Laying the monetary policies of the late 1970′s completely at the feet of Jimmy Carter is not entirely fair. Those policies which some see as the result of removing the gold standard from our currency began in earnest with Lyndon Johnson, found no trouble in moving across the aisle when Richard Nixon became a President from the opposition party, saw a brief hiatus with the more fiscally disciplined Gerald Ford, who lost to Jimmy Carter. So while it is true that the concept of fiat money did not start with Carter, it is also true that he did nothing to stop it, and in fact took what at the time was a very manageable problem and turned it into a full blown disaster.
I know that I’m opening a can of worms with the, “Paulian Gold Hawks,” and the, “Non Paulian Gold Hawks Are Conspiracy Theorists,” with this one. The problem is that both sides of the currency debate see everything as an either or situation, unwilling to cede to any type of third way of doing things proposal. Constitutionally, our federal government has been granted authority to determine our currency and to regulate it as they see fit. Our check on that authority is called the ballot box. If we send irresponsible people to Washington to attend our business, that is our fault, and indeed we have and will pay a price for that. The problem with the either or thinking is that it ignores that both sides of the debate have solutions that are deeply flawed and have in fact led to their own disastrous results in the past.
The gold standard was a leading cause of the depression of 1929, and the faith based currency and the use of fiat money during the 1930′s caused that depression to last a decade rather than 12 to 14 months. one places constraints upon an economy by not allowing precious capital to perform its function in the market place and the other allows the federal government to rob the citizens of their wealth with an unseen transfer of value by simply diluting the currency. The best answer lies along a different path entirely. Milton Friedman and Paul Volcker have told us the way already. Allow for a government created and controlled currency, but place some very specific constraints upon that creation by tying it to certain economic indexes, such as replacement, GDP, trade balances etc.
As for Jimmy Carter’s role in the process, it was based completely on an economic fallacy, and one that was proven by Carter’s experimentation that turned out to be disastrously wrong. He felt, as did all of the people who belonged to the bastardized Keynesian school, that employment and inflation were inversely related. With high unemployment numbers and a recession in full swing, Jimmy Carter believed that a purposeful economic inflation would spur economic activity and reduce unemployment. To put that into simpler terms, he believed as did all of those on the political left, that by increasing government spending, more money would end up in the hands of citizens, and that they would in turn take this money and spend it on goods and services and our economy would start to recover, by having our pump primed. This particular theory has always worked better in academia than in actual practice.
One of the reasons that the Keynesian theory, (calling the current Keynesian school Keynesian is somewhat misleading, as the current practice has gone well beyond any arguments Maynard Keynes actually made,) does not work, is that that it fails to accommodate itself to changes in human behavior. As rewards and penalties are earned or inflicted, behavior is adjusted to reap one and avoid the other. Another reason for the failure of Keynesian economics is the fact that a government has to get the money it spends from somewhere, be it from today’s citizens or tomorrow’s. Carter’s method and that of his Fed Chairman was the take it from the latter group. This was achieved by printing more currency, which devalued the wealth already in place with the private citizens, and then to spend the newly created currency on those wonderful social programs which people had been told were free.
There is a propensity to view inflation as the increase in the prices of those things we spend our money on. This is not only a wrong interpretation of the facts, but dangerously so for those in charge. Rising prices are a symptom of inflation. Just because it may take a while for that symptom to manifest itself, sometimes as long as three years as we are today finding out, does not mean that we should take it any less seriously. On March 8, 1978, Jimmy Carter nominated G. William Miller to the Fed Chairmanship. He was the only person to serve in that capacity without a background in economics or finance. He served the President and followed his policies without fail. With the printing presses turned on, he inflated the economy with reckless abandon. Unemployment, being totally independent in fact from inflation, remained high. A new word and term had to be created to describe the economic climate for the the late 1970′s. The word was stagflation, which described double digit inflation with zero or even less than zero economic growth. The term was of course misery index, which combined interest rates and inflation in some bizarre formula and was meant to predict how miserable Americans had become. By August of 1979, Jimmy Carter had received protests from business leaders, House members, Senators, many from his own party to force the resignation of Miller, who actually accepted another position as an enticement to leave. He was replaced by Paul Volcker, a man who publicly criticized Carter’s fiscal policies. With Miller as Secretary of the Treasury and Carter as President, they felt as though they would be able to force Volcker into continuing their policies, which he did not.
