The conventional wisdom told us on that first Wednesday in November of 2008 that the Republican Party was dying, if not already dead. That great paragon of intellectual honesty, Al Sharpton, now relishing his role as the go to guy for the NBC family of networks, told us all proudly that America was now officially a Socialist nation. Paul Krugman, the very same economist who presented the theory that we could pull out of our current economic woes by preparing for an invasion by space aliens, (this was reported as serious news by the New York Times,) found himself the spokes economist for the now in charge political left.
What I knew then, along with a handful of others, was that by November of 2010, the obviously idiotic and insane policies of the left would lead to an electoral backlash of historic proportions. I knew and predicted, along with a very few in number of others, that the GOP would become the majority party in the House in January of 2011, and that the Senate would take until January of 2013. I also predicted that in November of 2012, Barack Obama would lose in a landslide of Carter/Mondale/McGovern proportion. That last prediction has had people loudly calling me fool well up until times as recent as a month ago. Barack Obama is inevitable, and if we can defeat him at all I was told, it will be a razor sharp Pyrrhic victory at best.
Suddenly, I find myself in an unfamiliar position. I find that the optimism with which I faced the midterms of 2010, which was proven correct, and the coming November elections, is suddenly not a minority opinion. Just like the cartoons that show water holes slowly at first starting to sprout in a damn, and then accelerates rapidly into a situation that sees every square inch of dry ground protected by the damn suddenly flooded, so too are the signs leading up to this years leadership decision to be made by the American People.
So why are there suddenly chinks in the conventional wisdom armor? What has happened that more and more people are beginning to catch up to what a few of us have known all along? First, let me say that I am not a great prognosticator, nor even a dime store psychic. In fact, I based my predictions on past events, namely Jimmy Carter’s Presidency and the election of 1980. Every thing uttered by President Obama during his campaign, which began in 2006, matched syllable for syllable the exact things uttered by James Earl Carter during his run for our nation’s chief executive position. His policies and actions have not only been eerily similar, but some have gone as far to dub the Obama Administration as Carter’s second term. Small wonder that the results have been exactly the same this time around as they were the first. Knowing what the results would be, should we see a return to the Carter policies, predicting that Americans would react in the exact same fashion as they did in 1980 did not take the amazing Kreskin.
Now, let’s talk about those chinks. We have heard rumblings since the summer of 2010 about how privately, members of the Democrat Party Apparatus were frightened at the prospects of their party under the leadership of Obama’s team. Publicly, that fear never really showed. Even the massive thumping that they took during the 2010 midterms were met with the usually skillful political spin and explanations of how the American People just didn’t understand the brilliance of their messaging. The conventional wisdom was somehow that they wanted our leaders to start compromising with one another and that the election was not in fact a restraining order being executed by an electorate angered by the Marxist overreach of politicians gone wild. Then some very subtle signals began to be noticed. Hillary Clinton announced that she intends to skip the National Convention this year. Senator Joe Manchin has refused to endorse the President from his own party. Then a whole host of Democrats from Blue Dog country, (that area of the country where Democrats must pretend to be conservatives in order to get elected, such as Nebraska, Missouri, North Dakota, etc.,) have more recently made public refusals to endorse the President elected from their own party.
Then the chinks started coming faster. Suddenly, we started to experience some changing trends in the daily bombardment of pollsters. Those of us who pay attention to the inner workings of the cross tabs have noticed that either the samples are skewed to the point of fantasy in order to keep the projected race somewhat close, or Romney is gaining a widening lead. The polls that show a race as being a toss up for instance need a national D + 11 sample to gain those results. Several of the news stories began to get reported with a slightly less lustrous Obama glow attached. (Nothing even remotely objective mind you, while Chris Matthews stated once or twice that he was beginning to lose that blind devotion to the Obamasiah, his tingly feeling did return to his leg soon enough.) Some long time Democrat mouth pieces began to openly question the seemingly scattered direction in policy emanating from the White House.
Then, over the last 4 weeks, Barack Obama experienced a phenomenon felt by Lyndon Johnson in 1968, then by James E. Carter in 1980, and finally by George H.W. Bush in 1992. He stood as an incumbent President that faced a serious challenge during at least part of the primary process when facing his second term. Johnson decided to drop out of the race entirely in 1968 after Robert Kennedy finished a distant second to him in New Hampshire. (The split there was about 60/40 in Johnson’s favor, which he viewed as an indication that the American People had had enough of the Great Society.) Carter defeated the Ted Kennedy challenge with an even wider margin, taking about 75% of his party’s nominating vote in the primaries where they faced off. Bush beat a similarly weak challenge by Pat Buchanan, about 75% to 25% in those states where Buchanan ran. Barack H. Obama’s situation is slightly different. In North Carolina, he polled 60% of the vote against an unknown candidate. In West Virginia, he ran against a convicted felon who actually resides in a Federal Pen., located in Arizona. In Kentucky, 42% of the Democrat electorate actually voted for none of the above, leaving the incumbent from their own party with 58% of the total.
As if the news were not bad enough for Team Obama, read the stories here, (hat tip huckfunn,) and, here, (hat tip Mars.) The reasons for the mid level apparatchik defections are not important to me at all, what is important is that it shows a pattern of rats jumping off of a sinking ship. One has stated her reasons as being upset about the Gay Marriage kerfuffle, and the other sees the Keynesian Marxist policies of our current President as being detrimental to anyone committed to the long term economic growth of our nation. What it boils down to however is two more people who actively knocked on doors and canvassed for Obama in 2008 will not be doing so in 2012, and these long time party apparatchiks have defected very publicly. So to both of them, welcome to the light, I hope you enjoy it here being on the right side of things.
Very soon now, we will begin to see the water crashing through the place where the damn used to stand. One more chink has fallen from the wall that used to be holding back the tide. It would seem that the Democrats who run the Senate are not all that interested in advancing the President’s agenda. For decades the leaders from both parties in the Senate have used the language of we’ll get to it in our own time to signal Presidents that they did not have the votes necessary to achieve whatever the agenda item is that they were being asked about. This is something different however. This is an indication of flat out mutiny against the President by the Democrat members, at least some of them, of the Senate.
The Good Ship Lollipop is sinking, and the rats are jumping off. McGovern, Carter, Mondale will all be relieved that there will be a candidate who removes their names as synonyms for landslide victim.