Tomorrow night, somewhere near half of the country will undoubtedly be crying foul, because their predictions for who would be the winner and who they voted for fell somewhat short of reality. Before you Democrats scream bloody murder about how Barack Obama could not possibly have lost the election when everyone you knew voted for him, and all of those polls said otherwise, maybe a small lesson as to how those models are put together, and why some are more predictive than others is in order.
This year has been one of the most egregious in my memory as far as pollsters using their publications to sway public opinion rather than recording it. It became so blatant this year, that the Obama Administration actually filed suit against Gallop, for using an unapproved demographic model in one of the polls that they published.
When you read the top line on a poll, you will see something like this:
Based on a survey of 750 likely voters, x percent support Barack Obama, y percent support Mitt Romney, z percent support another candidate, and t percent are undecided.
What you may not know is how that top line is constructed. First things first, it was not put together with a mere 750 interviews. For that model populace of 750 likely voters, our polling company probably conducted between 1500 and 2250 interviews. In order to collect those interviews, our polling company probably logged around 12500 phone calls. Out of those results, a sample population was literally constructed, based on the polling company’s educated guess as to what the demographic make up of the electorate would eventually be.
What is uncanny, is that within the 20 or so subgroups that make up the eventual demographic model, the polling companies will be in very close agreement. That is to say, in a much simpler version of one of their subgroups, they all pretty much agree that 86% of people who self identify as Republicans will be voting for Mitt Romney, and that 85% of those who self identify as Democrats will be voting for Barack Obama. To be certain, those groups are further splintered into categories delineated by age, gender, education, income, profession, and anything else the pollster feels is pertinent.
Where the pollsters disagree is in what that population that finally makes it to the polling booth will ultimately look like. Something that you may have noticed in some of the criticisms are the D/R/I splits. This is the easiest piece of information that will, within seconds give you some idea as to which way a polling company may be skewing its results. During the 2008 elections, the final model had a partisan split that favored Democrats by 8%. The D/R/I split was 39/31/30. For the midterm elections of 2010, that model had changed to reflect this split, 36/35/29.
So, we can see that relatively small changes in the demographics can lead to vastly differing results. A Democrat wave election of 2008 was changed to an historic Republican wave election in 2010 with our model’s makeup shifting in the following manner, 3% smaller representation of Democrats, a 4% increase in the representation of Republicans, and a 1% decrease in the percentage of Independents.
When the pollster contacts a respondent and asks those important questions about support and intentions, he will also ask for some demographic information. At the end of the day, he will know already that he wants his model to be x number of people who are 18 to 29 year old Republican men, and y number of 29 to 40 year old Democrat women, and so forth. That definitely will not be represented exactly in the number of respondents. What he will have is some representation from each of those groups that is included in his sample demographic.
This is how that sample is constructed. The model’s makeup is, within most polls, predetermined, before the first interview is conducted. So, we’ll give our example model a breakdown of 40/40/20, just as an example. The pollsters may have contacted, quite by accident more females then males, more Republicans than Democrats, more younger people than older, or any other possibility. For the ease of use, our example is only worried about total Democrats, total Republicans, and total independents. Out of 750 likely voters, we have determined that there will be 300 Democrats, 300 Republicans, and 150 Independents, regardless of who was actually contacted. If 86% of Republicans responded that they plan of voting for Mitt Romney, then the total added to his top line from that group will be 258. We’ll give Barack Obama the remaining 42. From the Democrats who responded, 255 will be added to Obama’s top line number with 45 being credited to Mitt Romney. Amongst the independents, let’s assume that they’ll split straight down the middle, for 75 each. This gives us a made up poll of a statistical tie, almost exactly 50/50. What happens to our example if we change the model?
Applying the interview results to the 2008 demographic split, we get a result that gives Barack Obama a decisive victory of 52.5% to 47.5%. If however, the demographics for the voting populace looks like the 2010 model, the same exact poll finishes with a top line that reads Obama 50.40% to Romney 49.60%, a much different result.
Bear in mind that in every poll which exists in the real world, Romney is winning the independents by huge double digit margins. In the last 7 Presidential Elections, the demographic split in the voting model reflected the previous midterm election almost exactly, and not the previous Presidential election. The polling companies today are trying their level best to pretend that 2010 plainly did not happen, and so by the way is our President. It is therefor hard to understand on what basis anyone with any sense of history is able to look at this year’s election and determine that not only will this old and tested rule be thrown out completely, but that the percentage make up of Democrats will exceed the record breaking make up of the 2008 elections by a ridiculous margin.
The bottom line is therefore easy to manipulate, base on the ultimate make up of the partisan split. For instance, if the sample chosen reflects something that looks like the latest piece of fiction as published by ABC, with a partisan split that predicts the D/R/I split will be 40/29/31, their numbers within the subgroups may be dead on accurate, but the question any sane person would ask, is where on Earth did you come up with that sample?
During the election of 2004, all of the major networks put together exit polling data based on unbelievably optimistic partisan models and announced around noon on election day that John Kerry would be inaugurated as our 44th President. So believing in the less than perfect science of polling were the Democrats at the time, that cries of shenanigans were shouted through out the land. Court challenges were filed, and subsequently thrown out by judges who are still laughing. (By the way, will somebody please tell the good people at NBC that they can call Ohio for George W. Bush already, it is now 8 full years past the election.) It is necessary to read usually until page 29 or 30 of published polls to see how they derived their top line numbers, and usually those methods of construction are more important than the headline the polling company gives its product.
Normally, I wouldn’t bother with an essay that was designed to prove to an unsuspecting public just exactly how wonkish I am, but when I see people on my side react with the same Eeyoreish hysteria each and every time one of these polls gets released, it makes me want to scream, wake up, we’ve all seen this movie before.