In order to bring inflation under control, Volcker had to increase interest rates to an astounding 21.5% at the zenith in 1981. The reason of course that this was necessary was that the purposeful inflation had been in place since 1965. It took something that drastic to bring about the cure. It should be noted that at one time, there really was such a thing as a conservative Democrat, and Volcker was one of those, as were Rick Perry and Ronald Reagan.
By the time Jimmy Carter left office, inflation was considered the worst economic problem our nation had faced since the pre WWII era. At one time, before the Constitution was adopted, three states actually used tobacco as the legal tender. It did not take the good people of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina long to learn that they could grow their own. To illustrate the effect of how people noticed their own wealth diminishing due to the increase in the volume of money, a law was passed in all three states which made the punishment for lighting fire to fields growing tobacco execution.
In the years since the Carter Administration we have lost somewhat the sting from those years. Fewer people are around who remember them, and time has seen fit to heal some of the wounds. Listening to John Kerry drone on about the Bush economy being the worst since the great depression was comical. Anyone who was alive during that time remembers miles long gas lines, prices rising so rapidly that people were rushing out to spend their paychecks before their value dropped, often times quicker than the trek to the bank in order to cash them, and above it all, a President who went on national television to claim that the problem was that we as Americans were wrong for trying to improve our own living standards, (“there’s too much consuming going on out there.”)
Cross Posted at Musings of a Mad Conservative.
I am unsure if I have gotten my economic theories mixed up. One thing I was told years and years ago is that one key factor of Keynesian theory is taxes. Yes there is stimulus spending in a down turned economy, there is also a reduction of taxes to assist the populace. When the economy is in an upswing, government spending is reduced and taxes are increased. All liberal/leftist governments only focus on the spending aspect on the downswing and taxation on the upswing. They don’t lower spending or lower taxes when the needs are there.
@ PaladinPhil:
Poor Keynes has been transformed into an excuse for more spending when Democrats are in charge.
So is that where the phrase “Growing Money on Trees” comes from? 8)
mornin ya’ll
here is the most common sense report about the upcoming election I have seen yet
Obama Is Losing Support Like a Sinking Ship
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in the polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient — common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for John McCain four years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land.
But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama four years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now — and that is a bad harbinger.
yep, it’s a good’un…read it all
will make you go hmmmm….sounds about right
Good piece, as usual. We bought our first house in the very early 80s in the wake of Jimmy Carter -- at an interest rate of 18+%. It was like buying a house on Visa. It’s a pretty effective way of vacuuming wealth from the private sector into the public sector.
Wonderful summation of the situation we find ourselves in Flyover…
U.S. Added Only 69,000 Jobs in May; Unemployment Rate Rises to 8.2%
MacDuff wrote:
In 1970, the average house in California sold for $17,500.00 due to inflation and what is in my opinion criminal malfeasance on the part of the State in collusion with the mortgage lending industry and the realty industry by the year 2007 the average home in California was selling for $450,000.00.
That is a yearly appreciation rate of around 20%. Any honest investment advisory will tell you that any investment you make that yields over 5% per year is what is known as a risky investment. Safe, secure and sound investment typically yield around 3 to 4% per year.
A house is suppose to be one of the safest investments you can make. Anything that yields 20% per year is either a wildly risky investment, or it’s a fraudulent scam.
Well, we all know now (whether we want to admit it or not) that the housing market between 1970 and 2007 was basically a Ponzi scheme styled scam.
Wonderful post Flyover.
Those policies which some see as the result of removing the gold standard from our currency began in earnest with Lyndon Johnson,
It might help people to know that particular peg came about as a result of the post-WWII Bretton Woods Agreement which the U.S. backed out of in 1971 under Johnson.
I well remember those gas lines. The price of oil -- not the value of the dollar -- led directly to the inflation. Sometimes commodoties behave more as currency than do actual currency.
MacDuff wrote:
I had the same experience but not quite as bad in 1980. From the time that I started the building process until I closed, the rate went from 8.5% to 13.5%. I remember that my in laws were getting 17% on T-bills.
huckfunn wrote:
That’s an upside -- assuming you have money set aside to invest. What’s amazing is that the young, the center of support for these failed policies, are the very ones they victimize.
Another thing I remember. Adjustable rate and balloon mortgages. I don’t know if they were new vehicles created in that time, but I do know they became popular and wreaked havoc. I don’t think balloon mortgages are around anymore, but ARMs certainly are.
@ Guggi:
And that is with people dropping off the unemployment rolls because they’ve been unemployed for too long. It is still a scary situation out there. My wife lost her job in April, but she has a new contract now. And I have a new job! I just got the offer yesterday. It is going to be exciting. I probably won’t have the time at work to spend around here, though.
