Right on time, a weekend dump of ‘unexpected’ numbers, I think we should start referring to Obama as the ‘Unexpected President’:
Hiring Probably Cooled in Second Quarter: U.S. Economy Preview
By Alex Kowalski – Jul 1, 2012 12:01 AM ETThe jobs tally in June probably crowned the weakest quarter for employment in more than two years, evidence the U.S. recovery has lost momentum, economists said before reports this week.
Employers increased payrolls by 90,000 workers last month after a 69,000 gain in May, according to the median forecast of 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department figures due July 6. Excluding government agencies, private hiring may have climbed by 100,000, concluding the smallest quarterly advance since the first three months of 2010.
Enlarge image US JobsJob seekers speak at the Veterans On Wall Street job fair in New York. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg
The job slump has shaken confidence and stalled household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, making the expansion more susceptible to any fallout from the European debt crisis. Slowing consumer and global demand is also leading to a cooling in manufacturing, a mainstay of the recovery, another report this week may show.
“We really need to see job creation pick up, which is the only thing that’s going to get households spending on a sustained basis,” said Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “The economy isn’t going to get exceptionally weak from here, but neither is it going to get much stronger.”
The unemployment rate, derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, probably held at 8.2 percent, the economists predicted. Joblessness has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch in monthly records dating to 1948.
Slower GrowthThe expansion has lost luster. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter following a 3 percent rate in the prior three months, Commerce Department data showed last week. While household spending underpinned last quarter’s gain, incomes stretched by weak job creation will probably limit growth prospects.
Stronger economic growth and diminished joblessness would bolster President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects as November draws nearer. Obama attributed the weakness in job growth in May primarily to European governments’ inadequate response to the continent’s debt crisis, saying “our biggest challenge is not here in the U.S. but the economy overseas.” Republican candidate Mitt Romney said Obama “is always quick to find someone to blame” for the struggling economy.
Stocks surged on June 29, capping the biggest June gain since 1999, after European leaders reached an agreement that alleviated concern banks will fail. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 4 percent last month.
Manufacturing CoolsManufacturing may also offer less support to the economy as domestic and global demand fades. The Institute for Supply Management Inc.’s factory index fell to 52 in June, the lowest level in eight months, from 53.5 the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey median ahead of a report tomorrow. A reading greater than 50 signals expansion.
The purchasing managers group’s services index, which covers almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 53 last month from 53.7 in May, a report on July 5 may show according to economists surveyed.
To spur a faster expansion and lower unemployment, Federal Reserve policy makers announced on June 20 they would buy securities to extend the maturities of assets on the bank’s balance sheet, thereby lowering longer-term interest rates.
They also lifted forecasts for joblessness, anticipating the unemployment rate will average 8 percent to 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter of this year versus an April estimate of 7.8 percent to 8 percent.
“There is a lot of uncertainty in almost all markets today caused by low growth rates and high unemployment in the U.S. and slower or no growth globally,” Joseph Pyne, chairman and chief executive officer of Kirby Corp. (KEX), said during a June 25 call with analysts. Shares have slumped 7.9 percent since the shipping company cuts its earnings forecast that week.
as a Master Plumber/Pipefitter I never had a problem
finding work though I’m glad that I retired and out of
the job market today
If that doesn’t encapsulate the abject economic failure and basic dishonesty of this administration, I don’t know what does.
mawskrat wrote:
That’s because everyone’s mortgaging their future for a college diploma so they can get a job at Starbuck’s. It really thins the competition for people in the trades.
@ MacDuff:
I could care less about the world economy.
We are not responsible for that.
Prebanned wrote:
He doesn’t either, except as another scapegoat.
@ MacDuff:
I sometimes think I was the last generation to go to college and graduate with ZERO debt from it. I had a scholarship along with some help from my dad and a job during the semester and working 6 days/week during the summer.
This economy is on fumes and I think all we need is one event or push and this thing might go down like a house of cards. Too many articles seem to be pushing it. And for the first time I saw a TV commercial for long term storage food.
@ mawskrat:
@ MacDuff:
I am in IT, and have thought about learning a trade as a backup. I have not found one though that I like and would feel comfortable starting and doing in my 50′s and with some minor health issues.
I agree with many here, trades have gotten short shrift in our current culture.
@ MikeA:
I wouldn’t mind getting a year of food for me and my wife. Get stuff we’ll actually eat, and cycle through it to keep it up to date. Things are eventually going to come apart unless we do something pretty drastic. I don’t think the electorate would stand for what needs to be done. Too many people still want their free goodies. That is going to bankrupt this nation.
@ MikeA:
Yup. One good earthquake or hurricane in the wrong place and we’re screwed.
I read an estimate that said that a category 3 hurricane hitting Manhattan would do $35 trillion in damage.
That’s two years’ worth of our GDP.
@ citizen_q:
the only thing bad about working the trades
is that it tends to beat you up after 20 years
or so.
every time Pelosi speaks she’s
stepping in it
@ Iron Fist:
Look at what’s happened in California, Greece and France.