On Wednesday, the rest of us will know what the internal pollsters of each of the campaigns have told the respective candidates, that Mitt Romney will be our 45th President, and Barack Obama will have two years on the lecture circuit campaigning to win his party’s nomination for 2016. Every Democrat and his brother will be screaming bloody murder that the polls could not possibly have been that wrong, even though they’ve never actually gotten it right.
Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.
Flyover, this is a really good piece. Thanks. As a footnote, check this out.
Obama will declare victory early in order to supress Romney votes.
Don’t buy it.
Good article! It is what people need to know about polls. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Polls are all three. Takning an unbiased, representative poll is hard. Getting a poll to say what you want it to say, OTOH, is pretty easy. The media have their narrative that they want to sell, and all the pollsters have cooperated with it. So when you are told that CNN has Romney tied with Obama, and that the split is D+11 (11ty!!), those in thenknow realize that had the sample been better constructed Romney would be winning comfortably. There’s no way Obama gets D+11 anywhere outside of San Franscisco. I thi8nk the real polls must be disasters for Obama. That’s why they are so transparently cooking the books for him.
Thank you sir for putting a great piece together to simply explain how the polling results are generated. While I knew some of it from stats classes that I long since forgetten (and with therapy will forget about yet again), you have forged a wonderful piece.
@ eaglesoars:
I’ve got a headline on that. I can see Obama trying it, and I can see the MFM going along with him. This is a get-out-the-vote election, and Obama will do anything he can to suppress our votes.
Hello
pollsters said that do not weight their polls by party identification
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/republicans-to-pollsters-too-many-democrats-in-your-surveys-20120925
meanwhile at intrade: Obama winning chance 70.9%
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
something else for ya’ll to remember
Will Someone in the Press Prematurely Project Obama the Winner Based on Dem-Dominated 31-State Exit Polls?
Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2012/11/06/will-someone-press-prematurely-project-obama-winner-based-dem-dominated-#ixzz2BRryYcWw
Set against this expectation, don’t be surprised if someone in the press, perhaps even at one of the big networks, gets overexcited and projects Barack Obama the election winner based on Tuesday’s early exit polls without realizing that their scope and design have changed from previous presidential elections in two fundamental ways.
Networks, AP cancel exit polls in 19 states
Breaking from two decades of tradition, this year’s election exit poll is set to include surveys of voters in 31 states, not all 50 as it has for the past five presidential elections, according to multiple people involved in the planning.
Imagine that. The exit pollsters have excluded only four tiny 2008 Obama-favoring enclaves (three states and DC) with less than 4 million people and only 14 electoral votes, while casting aside 16 McCain-supporting states with about 24% of the nation’s population and 149 electoral votes, well over half of the 270 needed for victory. How convenient.
Why exclude deep-red Texas but not deep-blue, heavily populated, and likely non-competitive California, Illinois, or New York?
Despite what ABC’s Merkel has said about the continued existence of a true “national exit poll,” it seems pretty likely that news organizations will be receiving “overall” demographic-driven exit polling results from the 31 included states similar in appearance to ones presented in previous years which included the entire country. They will clearly show Obama leading Romney (if they don’t, we’re looking at a Romney landslide of epic proportions). Murphy’s Law (anything that can go wrong, will go wrong) says there’s a high likelihood that someone either won’t notice or won’t be told that this year’s “overall” demographic results aren’t comprehensive, and will jump at the chance to break what ends up being a bogus “Obama Pulling Away” or “Obama Wins” story.
clarion county PA, (r) tom smith is not on the ballot on the machines.
he is running for senate, no big deal, just write it in.
@ ferb123:
when your man loses today i expect you to be here, standing tall to take the abuse at 0900 eastern time tomorrow. if not i will delete your account.
you can dish it out, i expect you to be able to take it.
@ ferb123:
welcome back
did you enjoy your ass beating from last night
you really must have a thing for pain
@ coldwarrior:
heh
the little pos sure got quiet
coldwarrior wrote:
This should be fun.
rain of lead wrote:
and if his man wins i expect everyone to be here to take abuse from him
Iron Fist wrote:
Did you see the video Fox just aired of the New Black Panthers ‘guarding’ a polling place?
I’m so glad I live in Virginia. I can take my gun(s) to the grocery store.
back to bed. Molly had a difficult nite.
rain of lead wrote:
I enjoy every day here
@ coldwarrior:
well if Obama wins he should be able to crow
I really don’t think the American people are THAT stupid
turnout
turnout
turnout
turnout!
I voted this morning. Voter # 45 — that was me.
@ eaglesoars:
I’d have liked one of the SOBs to try and intimidate me. I’d have been so intimidated I’d have killed him.
@ Iron Fist:
the crap that is gonna go on today is gonna be epic
(and not in a good way)
eaglesoars wrote:
bring that son of a bitch over here to bitter clinger country.
coldwarrior wrote:
hmmm, lets see. 9 am EST tomorrow spanking session with coldwarrior @blogmocracy. Marked.
Iron Fist wrote:
coldwarrior wrote:
One of these days, we need a thread on MEN
And the women who love them.
ok. sleep
@ eaglesoars:
we vote in the basement of an old italian catholic chuch. maleek shabasshole wouldnt last 2 minutes there if yinz know what i mean.
Already a long, slow line here in AZ.
Don’t mind the line as much as the disgusting old fart in line behind me chewing his gum halfway out his mouth. And he just belched.
Here is a link to the local Pittsburgh morning talk station’s streaming broadcast. Quinn and Rose in The War Room for western PA updates and reports of Demcong shenanigans
http://www.iheart.com/#/live/2025/?autoplay=true
http://www.warroom.com/index.php?signedup=1
I give it no more than a 50-50 chance that anything will be settled by 9 AM EST tomorrow.
eaglesoars wrote:
Morning -- sent you an email last night.
New avatar BTW.
Wifey and I voted this morning together.
Doing our little part to turn MD into a red state.
