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The math just does not add up

by Phantom Ace ( 166 Comments › )
Filed under Democratic Party, Elections 2016, Fascism, Hillary Clinton, Marxism, Nazism, Progressives, Republican Party, RINOcracy, Socialism, Tranzis at April 21st, 2016 - 8:00 am

One of the biggest myths of the 2012 election is that there were anywhere between 5 million and 65 million  potential Republican voters who did not show up. This was a myth perpetrated by Fox News, Talk Radio, Breitbart News and conservative websites. This tale was perpetrated  to make Republican voters feel good about themselves. Rather than be honest and admit the GOP has become a rural only party at the Presidential level, that needs to expand into suburban and urban areas. Instead it is feel good rhetoric about that people wanting free stuff or how losing is virtuous.

The following article debunks the missing voters lies and lays out the bare truth. The problem is not missing voters, it is that at the Presidential level, the Republican party has no appeal.

 

Give credit where credit is due. Donald Trump is basking in another big victory today. And there may never have been a campaign that bases so much of its reason for existence on “winning.” Yet, consider that even as Trump wins a landslide victory among Republican primary voters in New York, his polling numbers for November continue to plummet. According to the RealClearPolitics average of the latest polls, Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton — perhaps the worst Democratic candidate since George McGovern — by more than 9 percentage points. His net favorability rating is now just above 40 percent. That’s not exactly the stuff of “winning.”

To the degree that Trump has a strategy — a debatable point — it appears to be to appeal to disaffected white working-class voters, the oft-discussed “Reagan Democrats.” Trump hopes that by getting these nominally Democratic voters to cross over in November, he can expand the electoral map into the Midwest and other traditionally blue areas. In addition, Trump hopes to attract the 4 to 5 million “missing” conservatives who supposedly abandoned Mitt Romney in 2012. Unfortunately, as with so much about the Trump campaign, the numbers don’t actually add up.

Start with those missing conservative voters. It has become something of an article of faith on the right that as many as 5 million conservatives, disappointed with the moderate Mitt Romney, stayed home in 2012, costing Republicans the election. And on election night it certainly appeared that way, as Romney’s vote totals ran some 4 million behind those of previous nominees. And to be fair, it’s not only Donald Trump who believes this: Ted Cruz has also based much of his fall election strategy on this theory. But, as Sean Trende, perhaps the nation’s foremost voter analyst, has pointed out, that first look was misleading, resulting from slow vote counting in a number of traditionally Republican areas. Once all the votes were counted, Romney received 60.9 million votes, compared to 59.9 million for John McCain in 2008, and 60.7 million for George W. Bush in 2004. Moreover, exit polls showed that Romney performed roughly as well as both Bush and McCain among key Republican voter constituencies such as men, whites, evangelicals, and self-identified conservatives.

[….]

To begin with, actual Reagan Democrats — that is, the blue-collar Democrats who helped provide Reagan with his landslide victories in 1980 and 1984 — are mostly gone. If the average Reagan Democrat was 40 in 1980, the median voting age that year, he would be 76 today. Given the short life expectancies for white non-college-educated working-class men, a lot of those Reagan voters are not with us today.

[….]

In 1980, for example, even with all those Reagan Democrats, Ronald Reagan carried white voters by 10 percentage points. Mitt Romney actually won white voters by double that figure — 20 percentage points — but he still lost. That’s because whites’ share of the total vote fell from 90 percent in 1980 to around 76 percent in 2012. Even if Trump is able to push the white vote up by 2 or 3 points — something that he has shown that he is able to do in some primaries — he would still fall short in November. We live in a different demographic universe from the one we inhabited in 1980. And, while the absence of Barack Obama from the ticket could hurt minority turnout in some areas, the widespread antipathy for Trump among minorities would likely offset any falloff in the black or Latino vote.

[….]

Furthermore, all of this analysis presumes that Trump is able to hold traditional Republican votes, but that looks increasingly unlikely. Polls show that as many as 38 percent of Republican primary voters say they could not see themselves supporting Trump in November. One recent poll showed the Libertarian candidate — former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson — drawing 11 percent of the vote in a hypothetical three-way match-up with Trump and Clinton, even though he is virtually unknown outside his home state. Trump fares especially poorly with Republican women, with polls showing as many as 47 percent saying they cannot see themselves supporting the New York billionaire. Of course, many Republican voters will likely come home as November draws closer and they face the prospect of a President Hillary. But, given the demographic hill that Trump already has to climb, any loss of Republican support will pretty much doom his bid.