MacDuff wrote:
It sounds good, but it’s all relative. They were making great returns but those returns had less value. When inflation goes Wiemar in the next several years, it will take a pickup load of $$$ to buy a loaf of bread.
huckfunn wrote:
ooophh. kick to the gut. jeez.
Our accountant keeps after us to refinance (our current rate is 6%) -- and when I talk to brokers it turns out the fees and lenghening of our debt period puts us deeper into debt for a longer time.
We decided on a plan -- reach a certain level of savings and then decide to buy gold, pay down the mortgage, or both.
Right now it looks like debt is the killer -- we’ve reached our savings goal and we’re going to KILL the debt.
What was a 30 yr mortgage is going to end up being much shorter than that.
Iron Fist wrote:
W00T!! How are you feeling, sweetie?
@ eaglesoars:
I am much better than I was. Still lcoughing gack up from my lungs, though. And I am jazzed about this job. It looks like way more oppertunity than where I’ve been working.
Pay attention to this. If you guys aren’t reading zerohedge at least once a week, I shall smite you.
Bernanke will be printing money?
eaglesoars wrote:
We looked at consolidating several mortgages about 2 years ago and the closing fees were just stupid. So we sold one house, paid off another mortgage with what we got back and we’ll be debt free in about a year and a half. Next thing we need to do is sell this house (which we paid off 4 years ago) and get our money out of it. It sounds like a good plan, but as I stated above, if we get crazy inflation it will all be useless anyway.
@ Iron Fist:
we’ll chat privately. I’ve been remiss and have a very funny story to tell you.
Iron Fist wrote:
Congrats on the new job and good to hear that you’re feeling better. Of course having a job has a lot to do with making one feel better.
huckfunn wrote:
That’s a miracle in and of itself………….
@ doriangrey:
On top of this, California published a report under Governor Swartzenueter that is damned near impossible to find a couple of years ago. It documented the fact that in the state of California $.66 out of every dollar earned in the State of California went to pay California State Taxes or Regulatory fee’s. Many people believe (falsely I might add) that California has become so financially crippled and corrupt that it would be better for the United States as a whole to just kick California out of the Union.
To those knuckle-dragging mouth-breathing backwoods hillbillies I say… Good luck with that, with all of California’s self-inflicted problems, it still generates 1/6th of America’s GDP. Moreover, since California has basically been American’s mental asylum for the last 60 years keep in mind that all of your loony-Toons sons and daughters who moved here and made California what it is today, will if California were kicked out of the Union, they most likely would move back home. Actually I guess you guys are screwed either way since census data indicates that that is exactly what they have been doing for the last 3 years.
Oh well, California has problems, I’m the last person to deny that, but more to the point, the entire United States has those exact same problems to one extent or the other. And they are all basically the same problems. Those problems are.
Excessive Taxation:
Draconian Over Regulation:
Political corruption:
Institutionalize Political Insanity:
California is the most populous State in the Union, consequently the highest visibility state for the malfeasance that afflicts every single state in the union and the Federal government itself. Nothing that is happening in California is unique or exclusive to California, though some here would like to believe otherwise.
Personally I happen to believe that perhaps the best thing that could possibly happen to California would be for California to be forced into receivership. Then a full forensic auditing of the States financial accounts followed by the appropriate criminal prosecutions of those responsible for California’s current financial status.
Not only would that correct California’s current situation, it would send a clear and unmistakable message to the other 49 (or is that 56?) States, the days of political cronyism and corruption are over. Bernie Madoff eventually found his way to prison, but not until his Ponzi Scheme came tumbling down. California officially ran out of money on Wednesday, May 30th, 2012. The Ponzi Scheme of the California State Government is about to come crashing down just like Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi Scheme.
Iron Fist wrote:
Congratulation you evil bastage you…
eaglesoars wrote:
Actually, in Texas the real estate market is not bad. There have been some declines in value but there hasn’t been the total collapse that the rest of the country has seen. Having said that, I’m thankful that we got it sold. Didn’t even go through a realtor.
doriangrey wrote:
Harrisburg Pennsylvania has tried it -- and failed in the courts. I think because the legal system foresaw companies and individuals going bankrupt and provided for their creditors -- but not government entities. There is no legal hierarchy for the spoils, whatever they may be.
Obama’s stomping of contract/bankruptcy law in the takeover of General Motors notwithstanding.
dorien, were you in the California when Calpers (or was it Calipers) went belly-up? Was there any regulatory reform as a result of that?