Good Mornin All…..make it a great day by voting
looking around the net at reports of voting in ohio
huge numbers of Romney voters
every one saying massive turnout
@ Miss Trixie:
I am looking forward to needing a new avatar.
@ Miss Trixie:
hey chick
long time no see
welcome back
@ Scott Madsen:
my gf in high school babysat for him…back in the b94 daze
two interesting article why party id stuff do not skew polls.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/06/the-fight-over-party-identification-examined
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/19/how-party-id-became-partisan-and-why-it-shouldnt-be
woah
Final Romney Rally Rocks New Hampshire: 10K Overflow Crowd at 11PM
Mitt Romney closed his campaign in the state where it began — New Hampshire — in front of a raucous, energetic, and enthusiastic crowd of over 10,000 at the Verizon Center. Thousands more people were outside of the arena, unable to get into the event.
Pardon me…I need to throw up….
ferb123 wrote:
i will be in the ICU saving lives tomorrow AM. the crew here can more than handle you
@ Miss Trixie:
{Miss Trixie}
@ ferb123:
so if I read that right, it says the polls are crap.
we knew that already
what else ya got?
@ Storagemanager:
Damn, I’m not that impressed by anybody.
Thank GOD we have Obama!
@ coldwarrior:
no worries
the little pest won’t be back
after Obama loses, he’ll crawl back under his rock
@ rain of lead:
[Dark, malevolent laughter]
Obama couldn’t get but 15,000 at his Rally in Wisconsin yesterday, and that was during the day. I linked Althouse on it.
Storagemanager wrote:
american nuke subs spotted off the coast of russia.
this is what the sub guys do. now back to your regularly scheduled program
a metaphor
Obama Ends Campaign in Half-Empty Arena
@ coldwarrior:
Good guy doing a lot for us…. I’ve bumped into him a few times around the south hills here in PGH.
citizen_q wrote:
rain of lead wrote:
Iron Fist wrote:
♪ ♫ Good morning ♪ ♫ {{{all}}}!
Iron Fist wrote:
Christie is exhibiting serial character flaws. I hope he is smart and stays in NJ. The country cannot afford more pols such as him.
@ Storagemanager:
I heard Rush go back to that Feb 2009 comment yesterday. Stunning in his prediction.
@ coldwarrior:
We gave one of their ELINT ships safe harbour in Jacksonville while Sandy was passing. Too damn close to Savannah for my liking.
We are witnessing history in the making and America will come roaring back. Food for thought:
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/05/wall-street-insider-promises-of-a-romney-economic-boom/
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/10/25/white-house-insider-mitt-romneys-quiet-prayer-amidst-the-sound-of-thunder/
A prediction, with the methodology, and charts, ‘n shit
I’ll take that.
Trolls…did you see storage link to the boogeyman
the girl is outof school today
she might post here under my nic
told her to id herself if she does
I am eating a Isley’s chipped ham and Lebanon Bologna w/american cheese sandwich and drinking a Yeungling for breakfast as a plenary act to the spirits of clingers past to guide the hands of the Pennsylvania electorate on this fateful day.
Scott Madsen wrote:
i am FAR more worried about the muzz and the commies who are here in this country now than some russian naval vessel.
Scott Madsen wrote:
ah, a high church yinzer!
coldwarrior wrote:
Russia and China back Iran and Syria and will use Iran like a weapon.
Drudge…four more tears
Storagemanager wrote:
bullshit.
and i am in no mood to explain why this morning.
russia is not the enemy. our real dangerous enemies are already HERE in america right now
Our division in Richmond literally shut down today because the Mayors office decided utility contractors were not allowed to go out & perform work on election day.
In other words, don’t want to tie the streets up so someone might be a few minutes later to vote for Obama.
The Dems are scared shitless down here.
Romney up 92K in OH early voting?
hmmmm
So says Gannett’s Cincinnati.com, which has the data from the state government posted at its site this morning. I put the question mark on the data because I don’t see anything up yet at the Ohio Secretary of State’s website, but occasionally the media will get updates prior to the website. According to the data, Mitt Romney already has 697,143 votes before the polls opened a couple of hours ago, while Barack Obama only has 605,546, a difference of almost 92,000 votes. The data is time-stamped at 2:03 ET this morning, and the link on the front page of the site reads, “Early voters: How Ohio has voted.”
Cuyahoga, which includes Cleveland, should be a Democratic stronghold, and perhaps the one area where Democratic early-voting efforts should have produced their biggest lead. Instead, Romney has a lead of about 14,000 votes already, 127,570 to 113,373. In Hamilton County, where Cincinnati itself is located, Romney leads by over 5,000, 29,969 to 24,808. A quick scan of the data shows Romney leading in every county with more than 25,000 EVs.
This may be a very big deal, if these numbers are correct
@ coldwarrior:
Dearbornistan and on the Plateau near Nashville. Damned Right they are already here. We’ve been importing them like they were made of gold.
@ coldwarrior:
I study this shit..sell it to someone else.
Storagemanager wrote:
i live it.
so sell it somewhere else pal.
I said Islam was winning in 06 and took shit….bring it…I know of what I speak.
Iron Fist wrote:
yeah, lets not check that out.
its like washing hands after the virus is already in the body.
06 lgf….good Islam is helping us in Iraq…hahahahahahahahahahahaha
good islam…hahahahahahahahaha
@ coldwarrior:
You’re correct, slinging payloads is a bit messy, archaic, and unnecessary when all you have to do is sit back and watch seeds long planted strangle the native flora.
@ Storagemanager:Where?
@ rain of lead:
IF those numbers are correct, Romney has won Ohio. I expect the Republicans to get more votes today no matter what the early vote tally really is. Obama’s “Firewall” was to be way up in EVs. If he is down he is already done.
PM of Turkey…there is no good or bad Islam…there is just Islam.