With Trump’s takeover of the Republican party almost complete and it’s transformation from a Center-Right to a Leftist-Populist party, many traditional Republicans are heading to the exits. The beneficiary is the Libertarian party, whose ranks are growing.

According to a recent Gallup poll and a report from Ballot Access News, the libertarian movement is not only gaining in popularity but is adding new members to the Libertarian Party. In fact, recent data shows that the it’s becoming the fastest growing party in the United States.

According to Cato‘s David Boaz, the number of people who identify as libertarian is increasing in the US according to the Gallup Poll’s 2015 survey. The results show that“27 percent of respondents can be characterized as libertarians, the highest number they have ever found,” as more people are identifying as libertarian than conservative, liberal or populist.

According to the March 1, 2016 Ballot Access News publication, Democrat Party registrations declined between Oct. 2014 and Feb. 2016. The same occurred among Republicans, Independents, The Green and Constitution Party.  The only party that gained registrations is the Libertarian Party (See chart below on page 3. The chart shows the states in which people register by party).

Austin Peterson who is running for the Libertarian party has adopted many traditional Republican stances, like being pro life.

The defection of Republicans to the Libertarians will come back and bite the GOP in November. I wonder what excuse Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Sean Hannity, Breitbart and other outlets will have when the GOP loses 3 elections in a row?

 

 

 

 

 

There is a 3rd Option

by Phantom Ace ( 332 Comments › )
Filed under Censorship, Democratic Party, Elections 2016, Fascism, Hillary Clinton, Marxism, Politics, Progressives, Republican Party, Socialism, Tranzis at March 29th, 2016 - 11:35 am

With the assistance of charlatans of the the alleged conservative media, America’s version of Hugo Chavez is set to win the nomination of the Reactionary-Socialist Republican party. On the other side, The femail version of Mao Zedong is set to win the nomination of the Neo-Marxist Democrat party. This is a terrible choice for those who believe in economic liberty, personal liberty and social tolerance.

Both parties with assistance from their respective media have been hijacked by radicals and reactionaries who envision a Fascist Socialist police state. The Democrats have been taken over social justice warriors who blame whites and Christians for everything wrong in the world. They sympathize with our Islamic adversaries and view Western Civilization as a blot on humanity. On the other side, the Republicans have been taken over by reactionary losers who rather than adapt to modern times pine for the 1950’s. They blame all of America’s ills on racial/ethnic minorities and  urban upscale whites. Both parties preach division and hatred of the “other.” A tactic totalitarian movements have used throughout history use to gain power, starting withe the Jacobins of revolutionary France..

Missing in this victimology mindset present in both parties is personal responsibility. It’s all about blaming others for your personal failings in life. Both parties preach a utopia where the victims will be in charge and those who are viewed as the cause of their ills will be treated as 2nd class citizens at best or even worse. Rather than address real issues, both parties use Soviet/Nazi style propaganda to keep their respective voters in state of anger. This sad state of affairs leaves Americans in both parties of good will with nowhere to go. Many feel they have to choose the lesser of 2 Totalitarian Progressive evils. New polling data reveals a new choice is emerging for those of us that just want to live our lives and do not have animosity with others.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is now polling at 11%. Republicans disgusted by the American Chavez and Democrats repulsed by the female Mao are seriously looking at the Libertarian party as an alternative.

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson would still be well behind the two major party candidates, but if a poll showed the Libertarian Party hopeful would be in the double digits against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

That’s according to a Monmouth University poll of registered voters released last week.

The poll shows that Clinton would get 42 percent, Trump 34 percent and Johnson 11 percent. Clinton is the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Johnson is one of 16 candidates—so far—seeking the Libertarian Party nomination.

[….]

“A vigorous third party campaign is a very real possibility this year, but it is not yet clear what the impact could be. Including Johnson’s name in our polling seems to be more of a placeholder for voters who are not particularly thrilled with either major party choice right now,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said when releasing the numbers.