More Obama malaise right here: DJ off 182; oil down $2.35
Has anyone seen this?
huckfunn wrote:
Good news and bad news. oil down is good but it lessens the impetus for drilling/fracking
eaglesoars wrote:
It also lessens the impetus for me being employed. As a private contractor, I will get no unemployment when (not if) I’m laid off.
@ huckfunn:
That’s the problem I have now. My contract runs out in mid-August. I really don’t want to spend another year over here, but I also won’t be eligible for unemployment if I leave.
I’m stuck if I can’t find something else pretty soon.
eaglesoars wrote:
Calpers hasn’t gone belly up. It took a pretty serious hit when the housing bubble burst (who didn’t), but it’s not going belly up anytime soon.
huckfunn wrote:
Sucks, doesn’t it? We’re self-employed also. I know the drill. To be clear, if we get the smaller government with Romney, our business probably shrinks. Also, he is not known as a friend of agriculture (not out of hostility, just ignorance), we’ll shrink again. We know.
Lumps. Life.
doriangrey wrote:
I’m talking back in the 80s
lobo91 wrote:
Wow! A year in August. It seems that year shot right by. Maybe not so much for you. A job in hand is worth 2 in the O-hole… or something. I’ve been a private contract my entire career. I’ve been laid off plenty of times and never collected a nickel of unemployment.
@ huckfunn:
I hate to hear that. This is a bad economy to lose your job in, no matter what spin the MFM puts on it.
eaglesoars wrote:
I’ve been here since 1970, so ya, I guess I was…
(I actually have a Calpers account somewhere from when I worked for Palomar College back in 1990 and 1991)
@ huckfunn:
I really don’t want to spend another year over here.
lobo91 wrote:
And who can blame you for that…
@ eaglesoars:
@ Iron Fist:
Thanks for the thoughts. My job will depend on how low oil and nat gas goes. It looks pretty bleak, but I’ve been in this biz a long time and have plenty of contacts.
lobo91 wrote:
I can understand that.
Speaking of work…
Later
lobo91 is in kuwait?
eaglesoars wrote:
So they tell me…
huckfunn wrote:
I seriously doubt it’s going to go all that low. Low enough perhaps to make your job difficult for awhile, but no matter how much we conserve or cut back, demand is not going to go away. The world’s population is not shrinking and demand is always increasing.
Unfortunately you and many others in your industry may find it necessary to, umm, charge less for your services for awhile to remain employed. I know that isn’t a nice thing to hear, and I’m not trying to be mean. The entire worlds economy is going to go through a readjustment, but one thing you can be certain of, we’re not going to stop using fossil fuels anytime soon.
I do hope for the best for you, but I am also certain that your industry will find ways to adjust and lower overhead costs for production rather than actually shut down production all together.
eaglesoars wrote:
Don’t let lobo BS you… he is really providing security on Newt’s secret moon base…
Guggi wrote:
And another one of Obamas stimulous green projects
goes belly up.
Does anybody actually believe that BHO doesn’t skim
off of the top?
RIX wrote:
And the bottom, the middle and all four side?
Iron Fist wrote:
C-o-n-g-r-a-t-u-l-a-t-i-o-n-s to you and your spouse !!!!!!
doriangrey wrote:
RIX wrote:
I have little doubt that that is the case either.
@ doriangrey:
It’s the only thing that makes sense.
RIX wrote:
He IS a disaster on every level of his presidency !!!!
Yesterday at the WH uneiling of his portrait,
George W recogized his wife Laura as “Our greatest
First Lady.”
Raaaaacist! The organic gardener Michelle was in the
room.
He could have said “With the exception of Michelle”
Arrest that man, hate crime!
lobo91 wrote:
And, it is the Chicago way… Just ask Tony Reznik
Guggi wrote:
RIX wrote:
That is pretty much my cynical take on it as well, and every big spending social engineering demoncratic project to boot.
Oh, Congratulations Iron First!
Are going to play the Johnny Paycheck song “Take this Job and Shove it!” on a boom box on your way out, or do you believe in not burning bridges?
doriangrey wrote:
That explains Calista’s hair.
I have to get my ass in gear for the meatspace world so I’m just going to say good day with this:
The United States, if Obama loses, is going to bring down the price of fossil fuels globally. If your employment depends on high fossil fuel prices, re-group. You have time. Having said that, if, as I anticipate, another global downturn happens, the price of fossil fuels will fall regardless. In this case, you should anticipate global unrest and make SERIOUS plans to re-patriate to safety. I am absolutely serious.
The reason the price of gold is falling is that the dollar is rising. The dollar is rising because the eurozone is in turmoil. This ain’t rocket science. Unrest in Europe has never bode well. Never.
