The vast majority of conflicts in the Middle East have little or nothing to do with the Palestinians or Israel. I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard or read some “expert” claiming that “Palestine is the key to peace”. There is no linkage between Israel-Palestine and peace throughout the Middle East. If Arafat had signed an agreement in 2000 and actually lived up to it, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, et al would still continue to exist and Iran would still be trying to get a nuclear weapon.
by Jeffrey Goldberg
Among many Middle East analysts, particularly those of the so-called “realist” school of foreign policy thought, “linkage” is a holy doctrine. It holds that peaceful compromise between Israel and the Palestinians will lead to a generally placid Middle East. But it’s a false notion. One of its more famous advocates is Chuck Hagel, President Obama’s nominee to be secretary of defense.
In my Bloomberg View column, I look at Hagel’s views, and try to understand how linkage became such a dominant doctrine when it is so provably false:
“The core of all challenges in the Middle East remains the underlying Arab-Israeli conflict,” Hagel said in 2006. “The failure to address this root cause will allow Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorists to continue to sustain popular Muslim and Arab support — a dynamic that continues to undermine America’s standing in the region and the Governments of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and others, whose support is critical for any Middle East resolution.”As Martin Kramer wrote: “The vocabulary here — ‘core,’ ‘root cause,’ ‘underlying’ — is taken from the standard linkage lexicon, which elevates the Arab-Israeli or Palestinian-Israeli conflict to a preeminent status.” [.........]
In his 2008 book, “America: Our Next Chapter,” Hagel wrote that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “cannot be looked at in isolation. Like a stone dropped into a placid lake, its ripples extend out farther and farther. Egypt, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon feel the effects most noticeably. Farther still, Afghanistan and Pakistan; anything that impacts their political stability also affects the two emerging economic superpowers, India and China.”
I would love to hear Hagel’s views on this subject today, because his theory of linkage — and his belief that a Middle East freed from the Israeli-Palestinian dispute would be a “placid lake” — has been utterly discredited by events. [........] But these same terrorists are unalterably opposed to a compromise that would allow two states, Israel and Palestine, to live side by side, because they are opposed to the very existence of Israel. They try to subvert the peace process because they fear it will legitimize the existence of a country they hate.
[........]The past two years have proved the theory of linkage to be comprehensively false anyway.
Come with me on a quick tour of the greater Middle East. The Syrian civil war? Unrelated to the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. The slow disintegration of Yemen? Unrelated. Chaos and violence in Libya? Unrelated. Chaos and fundamentalism in Egypt? The creation of a Palestinian state on the West Bank would not have stopped the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, nor would it have stopped the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Terrorism in Algeria? Unrelated. The Iranian nuclear program? How would the creation of a Palestinian state have persuaded the Iranian regime to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons? Someone please explain. Sunni-Shiite civil war in Iraq? The unrest in Bahrain? Pakistani havens for al-Qaeda affiliates? All unrelated.
Read the rest -Is Palestinian-Israeli peace the key to happiness in the Middle East ?
Tags: Chuck Hagel, Jeffrey Goldberg
“Middle Eat”?
Here’s a very good companion piece in which Michael Ledeen asks a question that’s been asked quite a bit around here , without mentioning Israel or the Palestinians even once.
And concludes:
Good piece.
Mike C. wrote:
Lunch.
Much like the urge quell violence by banning guns, explaining away Middle Eastern problems in the context of “Arab vs. Jew” is a simplistic solution to a far more complex problem.
MacDuff wrote:
Sounds more like a hobbit thing for in between formal meals…
There’s a new very, very scary development — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled the Qaher F313 at a Tehran hangar last week and called it “one of the most advanced” aircraft in the world. The new Iranian jet incorporates stealth technology, flies faster, and is more maneuverable than the best US, Russian, or Chinese jet fighter craft.
I’m getting goosebumps just thinking about it!
@ Fritz Katz:
Yeah, I can tell that’s a real high-tech fighter there.
Pics here and here
20000 ????
More Iranian super weapons. Spooky!