Most new outlets focused on the head-to-head race between Clinton and Trump, which Clinton led in the poll 48 percent to 38 percent. Clinton also led U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas 45 percent to 40 percent though trailed John Kasich 45 percent to 39 percent according to the poll.

Many will argue voting for the Libertarians is a wasted vote. This is a totalitarian tactic used to force people from exercising their right to vote for who best represents them. With the 2016 election rapidly coming down to Hugo Chavez vs. a female Mao, Pro-liberty Americans have a right to vote for their beliefs. I know this is a pro-Trump blog and the cool thing is to support him, and if you don’t you are considered a traitor.

I also know there are those who are not on the Trump train and I am informing them they do have a choice. Consider Gov. Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party. He believes in freedom and economic opportunities for all Americans regardless of race or class. It is still for the moment despite what the Democrat and Republican parties would like, free country. Thus, voters should have an option that is not the lesser of Progressive evils.

Let the bashing and ridicule of my thread, commence! :-)

Rumsfeld: Democracy in Iraq was a mistake

by Phantom Ace ( 7 Comments › )
Filed under George W. Bush, Iraq, Progressives, Special Report, Tranzis at June 10th, 2015 - 8:47 am

Although the Iraq War was justified as is any war against any Islamic entity is, the aftermath was just plain stupid. In a bout of Naivete the Bush administration led by Wilsonian Progressives actually believed that Iraqis wanted Democracy. As it turned out, the Shias wanted an Iranian puppet regime and the Sunnis eventually threw in with the Islamic State. Donald Rumsfeld admits trying to install democracy in Iraq was a mistake.

Washington (CNN)Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld insisted in an interview with CNN Tuesday that his recent comments about being skeptical about creating a democracy in Iraq did not contradict his previous positions about the Iraq War.

Rumsfeld also called the Times of London’s report over the weekend — which suggested his views were critical of his old boss, President George W. Bush — “ridiculous.”

“When we went in (to Iraq), my view — and I thought it was a broadly held view — was that the goal was to have Saddam Hussein not be there, and to have what replaced Saddam Hussein be a government that would not have weapons of mass destruction, that would not invade its neighbors, and that would be reasonably respectful of diverse ethnic groups — meaning the Sunni, the Shia, the Kurds,” Rumsfeld told CNN in a phone interview Tuesday afternoon. “And that was kind of the understanding I had and I thought everyone had.”

In a story titled “Bush was wrong on Iraq, says Rumsfeld,” Rumsfeld told The Times that “the idea that we could fashion a democracy in Iraq seemed to me unrealistic. I was concerned about it when I first heard those words … I’m not one who thinks that our particular template of democracy is appropriate for other countries at every moment of their histories.”

[….]

Rumsfeld, who served as Bush’s defense secretary from 2001 to 2006, also told The Times that removing former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi was a mistake because it destabilized the region.

Sadly many in both parties particularly the GOP think imposing Democracy should be done at all costs.

Can We Add Agency Law To Our Growing List Of Grievances?

by Flyovercountry ( 94 Comments › )
Filed under Economy, Fascism, Progressives, Regulation, Tranzis at March 5th, 2015 - 8:58 am

Tip of the hat to The Daily Caller whose video I did not embed here due to their insistence upon the usage of autoplay, something I view as evil. Please click here, for their story, complete with a recorded phone conversation in which an apologetic banker gets to tell a business owner who had held an account at said bank for over a decade, that the government had forced his account to be frozen for no other reason than the fact that the government no longer appreciates his industry’s contribution to our economy.

Yes, Operation Choke Point is an evil perpetrated by Barack Obama and Eric Holder. The fault dear Brutus however does not lie in our stars that we are underlings, but in ourselves. There are many who would point to the 60’s as the beginning of the Progressive’s gaining their stranglehold on our nation. Some point to FDR and the, “New Deal,” as that beginning point. I’ve heard that our troubles with the progressive movement date back to Woodrow Wilson and his Presidency. However, I would like to point out that the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Amendments did far greater damage, even before Wilson took his position as our Chief Executive. (I realize that the Seventeenth Amendment became part of our Constitution about a month after Wilson’s Inauguration, but it was ratified before Wilson actually took office.) Many experts in our nation’s history will state that Teddy Roosevelt was the first Progressive to affect our national agenda, and granted he gave us a big push in that disastrous direction, and redefined the Executive Branch, but he was not where it all began. This all started with the Interstate Commerce Act of 1887. This was the first victory of the Progressive Movement, and it has grown into the behemoth that allows Barack Obama to act as a man elected to be our emperor, rather than our President.

