One of the strongest economic recoveries since the reign of Pharaoh Ramses II continues its unstoppable path. The glorious policies of the great divine Pharaoh Obama led to the miraculously creation of 115,000 jobs for the month of April. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1% because the economy is so great that people have stopped looking for work! In all seriousness, these are terrible numbers that don’t meet population growth. The unemployment rate dropped due to a extended unemployment insurance program expiring and discouraged workers. Despite these facts the media was trumpeting the jobs report and hailing the Pharaoh as an economic miracle worker.
April’s job report lived up to muted expectations, with the economy creating a meager 115,000 jobs during the month as the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent.
The service sector again accounted for most of the job creation, growing 101,000 while manufacturing added just 16,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Governments cut a net 15,000 jobs for the month. The average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours.
Though the headline number indicated job creation, the total employment level for the month actually fell 169,000. The disparity likely emanates from a drop in the labor force participation rate — or the level of Americans actively looking for jobs or otherwise employed — from 63.8 percent to 63.6 percent, its lowest level since December 1981.
The amount of discouraged workers swelled from 865,000 to 968,000, an increase of 12 percent. Those working part-time for economic reasons surged 181,000 to more than 7.8 million.
“In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, more than four-fifths of the reduction in unemployment has been accomplished by a dropping adult labor force participation rate — essentially persuading adults they don’t need a job, or the job they could find is not worth having,” said University of Maryland economist Peter Morici.
Numbers like these would be disastrous for any incumbent President. But Obama is not a normal politician. He is a political messiah like figure for too many Americans. To illustrate how bad the job market is this graph about the labor participation rate and people not in the work force is chilling.
The American economy is at depression levels. The sad part is that none of this seems to matter to the American public. Obama’s approval from an average of polls is at 48%. When you factor in our terrible economic conditions and decreasing standard of living, Obama is running ahead in the polls of where his standing should be.
The question we can then ask is this: Based on the historical relationship between presidential approval and the economy as well as these other factors, is Mr. Obama more or less popular than the model would predict, given the economy and other circumstances during his first three years in office? Here is a graph depicting Mr. Obama’s actual approval and expected approval:
So why would Mr. Obama be more popular than the economy and other factors might predict? One possibility is his personal likeability. Despite the armchair diagnoses of some pundits, large majorities of Americans perceive him as warm, empathetic and a good communicator. Although many fewer Americans approve of his performance in office, perhaps his personal appeal has boosted his job approval among some Americans.
This is something Conservative/Libertarians need to understand. Too many think this is 1980. Sorry, Obama is not Carter and Romney is definitely no Reagan. Ronald Reagan had a Conservative core, Mitt Romney is the most Leftist Republican since Teddy Roosevelt. Jimmy Carter did not have the adulation from the press and the popular culture that Obama has. We are dealing with a cult of personality that rivals North Korea’s Juche! Obama is viewed as a semi divine figure who is here to redeem America’s sins. This is what people on the Right must grasp.
As someone who lives in a swing state, I am exposed to the other side and totally understand my enemy. Too many Conservatives live in areas where people think like them and are not exposed to the other views. Hence they think Obama will lose. I wish I shared that view, but if I was betting man I would bet on a narrow Obama win. There is a way to defeat him.
As much as I hate Mitt Romney, I give him some credit. Unlike McCain he’s actually trying to win. He’s the first Republican since Reagan to run on the economy and not cultural issues. The economic circumstances are perfect for this type of campaign. The problem is Obama is not an ordinary politician. The way for Romney to defeat the American Pharaoh is to use Alinsky tactics. Obama must be turned into a figure of ridicule, which will strip him of his godhood. People must hate Obama the person in order to defeat Obama the politician. The politics of personal destruction is the way to beat Obama. Once he is hated and viewed as joke, his failed policies will be the issue and he will lose. The Romney campaign must destroy Obama the symbol in order to defeat Obama the politician.
The Pharaonic Regime is a failure and this jobs report is just another example.
Update: Another factor in the drop in workforce participation rate. More people are collecting disability.
The civilian labor force shrank in April by 342,000 workers, and remains below where it stood when the economic recovery started 34 months ago, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Had the labor force not declined, unemployment would have been 8.3% in April, instead of the 8.1% reported.
That same month, more than 225,000 workers applied for Social Security disability benefits, and nearly 90,000 were enrolled, according to new data from the Social Security Administration.
Compared with June 2009, the month the economic recovery officially started, the labor force has shrunk by 365,000, a trend that has never occurred in any post World War 11 recovery. Those saw the labor force climb by the millions by this point in their recoveries, even as unemployment rates were driven down.
The decline in the workforce combined with the growing population has pushed the labor force participation rate — which compares those working or looking for a job the working age population — fell again in April to 63.6%. That’s down from 65.7% in mid-2009, and is the lowest it’s been since 1981.
Pharaonic America, don’t you love it!