Like rats fleeing a sinking ship, many Democrats are staying as far away from Obama as possible. Most noteworthy are Claire McCaskill (in Missouri) and Jon Tester (in Montana) both purple states that could go either way and Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
by Alex Roarty
If historical precedent is a guide, President Obama should be worried about the recent spate of Democrats who have declared that they won’t attend their own party’s national convention. But the lawmakers’ decision to stay home doesn’t have other Democrats reaching for the panic button yet.
Such defections amounted to an early alarm bell as recently as 2008, when a deluge of Republicans steered clear of the Republican National Convention lest they be associated with a then-deeply unpopular GOP. Three months later, a Democratic wave swept the White House and congressional elections.
Now Democrats are the ones abandoning ship. Already five House members — Mark Critz of Pennsylvania, Kathy Hochul and Bill Owens of New York, Nick Rahall of West Virginia, and Jim Matheson of Utah –- have joined Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri in deciding that they won’t attend this year’s Democratic National Convention.
The lawmakers all say they want to focus on their home states, where most are in close races. “If you’re running for Congress and your first focus is party conventions and national party politics instead of the middle class voters in your district, then you’re focused on the wrong thing,” says Jesse Ferguson, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But the desertions have prompted GOP catcalls that their rivals are implicitly acknowledging that the president’s campaign is in serious trouble. McCaskill “isn’t just any Dem,” Republican National Committee spokesman Tim Miller said on Tuesday in a tweet. “She was Obama’s top surrogate in ’08. Avoiding him at all costs shows just how bad it is for O out there.”
[.......]
“I think problem is a little more different this time than it was for us in 2008,” said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the 2008 National Republican Congressional Committee chairman who watched his own colleagues stay away from the St. Paul convention site. “I don’t think anyone was staying away for John McCain, but there was certainly Bush fatigue.”
[.......]
Skipping conventions isn’t a new move: In 2008, six Republican senators, including four facing reelection, announced by August they wouldn’t attend the Republican convention. Matheson, who has served in Congress since 2001, has never attended a Democratic convention.
Historically, the formula for determining whether to go to a convention is simple: If your party and its presidential nominee are in political trouble, stay away.
“I’m sure a lot of Republicans weren’t flocking to the [Barry] Goldwater convention in 1964 or Democrats to the [George] McGovern convention in 1972,” Cole said.
[........]
“Basically, only something negative could happen if they are worried about image at top of the ticket,” said Eric Ostermier, a University of Minnesota political scientist. “What are these moderate or conservative Democrats worried about? Well, who is speaking? What might be said? What are the images and symbolism that will be presented?”
All their opponents would need, he said, would be one televised clip of them cheering. “It could be a powerful image and put them on the defensive,” said Ostermier, who also authors the blog Smart Politics.
Rather than foreshadowing an impending Democratic wipeout, the lawmakers’ decision to stay home is an acknowledgment that they and the president must travel starkly different pathways to victory. And that means Obama, even if his campaign remains afloat, could sink their own hopes.
The divergent strategies are rooted in demographics. Obama’s campaign has targeted a combination of minorities and white-collar whites, particularly women, to win a majority of the election. That could be a winning strategy for him, but it’s unworkable for Critz, Hochul, Matheson, Owens, and Rahall. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, each of their districts is at least 92 percent white. And particularly in the case of Critz and Rahall, who represent the culturally conservative regions of western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, respectively, their constituents are also overwhelmingly blue-collar — a group that has soured on Obama.
It’s not a new problem in the party, according to Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress, but Obama’s reliance on a diverse group of coalitions puts greater strain on other members.
“The coalition that elects Democrats is much more diffuse and diverse,” she said. “It is a coalition that is as different, it’s less white, with more different groups. People running for office, this is always a bit of a challenge, because the coalition is separate.”
Tanden added that she doubts their absence bothers the Obama campaign. “I think the campaign recognizes that winning elections is the most important thing,” she said.
In a sign that candidates in both parties sometimes feel the pressure to sever ties to the national party, Montana Republican Senate candidate Denny Rehberg said on Monday that he won’t attend the GOP gathering.
Read the rest - Obama and Convention No-Shows: Divorce or Amicable Separation?
Tags: Alex Roarty
Don’t be fooled, if these Democrats such as McCaskill get re-elected, they will vote straight down the line with Obama (well Manchin won’t).
@ Speranza:
Yup, they just want to distance themselves because Caligula is not popular in their state.
@ Speranza:
Absolutely. Remember all of the Blue Dog Democrats
rolling over for Pelosi.
conventions are show business, nothing more…a disgusting display of political arrogance….shut them down and feed some poor people instead
I have a funny thread for tonight at 8:00 PM EST.