@ Fritz Katz:
I have one of those… oh yeah, built it last week. Think it was a Tamiya kit… maybe Hasegawa… Scale is about right…
Mike C. wrote:
Thanks grammar professor, it has been fixed.
Guggi wrote:
Again, fixed. Big effing deal, I had a Rodan day.
Fritz Katz wrote:
The Iranians are boasters and you cannot take every thing that they boast about as absolute.
@ Fritz Katz:
@ mfhorn:
Don’t laugh, these guys are geniuses, they sent a friggin’ monkey into space! Fear the MuzzTech!
Speranza wrote:
I wonder how long it took our techies to run that pic through a computer sim to see if it was even airworthy? Hell, for all we know it could be plywood sheathed in sheet aluminum.
Actually, I kinda liked “Middle Eat.”
@ MacDuff:
Nah. Fibreglass. Or maybe spackled paper mache…
Speranza wrote:
Guggi wrote:
I am entitled to have made a mistake in forgetting to run spell check at night. I don’t get paid for this and I actually do have a job.
Someone tell me if I am wrong when I say the biggest problem in the Middle East is fucking IRAN! Oh by the way, back it up with some kind of proof!
MacDuff wrote:
That turned out to be a bogus story as well. Now if you call Ahmadinejad a monkey you are a raaaaacist.
The biggest problem in the Middle East is Islam.
MacDuff wrote:
Why would they? Just let the Idiots look as stupid as they are!!!
Mike C. wrote:
Da Muzz gots fiberglas? Do tell!
MacDuff wrote:
It looks like a training jet. I laugh that they used the “F” prefix for “Fighter” something only the US does.
Speranza wrote:
UH, no argument there but, Iran is the mover. Then on a Political and Financial level Saudi Arabia would be next in the threat chain!
Good morning all. Yesterday CNN & MSNBC covered Dorners Manifesto
the way they wanted to.
The said explicitly that he criticised a wide range of people.
Wrong, he praised Liberals & bashed Conservatives.
It is not the fault of any Lib that the guy did what he did, but
they will never admit that Sarah Palin is not responsible for the
shooting of Gabbie Giffords.
Speranza wrote:
Of course you are, especially when they are funny
AZOlddog wrote:
Iran is to the ME what Germany was to Europe in the late 30s, they’re actually becoming what Iraq aspired to be.
Speranza wrote:
Fuggetaboudit. To err is human and, overall, this is a pretty damned good site with quality posters and commenters and you should count yourself among the top of each.
@ MacDuff:
I think its more complicated than that. The Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda have thrown a monkey wrench into Iran’s plan of domination. So maybe Iran are the Nazis and the MB are the Communists.
@ AZOlddog:
I think The Muslim Brotherhood/al-Qaeda which is funded by Saudi Arabia is the biggest danger. Iran has lost much clout and are hated now.
Speranza wrote:
Yeah that’s the 800 lib gorilla in the room. Israel could convert to Catholicism and the Muzzies would still hate them.
@ RIX:
You can make it through that crap? “You’re a better man than I am, Gunga Din!”
Rodan wrote:
Yeah, I like your expansion.
@ MacDuff:
Hey Mac, how you doing?
Or, sup wit choo?
@ MacDuff:
Forgot to say Top of the Morning to ya!
Yeah I do think the 30′s analogy holds. Syria could be a mirror image of the Spanish civil war.
Another fake technological achievement by an Iran.
Aviation experts say new Iranian stealth jet is a pathetic hoax that can’t even fly
Iran unveils new indigenous stealth fighter “Qaher 313″. And here’s a detailed analysis.
funny
Rodan wrote:
Hell, Israel could convert to Islam and they’d turn on each other (much like they already do). Islam is about hate and conflict; it’s what animates them. Therein lies the inherent danger to the world that is Islam.
Watching these hearings with Hillary, Hagel, Brennan, Panetta & Dempsey I
see why we are in trouble.
The quality of leadership is woeful.
@ RIX:
@ Rodan:
Top o’ da morning to both of ya laddies!
RIX wrote:
A more repulsive group of people in high positions of foreign/defense power in America has never before been seen.
