Now that’s a shocker.


  70. Philip_Daniel
    70 | April 3, 2012 5:55 pm

    @ huckfunn:

    Someone inform her that the Gaza Minister of the Interior and National Security recently admitted on television that…

    “Half of the Palestinians Are Egyptians and the Other Half Are Saudis”


  71. 71 | April 3, 2012 5:55 pm

    Rodan wrote:

    @ MacDuff:

    I wasn’t arguing. I was just pointing out how evil and despicable Obama is.

    As for gettinmg rid of your headache, take 2 Bayer aspirins!

    Oh, I know you weren’t. That was just a friendly jab, not intended as snark.


  72. 72 | April 3, 2012 5:57 pm

    Philip_Daniel wrote:

    @ huckfunn:

    Someone inform her that the Gaza Minister of the Interior and National Security recently admitted on television that…

    “Half of the Palestinians Are Egyptians and the Other Half Are Saudis”

    Who was it that called them an “invented people”? That says it all.


  73. BuddyG
    73 | April 4, 2012 12:38 pm

    Perhaps an Israeli strike won’t be against Iran’s nuke facilities,
    but rather, against Iran’s leadership.


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