@ heysoos:
We all know they don’t truly give a rat’s-ass about the poor. If they did they would not con them to be generational dependents of government hand outs.
Rodan wrote:
They are trying to pull the wool over the eyes of their non leftist constiuents.
RIX wrote:
Yes and they got voted out in 2010 or decided not to run in 2012.
Futbol note
Spain vs Portugal in UEFA semifinal at 2:30 on ESPN
GO SPAIN!!!!!!!!! a friend of mine battling cancer is from Spain
I’m gett ready to out to the saloon get drunk and watch the contest
@ mawskrat:
and Germany plays tommorrow
@ Speranza:
And Pelosi didn’t bat an eye.
Oh wait, she can’t bat an eye.
@ mawskrat:
My Grandfather was Galician-Spaniard.
Vaya Espana!
@ Speranza:
And with them goes the Democrats’ majority in the legislature. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the party on the Left if Obama goes down in flames in November. Will they fake back to the center? And will anyone believe them if they do?
Futbol calls…BBL
Iron Fist wrote:
If Obama goes down in November -- I wonder what type of candidate they will be looking for in 2016.
@ Speranza:
The god-king cult is not popular everywhere.
Speranza wrote:
I keep hearing shrillery, not that that means much.
Iron Fist wrote:
It depends on how Romney governs. If he governs like a Liberal, he will be primaried in 2016 or Economic/Fiscal Conservatives will bolt from the GOP and back a 3rd Party.
The ball will be in Romney’s court.
@ Rodan:
@ citizen_q:
See my #18.
Speranza wrote:
Aside from Hillary, I can’t think of a single Democrat with national stature; their bench is remarkably weak.
@ MacDuff:
NY Governor Andrew Cuomo. He is an Economic/Fiscal Conservative .
it will take a while but but the fix is in…liberals drove business out of CA, paid public employees like royalty, bent over for the tree huggers destroying the farming industry, closed off the shores for oil production, etc…fuck them….same for Illinois…liberals are destroying our unique culture….magnificent Chicago is a war zone, CA’s central valley resembles dust bowl Kansas…liberalism in general, is killing us
@ MacDuff:
Oh ,I think Pelosi. The masses are demanding her?/
@ RIX:
See my #21.
O/T Lurch speaks!
Kerry: Don’t ‘Prejudge’ the Muslim Brotherhood
Kerry, miss lindsey, and mcLame for the core of mo-bro-hood circle jerk.
What a naive fool kerry is, and so easily played. morsi will promise anything he thinks his jizya bankers want to hear. He will just do it as directed by sharia.
No wonder the world treats us as fools. They see those we choose as leaders.
RIX wrote:
someone should ask Pelosi if she thinks CA is a model for the rest of America
That little twit Carney called the contempt vote
on Holder “political theatre”
Really? Border Agent Brian Terry dead, ICE Agenet Jamie
Zapata dead, over 300 Mexican nationals dead.
But, the White House thinks that it should just go away
& they demonize the investigators.
@ citizen_q:
That man should be in jail for being a traitor. I can’t believe he came winthin 100,000 votes in Ohio from being President.
@ Rodan:
For a moment I though you might say Bloomberg
We may have confused Turkish jet for an Israeli one, Syrian minister claims
@ heysoos:
I doubt that she would understand the question.
I have seen carp fish with more electrical activity
behind their eyes.
“Waiting to Exhale” from my favorite anti-Moochelle watchers, talks about tomorrow’s important announcements. Also she discusses the ‘last supper’ as the failed Dinner with Barack fundraising scheme.
@Kafir. This site is for YOU!
http://newsbird.wordpress.com/
@ RIX:
@ Rodan:
It is wonder how many truly despicable human beings people leadership positions in the democratic party.
@ Kafir:
It looks like Syria is scared of Turkey. They never would have gotten a shot near an Israeli Jet.
Rodan wrote:
Yeah it could be Coumo.
Kafir wrote:
Let met guess the turkish pilot had a hooked nose?
/
RIX wrote:
You spelled ‘carp’ wrong. /
Some good news.
Arizona: Romney 54%, Obama 41%
citizen_q wrote:
The old timers who are in that big precinct in the sky
would not recognise the modern Dem Party
Dems fundraise off pending High Court healthcare decision
You gotta be fucking kidding me.
DANGER DANGER!
Rodan wrote:
they should be…I read the Phantom was unarmed and said so when they realized they were in Syrian airspace
@ RIX:
If Romney governs as a Liberal, Coumo will run to his Right. If Romney and the GOP win this election, the ball will be in their court. They will have no excuses.
@ yenta-fada:
LOL! Thanks! {Yenta}!
