The democrats currently hold the Senate with a majority of 53 – 47. However, the big change-up could be coming in November. The republicans currently have 10 seats up for re-election while the democrats have 23. Obamacare will now be a prime issue in the election and it is an issue that is hugely unpopular in many of the states which democrats need. Here’s how it shakes out:
Maine: Olympia Snowe’s retirement came as a welcome surprise to many conservatives, but it leaves former Maine governor Angus King as the likely winner in that race. King is running as an independent, but he is clearly a Democrat. The Republican nominee in Maine is Secretary of State Charlie Summers, who is running more than 25 points back of King at this point.
Massachusetts: Scott Brown is running a neck and neck race with Fauxcahontas, Elizabeth Warren. Obamacare is popular in the state, thanks to citizens’ familiarity with Romneycare (even though Romneycare is destroying the state’s finances). The Obamacare decision will have little role here.
Nevada: Dean Heller is up against Rep. Shelley Berkley. The race is tight, and Berkley has a history of problems with Congressional ethics. Current polls show Heller up narrowly over Berkley. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is pouring his resources into Berkley’s campaign. According to recent polls, just 34 percent of Nevadans thought that the Supreme Court should rule Obamacare Constitutional.
Indiana: The defeat of Richard Lugar in the Indiana primary has put this state in play. Polls show Mourdock and his opponent, Joe Donnelly, essentially tied. Obamacare is massively unpopular in the state; 57 percent of Hoosiers don’t like it.
So the prediction for Republicans is that they will lose Maine, and hold the other three. At the worst, Republicans will lose two seats of these four.
Now for the Democrats. And this should have Republicans licking their lips:
Hawaii: Daniel Akaka retired from his seat in this state, and former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, who is quite popular, is running for the seat. Both Democratic possibilities, Mazie Hirono and Ed Case, poll well against Lingle – but the last polls done were back in January.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill is in serious trouble against whichever Republican emerges from a bruising primary in the state. She runs behind Sarah Steelman, John Brunner, and Todd Akin. And Obamacare is massively unpopular in the state.
Montana: Jon Tester is running into an uphill battle against Congressman Denny Rehberg – polls show him trailing by a small to moderate margin. While Tester is a big Obamacare advocate, there’s no polling data indicating which way Montana leans on the issue.
New Mexico: Sen. Jeff Bingaman has decided not to run for re-election, opening the door wide for a Republican challenger. But current polling data has Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) running a few points ahead of Heather Wilson. That polling data is at least three months old. Obamacare as a whole is not popular in the state, which will undoubtedly hurt Heinrich.
North Dakota: Sen. Kent Conrad isn’t running this time. That leaves Congressman Rick Berg (R) taking on Heidi Heitkamp in a very tight race – the polls have been bouncing back and forth between the two, although most of the polls showing Heitkamp competitive come from Democrat-leaning pollsters. A full 70 percent of North Dakotans didn’t support Obamacare. Heitkamp did.
Virginia: The latest polls have showed a bounce in support for Republican former Sen. George Allen; Tim Kaine, the former governor of the state, has dropped in support at the same time. They’re now running neck and neck. As with other swing states, Obamacare is not popular in Virginia.
Wisconsin: Former governor Tommy Thompson is destroying Tammy Baldwin (D) in the polls in Wisconsin; Scott Walker’s big win in the recall effort is a boost for Thompson as well. And Obamacare remains massively unpopular in the state – by a 2-to-1 margin, Wisconsinites thought it should be overturned by the Supreme Court.
Florida: Polls show that 50 percent of Floridians didn’t like the Obamacare decision. And Rep. Connie Mack (R) is running even with Sen. Bill Nelson in the latest polls. This could be a significant boost for Mack – although Obama’s immigration decision was popular in Florida, which could be an equal boost for Nelson.
Michigan: Senator Debbie Stabenow is running strong against Republican challenger Rep. Pete Hoekstra in current polling. Barring a major upswing for Hoekstra, Democrats will likely hold this seat – although Hoekstra may be able to ride Mitt Romney’s coattails, since Romney is running very strong in Michigan at present.
Ohio: Ohio’s one of the toughest races to call. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running against Secretary of State and Republican up-and-comer Josh Mandel, and the polls have been vacillating wildly. Mandel was closing the gap in May polling, but dropped behind again in June, perhaps as a result of President Obama’s frequent campaign stops in the state. Nonetheless, Ohio doesn’t love Obamacare.
By the way, many pundits are worried that the Obamacare issue will become a “distraction” away from the prime issue of the economy. I think that’s twisted logic. Obamacare is very much an economic issue and the Romney Campaign needs to make sure that it ties Obamacare to the economy at every opportunity.
Read the entire article here: The Path to 50. Hat tip Breitbart and thanks to Ace of Spades for the map.
Hmmm, map made by imbeciles who think California is a Blue State (Hint, it’s a Purple State trending Red). Why bother with an analysis so obviously flawed…
doriangrey wrote:
Give me the link and I’ll be happy to put that map up.