@ doriangrey:
In his recent interview from prison, Rezko put
any questions about Obama off limits.
Why would he do that?/
RIX wrote:
Ummm, because prison is a really good place to end up dead if someone powerful and rich is pissed off at you.
@ RIX:
He’s a self-centered dazzler, failure and in my mind a sociopath.
@ citizen_q:
I’m not burning any bridges. I’ve been here 9 1/2 years, and I am proud of the work I’ve done. The medical device we manufacture does save lives. I wish them all the best, but I needed to move on for my own professional growth.
@ citizen_q:
BHO gets a piece of the action. In private enterprise
he couldn’t be a middle manager.
doriangrey wrote:
That & maybe if he is a good soldier he gets a pardon.
Guggi wrote:
Yup.
Iron Fist wrote:
Move upward while you still can, because I expect a time is coming quite soon where being upwardly mobile will become a thing of the past. Keep this in mind, for the American economy to truly recover their are 89 million American’s who need to have the opportunity to be employed again. This BS about the unemployment rate being 8.2 percent is exactly that BS, the real unemployment rate is around 22%. Putting that many people back to work is going to mean that competition for work is fierce. It’s going to be an employers market for a long time to come.
@ doriangrey:
DG -- as I recall re CALPers, they had wanted the taxpayers to “make up the shortfall” -- which went over like a Led Zeppelin.
Especially since the taxpayers were taking a 401K hit themselves.
Speaking of 401K’s -- if Obummer gets that second term, I’ll look for him to push for the 401K confiscation -- and try to do a work around if Congress is uncooperative. The proggies really want that money.
@ doriangrey:
I agree. In a way I hate to leave the job I have. It has been a stable foundation for my life for a long time. But there is no chance of my moving up here. None. We are too small. Where I am going is larger, with a lot more projects. There will be ample oppertunity fo rme to shine. Having my Old Lady back at work is a help, too. She is on contract right now, but there is already talk of making her’s a permanent position. Both of these companies are in the medical field, and both have long, stable track records. I’d have to say that our employment picture looks as good as we could possibly hope for at this stage of the Obama Administration. Now that my house is finally gone, I stand a good chance of being able to move up in the wold. Our next task is to pay off our rather large debt. That’ll take a couple of years of steady discipline. Getting off debt is the key to building wealth. Of course, if/when the economy collapses, debt may not matter, but I’d rather not have that knife hanging over my head.
Carolina Girl wrote:
Yea, it didn’t happen and they had to swallow a pretty tough pill. The 100k’s (those whose pensions are $100,000.00 or more per year) had their pensions cut by 7.75 percent. Why the hell their is one single pension paying out $100,000.00 or more a year is totally beyond me. These are public employees, not private sector upper level management retiree’s.
And if Obama or any other administration goes after 401K’s, I guess I’ll end up getting the last laugh on everyone after all. Because I spent most of my life as a professional musician I don’t have a 401K, and what was in my investment portfolio has been obliterated (can you sat 98.6 percent losses?) this last year.
@ Iron Fist:
Hey congrats!
@ Rodan:
Thanks, man! About the only down-side of thsi new job is that there is no hardware interactions that I’ll be working on. Hardware is a different beast, and it is kind of fun to work with morot controllers and radiation detectors. But this job opens up a lot of different oppertunities for me.
@ Iron Fist:
I really don’t like being an Eeyore, but I have worked in a number of industries that have undergone brutal contractions. In the late 70′s early 80′s I worked in the Nuclear energy industry, I was there just in time to experience it hitting a brick wall. As a professional Musician from the mid 80′s to the late 90′s I was there when it also ran into a brick wall, and most recently I was in the Aerospace industry when it likewise hit a brick wall.
I worked on and off again in the construction industry from the 70′s to the early 2000′s and experienced it’s brutal decline. I have friends who work in the computer electronics industry, and I feel for them because they are getting hit pretty hard right now.
Rodan has been bitching since I first started posting here about the fact that his generation isn’t seeing the upward mobility of generation before him, and while the situation isn’t as dire as he paint’s it to be, he is basically right, the sections of America that are still upwardly mobile are growing smaller and smaller. Moreover even in those sections that are still upwardly mobile, the degree that they are upwardly mobile is declining.
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/06/01/obama-awards-socialist-snubs-anti-communist-hero/
The Poland “error” was not completely a mistake. His errors reveal more about him than his scripted teleprompter speech.
New Thread.
@ Mars:
Two can play that game!