@ yenta-fada:
Actually Pelosi has plenty of the other spelling.
Her eyes are brown, because she is crap that high.
@ Rodan:
Yeop!
“Sorry boss, we were going after jooos boss -- no really!”
@ Rodan:
Does Israel even field F4s anymore?
I have no idea of the make up of Israel’s airforce, but thuds are a rather old platform.
Funny though, muzzie in trouble? If all else fails find some way to try and blame the Jooooooooossss.
@ citizen_q:
I think they keep them in storage. But no, they don’t have active F-4s.
@ Kafir:
Both Turks and Syrians are scum.
citizen_q wrote:
to question whether that plane was Israeli or Turkish, illustrates just how stupid the Syrians are
citizen_q wrote:
Well, perhaps the planes they flew did….
@ Rodan:
Guess I should’ve read the article:
@ citizen_q:
Rodan wrote:
I don’t know about Syrians, but I have met very decent Turks who are secular and accomplished. (that does not include my BIL, he’s a jerk)
citizen_q wrote:
Hillary Clinton looks increasingly grotesque in all the photographs I see her in.
Taliban Praise Muslim Brotherhood Election Victory In Egypt, Calls It “Strong Blow To American And Zionist Expansionism”…
MacDuff wrote:
Yes but who could have seen The Amateur from Cook County becoming POTUS?
@ Macker:
I had not looked at it that way. The muzz are so childish and petty in that regard, I bet they would drop the F4 if someone claimed it was a Jewish plane.
I remember a suadi fatwad against Pokemon, seems it their fevered minds they though Picachu meant I am a Jew, and they did not want their children so corrupted.
Rodan wrote:
He might go full bore Pataki (you know what I am referring to) on New Yorkers.
Kafir wrote:
arrggh. lalalalalala I can’t hear you. / sigh.
Kafir wrote:
Oh yeah that rings sincere. Israel does not use F4′s any more (they are in reserve) but uses exclusively F15′s and F-16′s.
@ yenta-fada:
I have no use for them.
citizen_q wrote:
F-4′s have both a pilot and a navigator/weapons officer.
This is cool from newsbird. Live blogging the SCOTUS.
http://scotusblog.wpengine.com/
@ Speranza:
Pataki was horrible after his first term. He was a puppet of Al D’Amato.
Speranza wrote:
Perhaps its the effects of the muslim succubus she has been having a lesbian affair with?
Rodan wrote:
Dirty Al D’Amato -- the grave digger (along with his stooge George Pataki) of the New York Republican Party.
Another neat pic from newsbird. The Obama’s fundraising fail “The Last Supper”
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/26/Obama-to-Host-The-Last-Supper
citizen_q wrote:
So, if Hillary had become president, the infiltration of the Muslim Brotherhood in America/the world, would have continued at the same pace. There wouldn’t be the racial setback from Oblowhole’s admin though.
@ yenta-fada:
Well, Obama does see himself as a Christ -like figure …
@ yenta-fada:
I don’t know, but it is highly suspicious. Especially in light of the attempts to whitewash (is that raaacist to say?) what the muslim brotherhood is, it goals, and record breaking promises once it has taken its advantage.
Iron Fist wrote:
I bet he sees himself as a mo-ham-head like figure, but more fabulous.
@ Iron Fist:
If you are around tonight, my 8:00 Pm Thread will have yuo rolling. If you’re not around, take a peek.
citizen_q wrote:
The Clintons are UN globalist elites. Some things really aren’t that complicated. They have much more brains, polish, and connections, but it’s the same club. WE, despite the Elders of the Protocols, ARE NOT IN IT. The powerful internationalists have more in common with one another than any citizen they claim to represent.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/clip_image00221.jpg
Rodan wrote:
Is it gonna be a white guy? lol lol
O/T Well here is a first, a lefty who splody doped in his heart
‘Where The Wild Things Are’ Author Wanted To Assassinate Bush And Cheney
As Dana Carvey would say a Church Lady on SNL, “Well isn’t that special?!”
@ yenta-fada:
Has nothing to do with race. Just wait and see and you will be rolling.
@ Rodan:
I probably won’t be around, but I’ll check it out after I get back from the gym in the morning.
Romney up 54 to 41 over Obammie in Arizonz. Gee, I wonder why? ///
@ huckfunn:
Pay attention, Huck. Rodan already put that up.
@ Iron Fist:
Its too funny!
yenta-fada wrote:
In 2008 she only looked good (in a political sense) in comparison to Obama, Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd, and Edwards.
@ heysoos:
Meh. Syria knew perfectly well it was a Turkish plane. They probably watched it on radar from the moment it became airborne. They are just spinning in hopes of stopping retaliation by the Turks.