@ Iron Fist:
In 2008 as soon as the polls opened at 6 a.m. the line was out of the building & into the parking lot. i live in Bobby Scott’s district which is predominantly Democrat & my polling location is minority heavy.
At 6 a.m. this morning the line was only halfway up the hallway in the school where I vote so maybe this is a good omen as far as Dem enthusiasm.
EBL wrote:
where what?…
@ Storagemanager:
russia is not our enemy, they are competitors in the global game. islam and the left are. they are real, they are here, and no one wants to admit it.
we have idiots in the gop who will bitch all day against russia and not bother to look in our own borders for the virus. its easy to blame an external force. its tough to look inside
time to go vote.
i bet none of the brave homies from the black panthers are at my polling place.
two thumbs louie and nickie the knife wont play that game
Google …Russia and China back Syria and China…
About 116,000,000 results (0.33 seconds) http://www.google.com/#hl=en&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=Russia+and+China+back+Syria+and+Iran&oq=Russia+and+China+back+Syria+and+Iran&gs_l=hp.3…1834.14418.0.14805.36.32.0.1.1.1.891.7421.0j2j3j2j3j2j4.16.0.les%3B..0.0…1c.1.Ercbc9sorcM&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=105ad04a2e2a7787&bpcl=37189454&biw=1680&bih=904
@ Iron Fist:
I think obama’s firewall is on fire like a california hillside
during summertime
Storagemanager wrote:
should be Iran and Syria sorry.
@ coldwarrior:
A top cleric said Russia is the #1 enemy to Islam. Our real enemies our the Marxist interlopers who have managed to install themselves into the highest offices in the land.
If there’s any doubt, just check out what Valerie Jarret said this morning & be afraid….be very afraid. Glenn Beck is all over it right now.
@ John Difool:
Let’s hope. I know we have the enthusiasm this election, and if Gallup’s demographic prediction is close, that’ll carry the day for us. Also remember, all the polls show Romney doing veryu well with independents. It is only by over-representing Democrats that they are able to keep the polls competitive.
play nice
back at lunch time
There is a Black Panther at the same Philly voting
station as four years ago.
He is opening doors for voters in his para-military uniform.
He is able to do this due to Holder & a court consent decree.
There should be a cop standing right next to him.
@ John Difool:
Got a link to what Jarrett said?
And the Muslim brotherhood is not building a Caliphate with Americas help….hahahahahaha….maybe sleeping sheep listen…I do not.
Iron Fist wrote:
Not only that oversampling Dems but the media bleating the narrative that Obama has basically already won the election trying to tamp down conservative enthusiasm.
If it’s close, you can count on several Dem media outlets calling it for Obama early to attempt conservatives from showing up at the polls like they did in 2000.
@ coldwarrior:
……you forgot Icepick Pete. He’s gone I’m sure, but the guy was so notorious I knew of him from an elderly Yinzer neighbor I drank and bitched about Clinton with in the Carolinas ten years before I moved here
MikeA wrote:
No, but Beck was saying what she said in a nutshell was that they in essence have been compiling an enemies list during this campaign & won’t forget who their friends & who they’re enemies are after this election.
That’s the sort of talk you’d expect straight out of Venezuela or any other banana republic
Fox news tv…RECORD turnout.
we are doomed>LOL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228263/John-Dimo-Witch-doctor-105-Presidents-ancestral-Kenya-village-predicts-victory-Obama-tomorrows-election-residents-prepare-celebrate.html
Who needs polls? 105-year-old witch doctor in President’s ancestral Kenyan village predicts Obama will win
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2228263/John-Dimo-Witch-doctor-105-Presidents-ancestral-Kenya-village-predicts-victory-Obama-tomorrows-election-residents-prepare-celebrate.html#ixzz2BSEK0pIA
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Today will or should be a good day. America will return to true prominence in the world, and the NHL should get back to work entertaining me.
@ John Difool:
Did she say it again or is this a report from last week when she paid a visit to the Chicago headquarters.
Original report came to Ulsterman from a in the room at the event campaign leaker to Wall Street Insider:
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/valerie-jarret-after-we-win-this-election-its-our-turn-payback-time-wsi/
Scott Madsen wrote:
Yea, that’s it. First time I heard about it though.
Nevertheless, that’s crazy talk, pure & simple.
The UN is a real waste of good real estate in NYC…
@ John Difool:
According to Jarrett:
“After we win this election, it’s our turn. Payback time. Everyone not with us is against us and they better be ready because we don’t forget. The ones who helped us will be rewarded, the ones who opposed us will get what they deserve. There is going to be hell to pay. Congress won’t be a problem for us this time. No election to worry about after this is over and we have two judges ready to go.”
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/11/01/valerie-jarret-after-we-win-this-election-its-our-turn-payback-time-wsi/
@ Storagemanager:
I hope it means great Republican turnout!
Chris Matthews seen holding his leg and mumbling….the thrill is gone…the thrill is gone…
Miss Trixie wrote:
Two judges ready to go ‘eh? I assume she means after two of the current ones have suspicious accidents or contract mysterious illnesses.
Thats some chilling shit right there.
@ John Difool:
There is a well written article out there about the connections between Jarret’s Family, Axelrod’s, and Frank Marshall Davis that is frifgtening in its implications. She is the brain or control of the usurping marxist troika. Look at her eyes, you won’t like what you don’t find there.
Storagemanager wrote:
and since 2001 america has helped create 11 islamic republics for the caliphate and actively arms al-qeda.
look inward first.
blaming russia for our problems is like obmama blaming bush for the economy.
@ coldwarrior:
was just stating a fact…america backs the sunni and russia backs the shia…
John Difool wrote:
oh certainly not!
russia is evil! they are our enemy! they are the big threat!
NOT
islam hates russia because russia kills its islamic enemies, and now the russian orthodox church is on the rise again.
russia becomes more christian while we circle the drain. yeah, lets blame russia some more!
pathetic and lazy.