They absolutely refuse to face reality.
well I’m out to water the gardens
ya’ll be good now yah hear
MacDuff wrote:
Remember when Reagan used to blame other countries and previous presidents for all the problems we had in the early ’80s?
Yeah…me neither…
@ Iron Fist:
Do it slow. Thats what I have been doing. Buy a litle more each trip to the grocery. You are all ready buying stuff you eat. Just make sure it shelf stable. I told the wife its like insurance that I hope we never need. Even my wife, who is not one to think like I do, has been putting stuff aside… just in case
lobo91 wrote:
What if said hurricane hit DC? 8)
@ Macker:
That might be an improvement
@ Macker:
name it Michelle
gonski
@ lobo91:
@ mawskrat:
Perhaps God could up it to a Cat5…that’ll definitely be an improvement! 8)
@ mawskrat:
I hear you. Nothing is without risks. After almost 20 years in IT, I have Carpal Tunnel in both hands and Trigger finger in several fingers.
I just have had surgery for Carpal Tunnel and 2 trigger finger releases on my left hand 2 months ago. Getting much better, but still recovering.
MacDuff wrote:
The Europeons saw that and essentially told him to blow it out his skinny ass.
MacDuff wrote:
This doesn’t adhere with his zero-sum world view. If they’re down we should be up
When things like this are popping up in Brooklyn I predict a lot of sit-outs in November.
Wow! Look at Zer0′s hellcare bump in the polls… NOT. When the ruling came out on Thursday he was at -20 on Rasmussen. Friday, Saturday and Sunday he went up to -15. Today he’s back at -19.
@ Urban Infidel:
Are they waiting for the Race Riots to start afterward?
huckfunn wrote:
…and some of them are blaming the US for their economic woes. The lack of statesmanship, alas, is a global problem. Obama, however, is leading the way having been playing the “blame game” for more than four years now.
Urban Infidel wrote:
“I asked him what he thought of it and he told me he thought it was Ronald Reagan.”
I see rewriting history and shifting blame has filtered down to the masses. Trickle-down duplicity!
MacDuff wrote:
I think I’ll play the blame game and blame Obama, the dims and the MFM bootlickers.
Macker wrote:
There won’t be any riots. Just more outbreaks of Derangement Syndrome.
MacDuff wrote:
He was a little drunk. LOL! He rightly said the face looked white.
waldensianspirit wrote:
That’s a very good point!
@ lobo91:
WTF?
Wow!
@ Urban Infidel:
I am looking forward to Romney Derangement Syndrome! They will go more nuts over him than they did Bush. Hysteria is all the Left has left to sell.
@ citizen_q:
I read the the description of Carpal Tunnel at the Mayo clinic link, and now I am convinced that I have it. Guess it’s time to do something about it.
@ Iron Fist:
I’m definitely looking forward to a little RDS!
@ lobo91:
@ Rodan:
9/11 certainly didn’t cause the economic woes of the 00s, but it was the pin that burst the bubble. Right now, we’re wholly unprepared for so much as a ripple, much less a catastrophe.
Iron Fist wrote:
Yeah, I’ll be curious what Romney Derangement Syndrome will eventually link like. They tried to turn Bush into a soulless Hitlerian dictator, which was comically out of character. Doing the same with the Ward Cleaveresque Mitt Romney will be even more amusing.
They don’t seem to understand that a requirement for effective parody is an element of truth.
MacDuff wrote:
The biggest catastrophe I can think of would be Obama being reelected.
@ Iron Fist:
@ Urban Infidel:
Many on the Right have RDS as well. I plead guilty,. I hate Romney and have no use for him. I’m just voting strategically to get rid of Obama. After that, I have no loyalty or any need to support his Progressive agenda.
@ Rodan:
We’ll see if he actually has a Progressive agenda. I think that he’ll bend more towards a Center Right position, especially if we elect a good Senate.
@ Rodan:
IMO everyone should always vote “strategically,” rather than for a party, ideology, or personality.
@ MacDuff:
They will continue to attack his wealth and his religion.
@ Iron Fist:
The Republicans have not governed Center-Right since the Reagan era. Many Conservatives are setting themselves up for a disappointment. Romney is the most Leftwing Republican since Teddy Roosevelt. He could care less about a 2nd term. He just wants to put President on his resume.
I hope to be proven wrong, but observing the Republican Party since I was a teenager,. doesn’t give me much faith. This is the last time I will ever vote Republican unless they actually govern as Conservatives which I doubt.
@ Bumr50:
This is it for me and I mean it. You will see after the election that I keep my word. The Republicans have to prove to me they are worthy of my vote after the election. If they don’t, I am voting Libertarian in 2014 and beyond.
Rodan wrote:
It’s a measure to buy time. After Ozero is booted out, the Dems have nothing. No more socialist messiahs up their sleeves.
While the rest of us suffer, the god-king and his staff live good.
White House salaries edition
Rodan wrote:
Why would this even remotely surprise you? 9/11 wiped between 5 and 10 trillion dollars out of the US Economy in those few hours that the attacks took place. New York isn’t just the financial hub of the United States, it is the financial center of pretty much the entire world. New York simply isn’t designed to withstand a Hurricane, one of the disadvantages of having Manhattans financial district all in once place is that a single large catastrophe wipes out the whole financial district.
