Almost every poll has Romney ahead in North Carolina. The NBC/Marist Poll has Obama leading 46-44. What is interesting is how they reached this number!
46% of Voters in North Carolina are Democrats? I call bogus and ironically it shows Obama’s weak position. If Obama is running in the mid 40′s in a poll that has 46% of voters as Democrats, he’s in trouble in that state.
Tags: NBC/Marist Poll
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Actually, they aren’t that far off. I just checked the figures:
Democrat: 43.4%
Republican: 31.4%
Unaffiliated: 24.9%
@ lobo91:
Much closer to reality than I would have expected.
Now, are those registered or likely voters?
@ mfhorn:
Those are the state’s registration figures, which matches what they polled.
I don’t know that it’s a good model for what will happen in the election (and it probably isn’t) but the sample wasn’t actually that bad.
lobo91 wrote:
But they oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans in this election’s context, IMO.
So they oversampled dems by 2.6 percent and undersampled reps by 2.4 percent. In other words the gave the Bolshevik 5 percentage points more than one can reasonably argue the population supports.
…and at that rate they only have him ahead by 2 points?
So they’re predicting that the Bolshevik will need 3-5 points of fraud to win the State. That might be a bit too much to hope for.
It’s not so much a poll of NC’s registered voters then. It’s really a poll of “People we wish represented NC’s registered voters.”