Doesn’t matter how many seats in the Senate the Gutless Old Party holds if there’s no will to lead the Country out of this mess.
doriangrey wrote:
Cough… cough… The map that I’ve put up is a Senate map. The latest CA senate poll that I can find has Feinstein up by 16 points.
This means we all have to get out and vote, not only for POTUS, but also for US Senator and Representative -- especially those Americans who are overseas through military service or having to go elsewhere to find work.
Expect to see a lot of hanky-panky in preventing overseas troops from getting their absentee ballots in time. It’s happened before, and it’ll happen again.
@ 1389AD:
I’m thinking that we’ll see Romney coat tails in MI, MO and VA.
@ doriangrey:
@ gulfloafer:
Heh. Hey, where’d DG go?
@ huckfunn:
You’ll see coat tails in VA, one way or the other.
Mike C. wrote:
I’m encouraged to see that Zer0care is unpopular in VA as it is in many other states. Could be the determining factor.
Obama care may not be issue 1 for voters, but it will likely be issue 2. It is part of issue 1 (the economy).
Good analysis.
huckfunn wrote:
Hope so.
It’s all-important for local Tea Partiers to help along the process by getting out the vote for US Senate, Representative, and yes, state and local candidates.
A good governor is vitally important to serve as a bastion against federal infringements, as Bobby Jindal is doing now.
EBL wrote:
The national debt is very much a part of issue 1 (the economy) as well. People just don’t understand what’s gonna happen here, and our current path cannot end well.
EBL wrote:
Thanks. Just seems pretty obvious to me.
So if Fla purges it’s voter list will the map change
brookly red wrote:
and that is why it is so important to have republican governors and state houses.
@ huckfunn:
And their other Senator is Babs Boxer. California is the bluest of blue states. Where Dorian lives may be purple, but they aren’t the people electing California’s Senators.
Lingle was a popular Governor, but she will lose to the dimwit (and she really is stupid. as in ignorant, dumb and slow,) Hirano. Like CA Senate races, the dyed in the wool Democrats are as loyal as blacks to the Democratic Party. Facts mean nothing to them. They are totally delusional and think Obama is Hawaiian. The Japanese Americans , who have the highest voter turn out of any demographic in America, vote race and Democrat.
As I predicted, Turkey is reluctant to venture its aircraft into the Syrian defense. Ground troops muster for Mad Erdogan.
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=74556&pageid=37&pagename=Page+One
Got to soften up the missile defense sites first, which, BTW were moved to the Israeli border in the last few years.
Hey now THIS is what I call a worthy cause…
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1713328680001/slices-of-home?intcmp=features
Keep in mind this is the class of 2006 when a hugely unpopular war shifted many columns to democrat. It was the boost that put them in charge rolling into 2008. A lot of traditional republican areas went briefly blue, but as the election of 2010 showed, that tide has shifted. I expect all six seats that swung in 2006 will swing back in 2012. I also expect gains in at least three seats. My dream is a strong showing with 60 conservatives so we can get ObamAA+ care gone for good. With out 60 there will be a filabuster by the full-of-it-bastards.
JeremyR wrote:
But wait…. Zer0care is a tax. No filibuster and under reconciliation, only a simply majority is needed.
huckfunn wrote:
PIMF
drive by
CNN reporting Yitzak Shamir has died.
@ 11 EBL: I think the ObamaCare insurance issue fell out in favor of Obama. There are too many people in the country getting screwed over in some manner by the insurance industry. All of them are going to want to dump it for anything else. Most people aren’t going to care if they pay a payroll insurance tax if it’s not great.
If the GoP wants to hit on Obamacare they need a system that works better for people. The GoP should be focusing on systemic corruption issues and merge that into Obamacare concepts.
eaglesoars wrote:
The BBC is also reporting it:
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir dies
@ 1389AD:
Here in New Hampshire we are going to get a new governor. I have met with many of the candidates and I am going to vote for Ovide Lamontagne.
darkwords wrote:
Most people I know are pretty happy with their benefits, and don’t want much to change.
http://www.ovide2012.com/
coldwarrior wrote:
And Secretaries of State!
@ 28 Bumr50: Most I know are unhappy with how their insurance works. A lot of hidden costs and lack of coverage. It will break down into whether they are voters or not. It’s easy voting leverage. don’t like your insurance go vote. Traditional if someone is happy with their situation they are less likely to be stimulated to vote. The task of the GoP then is to frame the Obamacare issue in a way that makes people want to vote against it. I think they are trying, but they are not successfull. The local media here is full of pro Obama healthcare propoganda. It’s also loaded with stories that the people that are getting screwed by bad health care decisions live in states with Repulican governors. The only way to break that media knot is to have someone like Trump blast his horns and take the criticism
@ darkwords:
Most people who understand how the insurance and medical system works want tort reform first.