@ Urban Infidel:
That’s why the Republicans better be careful. They will not have Obama as a boogeyman forever to force people to vote for them.
@ MacDuff:
Shit, they’re already going after his Mormon beliefs….
Rodan wrote:
ROTFLMAO… I’ve been trying to convince you to do this for, what 3 years now?
@ doriangrey:
I’m just stunned at 35 Trillion. That’s just, wow an astronomical amount.
If this was any other president with this absurd economic
performance, he would be down a minimum of 20 points.
But race is a huge factor & a lot of people expect
“Obama” money.
@ doriangrey:
If they don’t deliver, I am done with them. I will not be the only person on the Right either.
Rodan wrote:
I’m actually surprised they think it would be that low. Me, I would bet it’s more in the 50-65 Trillion dollar range.
doriangrey wrote:
Such as a well-placed Mohammedan nuclear explosive.
@ RIX:
Plus the hipsters view Obama as part of Galactic essence. I was out Friday and heard Hipsters talking about how Obama is a spirit sent by the Galaxy to save Earth.
@ doriangrey:
Just thinking about that has my mind spinning.
BBL.
Rodan wrote:
Well, consider the fact that it’s some of the most expensive real estate in the world, pretty much at sea level, and would likely be utterly destroyed.
Rodan wrote:
Not necessarily. Most think he hasn’t gone far enough. Did you see this? I took these pics yesterday. It is the only Obama street art in the area and they are scant and few. And it’s not flattering and a far cry from the flat-out fetish worship in ’08;.
@ Rodan:
Was General Seti in their midst? 8)
Rodan wrote:
I’ve been “Done” with them for years, you know that. They are only good for advancing my own agenda, which is to say conservative causes, when they can be pushed, shoved, cajoled or otherwise bullied into it. But I long ago quit trusting them or voting for them just because they were republicans. Now a days when I vote for a Republican, it’s all about the strategic long game. Which generally amounts to area denial against the Marxist Democrats.
The Republicans sucks, but they a least aren’t actively trying to turn America into a Marxist Utopia (their just appeasers with socialist tendencies). Any time I think that one of the conservative Libertarians or Independents has an actual chance of winning a local election, thats who I vote for (unless the Republican is a genuine Conservative like Tom McClintock.
Urban Infidel wrote:
No doubt, but both will be a tough sell, in the end. Americans don’t take to class warfare naturally; the affluent and the poor meld fairly seamlessly. Yeah, there was the OWS thing, but it never became much of a broad-based movement because, by and large, “the 99%” are well fed, clothed, air-conditioned and warmed people with cell phones in their pockets, iPods in their ears, computer access and automobiles.
Romney’s religion may be an easier sell due to its reputation for “oddness” and a basic ignorance of Mormonism among the general public. That said, criticizing a faith that does a lot of good and literally no harm is perilous and likely to make the critic look worse than Mormonism.
US manufacturing shrinks for first time in 3 years
ht drudge
Rodan wrote:
(1) and (2) you can’t possibly know these things. Now, if I’m wrong and you have proof, share it.
(3) really? so, if 2016 brings a similar choice between a slightly Conservative candidate and a left wing wacko like obama (hillary maybe), you would actually NOT vote for the slightly Conservative candidate? meaning, you would not vote AGAINST the nutjob. i believe that’s what they call cutting off your nose to spite your face. or something.
Rodan wrote:
translation = you’ll no longer join the fight against the left and you’ll no longer join the fight to take back the party. got it.
lobo91 wrote:
Yup, and the way all those huge buildings and skyscrapers are lined up in nice neat rows.
Rodan wrote:
There is an effort on some parts to appear cool.
Supporting Obama seems cool to them & usually they
are nerds, far from cool like Johnson.
@ Alberta Oil Peon:
You will enjoy the nerve conductance test!
Not!
Rodan wrote:
Unlike economics, politics is a zero-sum game so an inconsequential vote, or a non-vote is a vote for the Democrat. I’m afraid that anyone who thinks an independent or any manner of third-party candidate has so much as a snow ball’s chance in hell of even being competitive in a presidential election is fooling themselves.
@ MacDuff:
Third party candidates, for the most part, can’t even be competitive in local races. How many Libertarians are in any kind of office nation wide? Are there even ten? I’m not aware of any. Certainly there are precious few independents in Congress. One Socialist. No Libertarians. When they elect a few Congressmen they can get back to me.
@ Iron Fist:
Third party candidates are never going to be successful in our system because of the way it’s set up using single-member districts. They might get a few seats in a parliamentary system, since it’s based on percentages, but that’s it.
That’s one reason some people want to change our system to one using “proportional representation.”
Not that it’s going to happen.
@ Rodan:
The thing you really need to know is that up in Canada, it took 13 YEARS to get rid of the “Progressive Conservatives” and elect a true Conservative government. Does America have enough time left?
texasam7 wrote:
No. Only collapse or civil war will change the United States now.
Rodan wrote:
He’s the Brother From Another Planet. Did he beam down from Farrakhan’s Funkadelic Muthaship?