Hat tip Yenta Fadda
Well, we knew going into this campaign season that the goal of Barack Obama, beyond all election goals was to have unemployment below 8.0%. No sitting President, outside of FDR has ever been reelected with numbers that bad. Just like many of us predicted, and were roundly ridiculed as conspiracy theorists, the last employment report before the election gave us an unemployment number of 7.8%. The problem for those of us on the right, is not the concept that for the first time in 44 months there may be some real headway in the world of employment statistics, that our friends, neighbors, and family members may in fact be experiencing an end to the economic misery that has been needlessly inflicted upon us. The problem is that this report could only be considered truthful in the land of Unicorns, the mythical kingdom where our President seems to be from.
For those who do not know by now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not determine its full employment report based on hard data. The contents of this monthly report are based upon the interpretation of answers to two surveys which have been conducted randomly each and every month of our nation’s existence. One survey conducts a poll amongst 400,000 companies which meets the minimum size requirements to be considered, and the other survey is of 60,000 U.S. households. The reports that are created from these surveys are nothing more than the interpretations of those wonderfully accurate polls that we have all become so fond of.
This is not the conspiratorial part of the article, just some perfunctory analysis of the obviously fudged statistical conclusions of our federal government, used to tell us what the state of our economy is. While the more oft reported U3 number, the guess as to how many Americans are actively looking for work, but can not find it has been falling steadily for the past two years, the truer measure of labor force participation and real unemployment number U6 has remained unchanged since 2009. It stands fast at 14.7%. While our economy added 114,000 jobs, our population increased by 150,000 during September. This marks the 48th consecutive month that available jobs increased by a number lower than population growth. In what universe would an unemployment decrease be possible?
In the Universe of Unicorns, where we could merely shift people from one category to another with a number two pencil, an eraser, and creative accounting. According to zerohedge.com, the BLS report included a seasonal adjustment of 377,000 jobs, (something that happens every year at this time in anticipation of temporary workers being added to cover increased commerce around the holiday season,) What makes this so startling this time around, is that it represents the largest such adjustment in the history of our government’s tracking of these statistics. Merry Christmas! Then there is the adjustment made to reflect the real change in Birth versus Death rates, as compared to the estimations. Unfortunately, the revisions are also estimates, albeit supposedly more refined estimations. For July and August, those revisions were for a total of 52,000 people, also a new record for such revisions, by a mere 1000%. So, out of the 114,000 jobs added, 429,000 were nothing more than pure statistical fudging.
So, outside of the outright lies being told to us by the BLS, which should just have its moniker officially changed to BS, of what quality were the non fictional jobs added to give us this far from rosy picture? As it turns out, of the very same quality that sent the Democrats into a tizzy in 2004.
This report is part of a broader trend that we’ve seen over the past few years, in which job gains have been concentrated in lower-wage positions. And this isn’t just spin from the Romney campaign. Over the summer, the liberal National Employment Law Project released a report that was highlighted in the Atlantic, which focused on this trend. The report found that:
– Lower-wage occupations were 21 percent of recession losses, but 58 percent of recovery growth.
– Mid-wage occupations were 60 percent of recession losses, but only 22 percent of recovery growth.
This is illustrated by the NELP chart above. Though Obama has touted modest job gains during the recovery as evidence things are getting better, looking merely at the headline jobs and unemployment number obscures the fact that the middle class has still struggled to find quality jobs, while more Americans are settling for lower-paying work.
Now, on to the more conspiratorial part of today’s musings. (you didn’t believe that I would have skipped that after reading the headline did you?) Guess what! As it happens, at least two of the economists who produced today’s full unemployment report are Obama donors. Just because people are in government positions does not mean that they are non partisan, even though they are required by law to be so. It is an impossible task to ask any person with an opinion to suddenly cast their personal feelings aside simply because their employment requires a certain amount of neutrality. They still root for one side over the other. Keeping that in mind, due to simple attrition and propensities for hiring versus not hiring, meaning that Democrats hire a lot more than Republicans do while in charge, about 80% of those who work for the federal government, even when the Republicans are in charge, tend to be left of center politically. The BLS, (BS,) is certainly no exception to that rule.
So, exactly how out of whack was today’s employment report? Check out Hilda Solis’ reception on CNBC, hardly a hostile forum for her.
Still not convinced that this report is utter nonsense? Consider this little bit of historical perspective. The last time we experienced an increase in total employment of 853,000 jobs, it was 1983, and our GDP was growing at an eyepopping 9.2% per year. Currently our GDP is growing at a putrid 1.1% per year. On its face, this report is baloney from its first sentence to its last. Only a true moron would be capable of believing it, which pretty much sums up the exact voting block B. Hussein Obama is shooting for.