I’ve been predicting a landslide election to fire Barack Obama this year roughly since the day he won his election in 2008. I was called crazy, over optimistic, and a Republican homer looking at the world through elephant colored glasses. The election cycle has gone through varying stages of optimism for both sides, with everyone one and their brother insisting that their horse would have no trouble winning in the end. During the first week of September, most in the country declared Mitt Romney’s candidacy to have been dead, left lifeless by the inevitability of the greatest political orator to have ever read words written on a teleprompter. The first debate happened, and suddenly, Barack Obama found himself in an election against the real Mitt Romney and not the straw man cardboard cutout which he had created for the express purposes of running as his adversary. Through all of that, my prediction never wavered. It is not that I am such a genius, as I would describe my own abilities as somewhat pedestrian, or average. What I am able to do though is pay attention to both history and reality.
Barack Obama’s policies have been tried before, both foreign and domestic. They were disastrous then as well. So, here we are again, trying the same old Marxist economic philosophy, once again calling them new. Shockingly, they produced the same exact results as they always have. Once again, when people express a desire to live a better life, our Socialist leader informs us that we are all too greedy for the larger benefit of all of society, and that our current economic malaise is the best living standard that we in fact deserve. He has gone on to say that this is the new normal that we should just accept now. My keen study of history has told me that this is a losing message, and one that always gets itself defeated by landslide proportions. It’s simply a matter of recognizing that I’ve seen this movie before. We’ve all seen this movie before.
Upon pointing out that we’ve all seen this before, I am quickly reminded that this time it’s different. Barack Obama is more like a cult figure, with a more fervent fanatical following than any politician in history. We’ve all seen that movie before as well, and truth be told, that movie never ends well for the cult leader either. In each instance, the more fervent the cult leader’s following is, the harder his fall from grace has been. Barack Obama will be no exception to that rule, and what we are witnessing now is the inevitable fall from the top, his implosion if you will.
There have been plenty of signs, and all of them glaring us right in the face. Starting with the polls, it has become necessary for the demographic models, which are supposed to be indicative of the proportionality of what our voting populace will resemble, to include samples of D+13 in order to make it appear as though Barack Obama is even close. These samples have become common place despite the fact that it has never happened before in history, and despite the fact that a record percentage of Americans now self identify as Republican and an opposite record low percentage of Americans now self identify as Democrats. Early vote totals have suddenly found their way into media reports, and these numbers should scare the October out of Team Obama. Using the all important Ohio as an example, a state where many are claiming Obama has a lock due to the early voting effort, as of this morning, he has 220,000 fewer early voters having cast their ballots so far, while Mitt Romney has outpaced John McCain by 50,000 votes. In 2008, the Obama margin of victory was 262,000 votes. My analysis already shows Mitt Romney winning the election with or without Ohio, but the example shows clearly that Barack Obama will not enjoy the same voter enthusiasm that gave him the historically high D+8 sample which produced his 53 to 47 margin in an election that he won. Scott Rasmussen last week predicted a sample that would end up being R+2, which would actually fit well with other partisan splits from previous elections.
This morning, Barack Obama spoke to one of his strong holds in Ohio, Franklin County, and drew an unimpressive 2800 people. Romney’s crowd in the normally Democratic stronghold of Avon Lake Ohio, in the Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Lorain, Wood, corridor that has sent Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur to Washington for ever and a day, was an overflowing crowd of 15,000 plus, and would have been much larger had the local authorities not been forced to turn people away. Where the two campaigns send their candidates and surrogates are important clues, as well as the money that those campaigns spend, and where. Every indication was that the Obama Campaign gave up on Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado three weeks ago. His firewall so to speak became Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. In the mean time, Mitt Romney has taken to campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. While the Obama team immediately dismissed that turn of events as desperation, they have privately been shifting their funds into those states to keep what they already had listed as safe Obama territory, robbing their firewall of much needed funds.
Another of the tea leaves waiting to be read is the rhetoric itself. Ed Morrissey at Hot Air wrote three weeks ago that his realization of George H.W. Bushes impending defeat in his reelection bid against Bill Clinton occurred when he referred to Al Gore as Ozone Boy at a campaign event in Ann Arbor Michigan. Presidents who are winning do not self diminish in that fashion. True to that form, Barack Obama has named a new medical affliction called Romnesia. He has resorted to the juvenile name calling that people who are desperate resort to in these elections. Barack Obama has self diminished. So evident was this, that on Sunday evening of last week, his plane was actually turned around mid flight on its way to Florida in order to have Barack Obama not appear at another campaign event in which he would do more damage to his Presidential immage.
Perhaps my favorite sign of the impending Democrat Apocalypse to which we are about to be treated however, is the spate of pre elections obituaries being written and the pre election blame going on. One by one, I am watching the Democrat Pundits on television give their predictions of overwhelming victory with confidence in one sentence, and then explaining how the Romney victory should not be confused as an actual mandate in the next.
Then, there’s Harry Reid. The following is a quote from Senator Reid offered up yesterday in the Washington Times, and it says defeat in language so deafening, I find myself wanting to begin my celebrations early. I’ll knock on doors and make phone calls instead. No use in not continuing to work in an effort to make this a reality.
Five days before the election, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has ruled out trying to work with Mitt Romney should he win next week.
“Mitt Romney’s fantasy that Senate Democrats will work with him to pass his ‘severely conservative’ agenda is laughable,” Mr. Reid said in a statement on Friday, trying to puncture Mr. Romney’s closing election argument that he’ll be able to deliver on the bipartisanship President Obama promised in 2008 but has struggled to live up to.
This election is going to take the shape of another Republican Wave election, similar in result to the 2010 midterms. That would match the historical trend going back to include the previous 7 Presidential elections, just by the way as I have predicted for four solid years.
Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.