@ Miss Trixie:
The money quote from Jarrett is “Congress won’t be a problem
for us this time.”
They will recognize no Constitutional restraints.
Every war we have fought was to avoid this.
Scott Madsen wrote:
Believe you me, I’ve seen that woman’s eyes, she has doll-eyes…black & lifeless.
Batshit crazy all the way.
People should worry…..what will a lame duck ..pissed off Obama do to America?
@ Scott Madsen:
I dislike this. The only way to get rid of this individual is to vote in a new President. Tomorrow can’t arrive quickly enough.
@ coldwarrior:
SUNNI Islam hates Russia…not SHIA Islam.
Scott Madsen wrote:
Kirly wrote:
Just as long as he voted for Romney . . .
Storagemanager wrote:
I’m not too concerned about this, he can’t do anything domestically that can’t be rolled back come January.
However, as far as foreign, can’t remember who it was but they were saying he could very well start another war out of spite just to bog down & embroil the next administration in.
I could totally see him doing that.
Will a lame Duck Obama…open the gates of Gitmo?
@ John Difool:
Syria
Judge reinstates Republican election monitors pushed out by Demcong Philly election officials
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials
Storagemanager wrote:
By default that draws in Iran too, so sure, why not.
Scott Madsen wrote:
Wonder how many U.N. election observers were present & lodged formal protests when those GOP poll watchers were evicted?
The fight to see which SUNNI group will ruile Syria…
@ John Difool:
No need for international observers in the enlightened cantons of America such as Philly, Detroit, Chicago et al, they are all in place like Plano Texas and the Northern burbs of Atlanta where all the Neanderthals dwell
Scott Madsen wrote:
The money quote in the Examiner article over at Drudge was not only were the GOP poll workers being replaced with Democrats, but Black Panthers too.
Of course we can always count on Holders DoJ not investigating or prosecuting this clear violation of constitutional & civil rights too.
mawskrat wrote:
witch docotr ? Raaaaacist !!!!
mawskrat wrote:
That must be where the Outsider gets his information…
@ Storagemanager:
Here we go!
Kirly wrote:
What we put up with to vote for love of country!
@ John Difool:
Great….so some frail old retiree has to tap a thug on the shoulder and say, “excuse me young man but you are sitting in my seat”
That’ll work
Rodan wrote:
Yes indeed. There are a lot of widowed elderly people & single young folks in these areas who they know will be intimidated by the presence of Black Panthers leering & sneering at them as soon as they walk up to a polling place.
It’s a feature, not a bug.
Even the just-about-as-far-left as you can get SPLC has the NBP listed as hate-group. That the Democrats tolerate these thugs speaks volumes.
looks like the shit is gonna hit the fan soon in the NYC area…Bloomberg and FEMA and the RC have all been a huge bust…a lot of people are getting very desperate and more cold is on the way…this disaster is going to double in magnitude due to inept govt…no fuel to escape the area, no heat with dropping temps, little food….this is going go medieval if something doesn’t happen damned fast
Several updates on the Ohio Early Voting numbers. It looks like early voting is up in McCain counties, down in Obama counties. Could be a trend.
The Early Voting Numbers were not correct though. They were dummy data that Gannett “accidentally” put up. Oh, well. No votes will b counted until the polls close.
@ John Difool:
The Democrats find them useful. They are like the SA, only black. A gang of thugs. If the Republicans had similar unsavory connections it’d be headline news every night until someone changed it.
@ John Difool:
Send in the Cavalry:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1947689725001/
Berlin is prepared to celebrate O.’s victory ! Champagne all over the city restaurants and hotels.
Scott Madsen wrote:
That’s the same exact polling location they were at in ’08. I noticed this time they don’t have batons or billy-clubs. Just made sure they were some really big guys & not some skinny punks this time.
Iron Fist wrote:
Over at HA they’re reporting some early returns are already showing Romney up 15+ among independents this go around. Obama won indy’s by a huge margin last time.
Lets keep our fingers crossed.
heysoos wrote:
There should have been seabees sent to Fort Dix last week to erect housing and convoys moving people out by the end of the polls closing today. Nero Fiddles…..makes you wonder what he is holding back resources for?
It is in Allah’s hands now.
I just got back from voting. I didn’t have to wait (we have a very good system here) but the turnout was heavy. LOTS of old people -- I’m 59, and I think I was the youngest person there.
My wife got there a little before the polls opened at 6 and there were 30 people already in line with at least that many filling in behind her. I asked one of the workers and she said she can’t remember when it’s been this heavy.
We’re an uncontested RED state (Kentucky) with nothing particularly of local interest and we’re coming out in droves. I don’t know what this means, but I hope it bodes well
Moe Katz wrote:
We were in Allah’s hands in 2008 and ever since. I’m kinda hoping for a Higher Power this time……..
Scott Madsen wrote:
Bloomberg is in shock…there is REAL work to be done and he’s riding the pines. exactly how BO leads…reacting to events instead of planning ahead
@ John Difool:
They were reporting on veterans groups willing to escort people and officials. I don’t know if they are organized to do so or were just blowing hot air.
@ MacDuff:
Heavy turnout in the Red areas of the Country could turn into a significant lead in the popular vote, for what that is worth. I’d be interested in hearing how the voting is going in Wisconsin. I am confident that we are going to win it, but I’d like some hard data to back up my confidence.
MacDuff wrote:
Over at AoS they’re saying lots of Co. voters being turned away from the polls after their names have been mysteriously vanished from the voter lists in their polling locations.
They are supposed to be informed they have the right to fill out a provisional ballot but no one is informing them of that.
Not gonna come out & start screaming “stolen election’ just yet, but it damn sure seems the Dems are trying their best early. Thats two potential swing states so far this shit is going on in.
Scott Madsen wrote:
Also connections with Mansour, Obama, and the Saudis plan to get puppets into high office.