Rodan wrote:
Mostly by the Gulf states
MacDuff wrote:
That’s why the term “Radical Islam” is the ultimate redundancy.
I concur.
MacDuff wrote:
Much appreciated sir and you are one of the more interesting commenters.
Guggi wrote:
Quite correct including “moderate” Qatar.
MacDuff wrote:
As a public service to those of you who aren’t proficient in Anglo/Celtibonics, that means “Good morning to both of you fine young men”
@ MacDuff:
That is the truth!
It is really absurd when terrorists are referred to as “Misunderstanders’” of
the Koran.
They understand completely.
Speranza wrote:
Wouldn’t a better quote be:
You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy
@ Guggi:
Yup, I stand corrected. That peace loving moderate nation known as Qatar and the UAE.
I’m fluent.
@ Speranza:
What a wonderful place!
RIX wrote:
People who say that type of shit (Bush Administration, Obama Administration) don’t realize how condescending they sound.
Rodan wrote:
If you say so but I will not visit.
MikeA wrote:
and they are dumb -- starting with big ears in the oval office.
Video -- Chambliss questions Brennan on 1998 operation against bin Laden
Speranza wrote:
“Big Ears and the Oval Office”- helluva great name for a rock band!
@ Speranza:
The people are tolerant and peace loving!
RIX wrote:
Aye, that you are laddie!
Were we able to contain them the various branches of Islam would do more harm to each other than we could before the TranziProgs would force us to stop.
The problem with stopping the Muzzies is the Tranzis! They are willing to bow Five Times a Day to reach their New World Order because they believe the Muzzies would let them keep it!
And they proclaim every Day how Stupid WE ARE?
The World IS Upside Down!
Speranza wrote:
Thank you for your kind sentiments…..
hmmm….nice fighter jet. i have a pilots license (not current too much $$$ to stay rated) and took an aerodynamics class as a science/math elective in college (it was the us navy aerodynamics course) . the rough shape of the fighter is ok, maybe. but those comic book turned down wing ends are almost laughable. those will increase drag immensely and most likely tear the wing off at speed, forget about supersonic. than canopy will be a huge radar hit as well. and are those canards i see forward of the main wing! they have been reading too many comic books. its a stylin aircraft! for a 12 yo boy.
After 9-11 Bush wanted no reprisals on Muslims in America, I get that.
But he spread disinformation.
Hell, half of the country thinks that Islam means peace.
MacDuff wrote:
“Listen Up Son, get yer behind outta these Hills before you get Hurt! If you stop to sniff the Wind it will be the last thing you do!”
Latter Day Ulster-Scott in the Blue Ridge Hills!!!!
Religion Of Peace My Ass! ROPMA
Well, the storm ducked just south and east of us here in the lower Shenandoah valley, took a left, and is just now starting to hammer on the NE. Better them than me. We have a decorative dusting of snow; nothing more. And it seems to be melting off.
@ AZOlddog:
Hey when you get a chance, check out Rand Paul’s foreign policy speech. He actually names the enemy and wants Cold War style containment.
Now about the New World Order, too many people dismiss that but it is right in front of people’s faces.
@ RIX:
Then Bush decided we had to spread Democracy in the Islamic world. How has that worked out?
Speranza wrote:
Yeah, “Radical Islam” is a lot like “AntiSemitic Nazis”. It’s a term that was coined as a verbal shelter from the truth that is too terrifying for some to face; that what we are amidst is not a skirmish, but an all-out war of civilizations in which our enemy numbers 1,000,000,000 and literally worship death.
@ Rodan:
Saw that and I wonder why the MBM have not started trying to tear him down? Are they planning on waiting and trying to tie him to his Father?
That would fit their level of attack!
MacDuff wrote:
It is rather apocalyptic to contemplate.
Rodan wrote:
Not.Very.Well.
!
Egyptian TV Cleric Calls for Killing Liberals…
MikeA wrote:
Outside of the UN.
Mike C. wrote:
Have you ever (I am sure you have) driven on the Old Valley Turnpike? You pass one Civil War marker after another.
Bush made the calculation that all people want freedom & Democracy.
He was wrong, pious muslims think that freedom is the work of Satan.