@ huckfunn:
hey its all good. After a slew of bad polls today, some good news is in order!
65 percent of Americans say Obama better suited to handle alien invasion than Romney. Aliens from south of the border agree whole heartedly.
Alberta Oil Peon wrote:
The IAF has a big Star of David for its Air Force rondels.
Congressman Jessie Jackson Jr has been MIA from the
House for a couple of weeks before his office finally
had to say something.
It seems that Jessie jr is somewhere recovering from
exhastion. They won’t say where.
His wife Sandy, a Chicago Alderman won’t say where.
Why would anybody doubt the word of the Jackson family?/
citizen_q wrote:
The last Israeli F-4s were retired in 2004.
@ Da_Beerfreak:
As I wrote earlier on this thread -- they fly nothing but different versions of the F-15′s and F-16′s (A, B, C, D, and I models).
@ huckfunn:
Aha! But there may be an explanation.
This is funny!
Nearly 65% think Barack Obama would be better suited than Mitt Romney to handle an alien invasion.
Obama does look like an Alien anyway!
@ RIX:
How could a guy who has never worked an honest day in his life possibly suffer from exhaustion?
Rodan wrote:
If you’re referring to those Qunnipiac polls on OH, PA and FL, Obama is only leading in those because Quinnipiac boogered the poll sample. As usual, they polled a higher percentage of dims.
OK everyone, Charles Johnson has decreed that fast and Furious is a bogus issue!
Alberta Oil Peon wrote:
Heh! ack ack…
Rodan wrote:
I don’t care what they say, I think that they polled
a Star Trek nconvention.
@ huckfunn:
Actually with the Florida one, it was accurate. Obama is running some crazy ads here.
He has a Spanish Radio Ad one that takes a snippet of Glenn Beck fear mongering about Puerto Rican statehood. The ad goes onto say that Republicans want to kick Puerto Rico out of the US, strip Puerto Ricans of American citizenship and deport them all.
One big problem, the GOP has supported Puerto Rican statehood since Nixon.
Romney has to start counter these ads.
Rodan wrote:
Great, now everybody is still alive!
Fortune interviewed ATF agents involved in the fiasco
who said that there was nothing wrong.
This convinces Johnson? WTF?
@ RIX:
Nothing to see!
@ Rodan:
Yes, the FL poll looks to be very close. But here are the polling samples for OH:
Republican 26% 337
Democrat 34 422
Independent 34 417
Other/DK/NA 5 61
Here are the samples for PA:
Republican 29% 394
Democrat 37 447
Independent 28 344
Other/DK/NA 7 67
Bogus.
@ huckfunn:
Oh yeah PA and Ohio are bogus. Those two I saw and was like, come on.
Rodan wrote:
Brian Terry could not be reached for comment.
@ Speranza:
I just can’t believe that.
I think we are due for a Chucky thread this week.
@ Rodan:
Yup
@ Rodan:
He has a Spanish Radio Ad one that takes a snippet of Glenn Beck fear mongering about Puerto Rican statehood.
Glenn Beck isn’t running for POTUS or even a public servant.
BTW- I met a couple of Puerto Ricans in the Army and from they told me, they don’t want statehood.
Rodan wrote:
Groan…
Rodan wrote:
He’s a demented fat bastard.
@ Buckeye Abroad:
That’s the trick the Democrats do with ads. They take a commentator and go one to say they represent the Republican party. Ann Coulter’s commenst are the ones they use most in ads in Florida.
It’s a very divisive issue on the Island. I’ve read pros and cons and it really is split down there. There is a referendum this November. Heck I’m sure Arizona probably regrets statehood now!
@ Speranza:
he’s a Corpulent Creep!
Rodan wrote:
I’m raging next door…and I’m starting to get pissy about this subject
Brotherhood-Affiliated Egyptian Official Has Antisemitic Outburst on Live TV After Learning an Israeli Is on the Program
@ Kafir:
There is something inside him. It almost kicked through his skin
huckfunn wrote:
All those Will Smith movies like “Independence Day” and “Men In Black” and its interminable sequels have convinced them that only a Magic Negro™ can save humanity from aliens. If a white guy did it, liberals would scream that he was being “Terracentric” and “Zeta Reticuli-phobic”.
@ The Osprey:
Ha ha ha, That’s true!
New thread.
Rodan wrote:
and aging corpulent creep.
citizen_q wrote:
Isn’t that the book the obama’s read to the children on Easter???? To me it seemed an odd choice to read to children on Easter instead of a Easter Bunny themed book and all. ‘Where The Wild Things Are’ seemed very inapproiate to me to read on a religious holiday.
/I don’t believe in coincidences.