Mars wrote:
As opposed to Muppets?
I can’t find anything new about the military/overseas ballots…well fuck those guys eh?
@ MacDuff:
The little old lady that babysits for me was all up and down Zeros ass a few weeks ago. She knew everthing fron Stanley Anns porno shoots with FMD to Fast and furious and all that lays in between.
She spends a lot of time on the net emailing to all of her friends. I hope there is large cohort of old folks just like her that have had nothing to do for the last four years but pay attention and judge current events by their still extant moral fiber and knowledge of the past
heysoos wrote:
Drudge has a story up saying thousands of absentee ballots for the military were shipped late & won’t get there on time.
Convenient, huh ?
@ heysoos:
I heard that thousands hadn[‘t gotten their ballots. The Democrats don’t want the Military to vote. Remember when GOre’s lawyers got the military vote tossed in Florida? That is the Democrats in Action.
@ Mars:
Yep, what a web they wove
Funny story for your perusal; I was at the health club yesterday and in the men’s locker room, there’s an area with chairs and a big TV set on a news channel or one of the business channels. While I was getting dressed, there were two old guys having a very loud and vocal political argument -- one for Romney, one for Obama. Everyone could hear it, and when each made a point, those in the locker room who agreed shouted “yeah!”. It was just so cool.
BTW, Romney clearly won the voice vote.
John Difool wrote:
it’s such a simple job and now it’s a fucked up mess twice in a row…I hate the feds
I’ve never seen such an hysterical media hype like this time with US-elections in Germany. Day in day out on tv nothing else as O. worship and how ugly, evil, greedy, stupid and what a religious fanatic Romney is. Even the more conservative channels like ZDF sind that song.
Guggi wrote:
Obama is a global cultural phenomenon.
@ Iron Fist:
@ Scott Madsen:
@ Guggi:
@ MacDuff:
Funny business in Philly!
Guggi wrote:
it’s the greatest dog and pony show in the world!
Guggi wrote:
All while Germany is importing real head-chopping, honor-killing Jihadi religious fanatics by the boatload. You’ve got to love European priorities. It is a damn fine thing that y’all don’t have a vote in this fight. I am hoping that we resoundingly dissappoint your media and so-called “intelligencia”.
Guggi wrote:
No offense to you, Guggi, but it seems that Germans, in particular, would nave learned the perils of cults of personality.
@ Iron Fist:
And our own.
@ Rodan:
The Republican poll watchers are back, but you can see where this is going. The Democrats have been telegraphing for some time that voter fraud was going to eb a major part of their campaign. If we win this, I want to see voter ID in every state.
Guggi wrote:
Well then, At the closing of the polls this evening, I hope they will all sing along:
Guggi wrote:
Present company excluded but I hope most of the German citizenry are sitting around tomorrow weeping into their beer steins
Rodan wrote:
He’s a cult leader not a responsible politician.
BAD NEWS
nothreat passed away this morning.
@ Rodan:
What happened to the “Recent Comments” thing on the sidebar?
The Dead Always Vote Democrat.
Iron Fist wrote:
Hopefully with police escort this time or nothing will stop the Demofascists from throwing them out again.
coldwarrior wrote:
Damn
Condolences and prayers
How come lost ballots, when found, are ALWAYS predominately Democrat?
coldwarrior wrote:
Oh jeez that’s awful news. May God give her eternal comfort & peace now. She will be missed.
@ Iron Fist:
That Mormon threat, Germans so fear!
///////////
father_of_10 wrote:
Because they’re manufactured by Democrats who add in enough fake Republican ballots to make it look convincing?
Iron Fist wrote:
There are a lot voices all over Europe that Europeans should have the right to vote in US-presidential election. I’m not kidding you.
coldwarrior wrote:
I am sad at hearing this.
@ coldwarrior:
Oh, damn. I am so sorry to hear that. She will be missed.
coldwarrior wrote:
Very very sad. She kept up a good fight and cheered others up as well
@ coldwarrior:
Damn, I haven’t been around for a long while. I remember her being ill and didn’t realize it had progressed. Prayers for her family today and Sunday.
@ Guggi:
We’d fight a war over that, and you would lose.
Guggi wrote:
Would Europeans vote for a black man here if they actually could vote, because we know they’d never vote for a black man there.
@ coldwarrior:
Damn, my condolences to her family.
@ John Difool:
As long as he was the candidate who they thought would do the most to neuter America, sure.
A reminder:
If you see or hear anything at your polling place that doesn’t seem right, record it if possible.
Call True The Vote at 855-444-6100 to report election fraud or voter intimidation.
MacDuff wrote:
no problem I’m not German.
coldwarrior wrote:
Truly sorry to hear that. She was a real live wire and I got a kick out of her. Rest in peace, Tina. We’ll miss you.
@ lobo91:
Yeah, the Europeans resent us for stopping them from participating in their favorite pasttime: killing other Europeans. I say have at it, and not a drop of American blood to pull them out of the fire the next time they step into it.
@ lobo91:
We turned off side comments so the blog doesn’t crash tonight when we comment on the election.
coldwarrior wrote:
OmG it was that bad ? Condolences to her family and you.
@ Iron Fist:
Hopefully the Euros kill the Muzzies. I can support that!
coldwarrior wrote:
Oh damn….she was a sweetheart, one of my favorites. She’s had a rough go of it, but I was so hoping she’d pull through. RIP, prayers and condolences to her family.
Guggi wrote:
You speak Austrian, right? : )
@ Iron Fist:
I agree.
@ Guggi:
I’ll miss her badly.
Rodan wrote:
Makes sense.
I thought it was a glitch.
Guggi wrote:
Me too.
John Difool wrote:
right
@ John Difool:
There are 577 French parliament seats. Approximately 8% of the population is black. Want to guess how many seats a black representative has? heh
Guggi wrote:
G’day, mate!