An Islamic Republic is Sharia.
mskelly wrote:
That Arab Spring is just one continuous breath of fresh air. /
@ AZOlddog:
They already have. Some on the “Right” are calling him an anti-Semite for disagreeing with Neocons. I never knew John McCain, Ms. Lindsey and Dick Cheney were Jewish!
Due to a very Libertarian College Education I was forced to read the Bible and the Koran!
Anyone who actually READS the Islamic “Holy Book” cannot believe in any iota the Islam is a “Religion of Peace”!
Their intent is to control the Word in the name of Mohammad (PBUH)!
Actually read it people!
RIX wrote:
There is no separation of Mosque and State in Islam. Islam is a way of life and can never be confined to the Mosque of even your home.
AZOlddog wrote:
It is an unreadable book (the Koran).
@ mskelly:
@ Speranza:
I do not believe they mean Liberal in our sense.
@ MacDuff:
We need to channel the spirit of Charles Martel.
He was not parlyzed by Moral Relativism and saved Western Civilization.
@ AZOlddog:
Apologists for Islam like to point out that the Bible has some strange things,
not just the Koran.
The difference is that we know that the Bible has a lot of metaphors &
allegories.
On the other hand Muslims believe that the Koran is the literal word of God.
So all of the talk about subjecting & killing the Infidel is taken seriously.
@ AZOlddog:
I did read it. It reads like the rantings of a mad man.
U.S ambassador reveals France paid $17MILLION ransom for hostages held by Al Qaeda in desert oil plant
Speranza wrote:
Yes. IIRC, that’s essentially Route 11. It’s about 3.5 miles from me. After the first battle of Harper’s Ferry, Confederate troops hauled 11 or so locomotives down it to the nearest railhead. “Stonenwall” Jackson had his HQ here in out little town several times. We’re up to our everlovins in Civil War stuff here. And one George Washington had his office here (still standing) when he worked as a surveyor for Lord Fairfax.
The wife is related to both George and Captain Danial Morgan (“Morgan’s Men.”)
Speranza wrote:
16.4 TRILLION UPDINGS!
Speranza wrote:
It’s an even worse read than Mein Kampf. I managed to endure about 1/3 of it and realized…this is Pure EVIL!
I think that the Koran can be summarized.
1. STFU!
2. Mohammad is the perfect man.
3. Kneel down with your ass in the air, banging you head on the floor five times a day.
4. your goat is more attractive and valuable than your wife.
5. At least one of your kids has to blow himself up for Allah.
6. Obama is groovy.
@ Rodan:
Oh I know that. I just thought the title would make lurking lizards shit in their pants
@ mskelly:
They would make excuses. Charles would defend this statement.
Speranza wrote:
I disagree Sir! It is very readable if you are willing to suspend your belief in reality for the duration of your reading!
Rodan wrote:
“Liberal” in their sense is secular Marxist/Socialist. See PFLP.
AZOlddog wrote:
The translations from Classical Arabic are incomprehensible.
Speranza wrote:
Indeed it is. I grew up thinking that Armageddon would inevitably rain down in the form of a nuclear exchange between the Soviets and us; I couldn’t have imagined that the Soviet Union would perish “not with a bang, but with a whimper”. That’s why I hesitate in labeling anything as “inevitable”. That said, Muslims account for nearly 1/4 of the world’s population, they’re culturally backward, increasingly militant and murderous and are keen on developing the most potent weapons in the history of man. No, Islam is not monolithic, but the phrase “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” springs from the Arab world.
It may not be the Apocalypse, but it sure has that smell………
Macker wrote:
I tried reading it sometime in the late 1970′s and gave up.
@ Speranza:
Yeah I think it means Arab Nationalists or the few who would be considered Libertarians in our sense. You know Islamism is very evil when Arab Nationalists have become the good guys.
@ MacDuff:
It needs to be first stopped and then rolled back. However while the Soviet Union imploded due to economics, Islam has nothing to do with economics.
Rodan wrote:
The perfect example is Syria, a secular regime being confronted by Islamists and yet the secular regime is a murderous puppet of a theocratic regime in Tehran.