For those who are not familiar with it, the Interstate Commerce Act of 1887 established our very first Federal Agency. This agency was vested with the ability to create its own rules, its own authority to enforce those rules, and its own system to adjudicate the process for any who wished to push back against the decisions of the agency. Quite literally, we had managed to create an entity that had contained within its scope of operation, a body that was vested with all of the powers of governance, thus doing away with the separation of powers. Since that date in our history, any and all legislation has been written purposefully vague, only ever including a desired outcome, with the specific rules to be determined later by either an existing federal agency, or through the creation of a new federal agency. It is With this wonderful exercise of genius that the destruction of our Constitutional Protections began. Agency Law was created with the establishment of the ICC in 1887. It should also be noted here, that it took almost exactly five years for the agency purportedly designed to keep the railroad men from becoming too powerful for the liking of those who lobbied for this legislation, to be peopled entirely with those, “robber barons,” so feared and vilified that the agency was thought necessary. Funny how that works out.

Once that happened, what we see today, even though it has taken 128 years to get here, became inevitable. Give Barack Obama credit for this at least. He saw the potential to simply ignore the U.S. Constitution afforded to him by this set of circumstances, and has taken full advantage of it. All he needs to do is suggest or ask that one of the agencies situated under the federal umbrella, write some additional rules to add to the scope under which they operate, and he pretty much can enact unilaterally anything he wishes to codify as law. Yes, technically such efforts can be overturned by our Judicial Branch, and indeed many of these actions have been thus far. However, our Judicial Branch moves too slowly to monitor or even address every such indiscretion. Even if it were capable of keeping up, Agency Law itself has become so ingrained in our society, such Judicial oversight and pushback has itself become all too rare.

In our history, there have been two Presidents who’ve tried earnestly to do something to put an end to, or at least reign in this system run amok. The first was Richard Nixon, and I’m sure you all remember what happened to him for his efforts. The second was Ronald Reagan, who also failed, and in fact discussed that failure as being his lasting regret.

So far, 26 states throughout the fruited plains have formally adopted ballot initiatives in favor of an Article V Convention for the purpose of proposing and debating Constitutional Amendments. I am most definitely in favor of this. By the way, many of the Liberals in our nation are as well, since they’re convinced that they would be able to alter the First Amendment to, “correct,” the Citizens United Decision.

One amendment that I’d like to see come to fruition would be something to put an end to Agency Law. Consider for one moment what this system has allowed for a President with dictatorial ambitions to do in only the short amount of time from early November until now. Barack Obama has rewritten our Immigration law, repealed the Second Amendment, pledged to unilaterally raise our taxes, promised to confiscate our 401k’s, threatened to fire the entirety of the retail financial services industry, instituted cap and trade, inflicted net neutrality, signed some very questionable treaties without the requisite Senatorial Consent, changed existing law, and all of this done with the statement that he gave Congress the chance to do what he wanted before he did it alone.

Don’t blame the Bamster however. While his actions are bad enough, it was we the people who didn’t realize that gridlock was itself a perk, gifted to us by the founding fathers, rather than a problem as proclaimed by the low information voting crowd. Barack Obama is merely the messenger, who has alerted us to a huge problem, and one that hopefully we can figure out how to correct.

Ronald Reagan campaigned on a platform that included ending the Department of Education and the Department of Energy. If the single most popular President in the modern era could not rid us of the two most unpopular facets of the federal behemoth, as he’d promised to do while campaigning, then what chance would anyone have to actually do something about reducing the size and scope of government? We keep talking about the symptoms, meanwhile, the cancer grows free. Something must be done to reign this monster in, and unless Agency Law itself is addressed, nothing will be successful.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.