Oh, wait…
///
undiagnosed hemochromatosis (too much iron in the blood) caused cirrhosis of the liver caused liver failure caused death.
so next time you see the box for being a organ donor, make sure you check it. she died while on the transplant list.
Buckeye Abroad wrote:
None?
PaladinPhil wrote:
Me too.
@ coldwarrior:
She was mid 40′s? I think she was posting as recently as this weekend.
Buckeye Abroad wrote:
None. Not one European country has ever elected a minority to high office.
Well except Hitler if you count him, he was half jew but not sure if you can call that elected exactly.
Iron Fist wrote:
We tried our hand at that past-time too, Americans killing other Americans & decided we didn’t like it too much.
@ coldwarrior:
So true. Russia is looking after Russia’s interests. The job at hand is to convince Russia that their interests and America’s interests have more in common than they have at odds.
A rival does not necessarily have to be an enemy.
coldwarrior wrote:
Oh damn. My mom was recently diagnosed with that. Luckily it was caught in time.
John Difool wrote:
nonsense, Hitler was NOT half-Jew.
Unreal. If this isn’t illegal campaigning in a polling place i don’t know what is.
@ John Difool:
Part of that is due to the way they hold their legislative elections.
They don’t have single-member legislative districts like we do. You vote for a party, not a candidate. They divide up the seats proportionally based on the percentage of the vote each party gets, and assign seats to people off the party’s “list.”
Rodan wrote:
Bad actors the world over want to see a weakened US.
John Difool wrote:
painted especially for the election….bet me
Guggi wrote:
It was my understanding he had Jewish blood in him from a close relative.
John Difool wrote:
It’s only illegal if Republicans do it, silly.
Yesterday, some genius tried to keep a voter out of a polling place in Denver because she was wearing an MIT sweatshirt.
heysoos wrote:
Judging from the decorum it looks like a school to me….which would be par for the course for Philly.
heysoos wrote:
Probably paid for with stimulus money, too.
@ coldwarrior:
May she rest in peace.
As a member of the Gallup family (there are 44,000 of us) and a sometimes member of the Gallup Panel (about 1,500), let me add a bit. Someone said that pollsters do not select party. This is true if the pollsters are polling for party membership. Of course it is also true if the party is irrelevant (many polls are not about politics , per se). But if the polls are trying to determine who will win an election they do poll for party. However Gallup does not alter the number of respondents to compensate for party membership, so if more Democrats respond it is simply reported. Gallup then separately reports on party enthusiasm. When Gallup polls one of us, it already knows a great deal about each of its members. We are expected to provide honest answers and are polled about everything from foreign affairs to toothpaste.
Secondly, it is generally recognized that in cold calls, Liberals seem far more interested in taking polls. No one knows why in spite of various theories. Age and employment may be the determining factor.Conservatives tend to be between 40-60 and actively employed. And the huge fly in the ointment is that one third of households now only have cell phones. And these are disproportionately liberal. Hugely so. And they are not reached by pollsters. In other words, the country may be much farther left than anyone realizes. And far more immature. Obama type immature. But this mass has as yet not shown up at the polls. But they may soon. They pay rent (that is what is meant by ‘household’) and pay bills already.
But in Germany Cem Özdemir (Turkish born) is leader of the Green Party and in Austria there are also Arabs and Turks in the SPÖ (Social Democrats) in leading positions.
lobo91 wrote:
i had a Romney/Ryan sticker & a George Allen sticker prominently displayed on my sweatshirt when I voted at my polling location & not a single word was said or a single eye was batted.
And I live in a minority heavy district.
@ Storagemanager:
All muslims hate non-muslims, and all muslims not of their own sect. But they will forge temporary alliances with infidels if they deem it to be to their advantage. Iran plays footsie with the Russians because they think it gains them advantage over Israel, America, and the Sunnis. Russia plays footsie with Iran, because they think it gives them influence in the region.
It is the Great Game. Read up on it.
John Difool wrote:
No that’s a rumor sprayed out by opponents in the own NSDAP. Not a shred of thruth in it.
coldwarrior wrote:
Sorry to hear that, a nice person.
@ John Difool:
Not true. In Finland we have had minorities in parliament and government. Also one of the minorities is overrepresented in government (Finland’s Swedish), since they have been in every government for decades (not sure if entire Finnish history).
Guggi wrote:
I think what we’re talking about here isn’t the run of the mill parliamentary type positions but actual positions of power in high government like a president or prime minister.
Can’t see that happening in Europe anytime soon even though they are oh so more enlightened & tolerant than us assbackwards Americans.
@ coldwarrior:
My heart is heavy with this news. Tina, you will be missed me. You were a good friend.
Guggi wrote:
Well I stand corrected. Just an urban legend then.
Guggi wrote:
However, he had some genetic haplotypes common to the Middle East and Arab North Africa. He was no pure Aryan.
Moe Katz wrote:
Dark hair, dark eyes, he didn’t have the traits of your average German or Northern European thats for sure.
John Difool wrote:
Here’s the polling place the next precinct over.
@ huckfunn:
Can anyone see that picture? It was there a minute ago.
@ huckfunn</b
I can still see it.
@ huckfunn:
I see it just fine.
@ coldwarrior:
Horrible news.
May she find peace & comfort with the Lord.
Her pain & suffering is over, but sadly so
is her life.
Sorry to hear about NoThreat2U. That’s a damned shame. RIP.
huckfunn wrote:
Yes
@ coldwarrior:
I have a heavy heart hearing that.
@ John Difool:
I always thought that was interesting.
Did they not have mirrors in Nazi Germany?
//
coldwarrior wrote:
So sorry to hear this.
@ John Difool:
DNA proved Hitler had Jewish blood. Most Central and East Europeans have Jewish in them somewhere.