Speranza wrote:
I would claim that those Translation are reprehensible rather than unreadable. Upstream Rix summed up the Koran fairly well in Modern Terms!
@ Speranza:
Islam has been stopped before and will be stopped again. My gut instinct tells me it will not be the US crushing them. It will be China.
Rodan wrote:
I had hoped that Russia would but Putin plays the double game.
@ Speranza:
I forced myself to read it twice- once in their fraked up order (longest verse to shortest verse) and once in chronological order.
Both were bullshit.
@ Speranza:
The only reason I finished reading the Damn Thing was 3 Credit Hours hanging in the Wind. Not to mention that was my LAST damn Humanities Elective!
It was almost as if they had Mercy on us after that stupid course!
RIX wrote:
Good analogy, RIX. Western civilization is geopolitically and economically in disarray and retreat, even as we pump trillions into the coffers of our enemies. It’s a “perfect storm” that does not favor our side.
@ Speranza:
Putin is very anti-Muslim Brotherhood. He’s just using Assad and Iran to bleed them. MB leader Qadawari have declared Russia their #1 enemy of Islam.
The Russians are another candidate in crushing Islam. But they are just concerned with their turf. That’s why my money is on the Chinese.
@ MacDuff:
That is becasue the Western Elites have bought into Globalism.
Rodan wrote:
I don’t care for Putin’s arming Iran.
AZOlddog wrote:
A waste of tuition studying that book.
@ Rodan:
I remember when that Soviet pilot defected to Japan in what was supposed to be the best fighter in the galaxy (late 70′s or early 80′s). The Superfly Foxbutt Jet of Death. They took it apart and the technology was about 1 generation beyond 2x4′s and concrete blocks. Complete joke when compared with an F15.
@ Speranza:
Russia only sells small arms to Iran. They cancelled the bigger weapon systems like SA-300 back in 08/09. The Russians sell to anyone. They are close to an agreement with Colombia on SU-35s.
The US arms Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, UAE Libyan al-Qaeda and Syrian al-Qaeda.
How are we any better?
@ huckfunn:
Yes, the Soviets exaggerated their tech achievements. Didn’t they base the movie Firefox on that incident?
@ Rodan:
I think so. In about the same time period, the Israelis were suveiling the Golan Heights area with an unarmed F-4. The Syrians sent up 5 Foxbutts and fired on the F-4. The Israelis launched one F-15 that subsequently shot down all 5 Syrian planes in about 15 minutes.
Don’t tell Dorian, but California Democrats Introduce Bill To Confiscate Every “Assault” Weapon In The State From Their Law-Abiding Owners…
MacDuff wrote:
There’s only one way we could quell violence in the Middle East — BAN THE KORAN. How’s that for a simplistic solution?
@ huckfunn:
When Israel intervened in Lebanon Civil War in 82 to help the Maronites, the Israelis shot down 70 Syrian Migs and lost none. That is why The Arabs no longer try to get air parity with Israel. Instead they have invested in Missiles.
Rodan wrote:
And you bet that the Israelis have a bullseye on every launch site.
@ huckfunn:
Israel has built up their Missie/Rocket forces as well.
Israel has used a mere fraction of the firepower/weapons they have available on Hamas and Hezbollah.
huckfunn wrote:
Senator Diane Feinstein of California is a huge supporter of disarming California and all other Americans. Btw -- a new thread is up.
Obama is following the old “Never let a crisis go to waste” philosophy regarding firearms.
Hard tom defeat an enemy that you do not recognize as the enemy.
Too many of our leaders sell the idea that these are jus folks, just like us.
All Muslims don’t want to subjugate and /or kill us.
But let’s say half, that’s half of billion people.
The MIG’s were fantastic. The USAF couldn’t fight them until Israel delivered them two MIG 19 and one MIG 21. The secret trainingsprogram lastet till the late 1990′s.
Guggi wrote:
MIG’s were overrated. Mirages were superior.
There are tweets like this all over the place. Race relations are so cool in
the Age of Obama./
RIX wrote:
Race relations have gotten worse under The One.