@ John Difool:
@ Purre:
@ lobo91:
Every other time I refresh the page, it’s not there. Weird.
@ coldwarrior:
I’m stunned and saddebed.
@ coldwarrior:
I’m stunned.
Moe Katz wrote:
That’s true. Those haplotypes are VERY common in Central Europe, by the way.
People migrated and traveled a great deal in Roman times.
John Difool wrote:
blue eyes, Hitler’s famous blue eyes !!!! “The “Führer” looked at me with his wonderful blue eyes” this made people crazy. His charismatic blue eyes.
huckfunn wrote:
M turned it off so we don’t get hosed tonight.
@ Rodan:
I’d recommend temporarily killing video embeds for tonight too.
/lurk
@ coldwarrior:
Very sad to hear that.
CynicalConservative wrote:
Not a bad idea
@ Guggi:
See my #243. Hitler had some North African and Jewish blood. It doesn’t make him Jewish, but he did have some ancestry. You know Central and Eastern Europeans have intermarriage with Jews for centuries. SO Hitler having Jewish in him is not a big deal. I bet most people in that part of the world is given a DNA test will show some Jewish DNA. That does not mean Hitler ever considered himself Jewish.
Guggi wrote:
It’s only fair, we had Sinatra.
Guggi wrote:
Lol, I guess in a b/w photo, blue is black. However, Bashir Assad has blue eyes too, jus’ sayin’.
@ Rodan:
I was talking about the picture in #223. But I’m glad the sidebar comments are off. During the debates it only took about 1/2 hour before the channel was stuffed.
@ John Difool:
See my 243, it’s not an urban legend.
@ Iron Fist:
Initial anecdotal reports indicate that several voting places around Dane County ( that’s Madison & surrounding communities) are that there are lines — except for the precincts in the University neighborhood (very little participation — I think several students are still sleeping off the weekend bender, in which case, I don’t want them at a poll). In my case, I had a line curling around the Fellowship Hall @ the Lutheran Church, all the way to the exit.
@ huckfunn:
M is trying to optimize.
Guggi wrote:
…and his hair was dark blonde not dark.
Sounds like a typical Obama voter, actually…
//
@ 1389AD:
The Ottoman Turks must have contributed too, especially as many of them came from places other than Anatolia itself….
@ coldwarrior: that is sad news. She will be missed.
@ John Difool:
my Grandma of Lebanese roots had hazel eyes. People from the Mediterranean, Southern, Central and Eastern Europe are mixed.
Rodan wrote:
My wife is of Syrian ancestry & she has dark hair & blue eyes.
@ Moe Katz:
Many East and Central Europeans intermarried with Jews through the centuries. Shake the family tree in that part of Europe and a Jew will pop out.
@ John Difool:
Just because someone has some blood of an ethnic group in them, that doesn’t mean they identify with that group.
Regarding the polls, the thing to remember is that GOP support and enthusiasm is way up over what it was in 2008, and Dem support is way down. Many that voted for Obama in ’08 simply won’t bother to show up at the polls, like they haven’t bothered showing up at his campaign events. They know they are worse off, four years later.
Know that the MSM will do its damndest to suppress the GOP vote by issuing false reports of a Dem blowout. They are Tokyo Rose for the 21st Century. Ignore them.
Speaking as Canadian, I watch from the sidelines, but I know I would rather have a strong America on my border than a weak one.
So listen, all of yinz. Get out there and vote for Romney, and vote for all the down-ticket GOP, too, so that NT2U’s children can have a strong and prosperous America in which to grow up. Do it for her. And don’t forget to drag out as many other people as you can to do the same!
Rodan wrote:
True. But there’s not definite identification of Hitler as having Jewish ancestry, that’s just an inference. He carries a haplotype that is the most common in Jews, so it’s a reasonable bet ….
Rodan wrote:
I don’t think the SS made such distinctions…
Too Early ? Kate Smith. You know the song.
nothreat
kind
nice
good
All Great Sprits know and accept those over there on the other side.
rip
@ Moe Katz:
Right and agree with what you said.
@ Rodan:
I, personally, trace my ancestry to a small bipedal ape in East Africa.
Rodan wrote:
True, her family were Assyrian Christians who left Syria for Armenia to escape muslim persecution but then later were forced out during the genocide by the Turks. My point was that in the ME brown eyes or black eyes are predominant & those are also dominant traits. It’s the exception, not always the rule.
Anyone for an evolution thread?
//
@ Moe Katz:
I trace mine to refuges from another planet who crashed landed on Earth 10,000 years ago!
RIP to nothreat2u, she was an interesting and entertaining poster. Wish I could say I knew her in the brick and mortar world, but that goes for a lot of folks. She will be missed.
Moe Katz wrote:
I can do a Evolution vs. Creationist vs. Ancient Aliens thread!
@ lobo91:
Lobo, how’s Leia doing, how’s her appetite?
The blog has gotten sloooooooooooooooow for me.
Getting a 500 internal server error most of the time I refresh now.
Moe Katz wrote:
Still won’t eat anything but scrambled eggs.
@ Rodan:
LOL! Go for it!
@ lobo91:
At least she’s eating that. I guess you’ll be taking her back to the vet before long….
Moe Katz wrote:
That’s interesting. I personally trace mine back to God.
e long….@ father_of_10:
Would that be on your mother’s side of the family or on your dad’s?
Moe Katz wrote:
Most likely.
New thread, BTW
@ lobo91:
Thanks.
coldwarrior wrote:
May God receive her into His glory.
coldwarrior wrote:
I am so sorry to hear this…may God Shine His everlasting Light on her and may her family be comforted by Him. This is so so sad!
Guggi wrote:
So will I…I’m so sorry I’ll miss Tina so much here.
In Memory Of NoThreat2U and she loved this song.
lobo91 wrote:
Correct
Kirly wrote:
Chewing gum online?!?
I hope he brought enough for everyone.