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The math just does not add up

by Phantom Ace ( 166 Comments › )
Filed under Democratic Party, Elections 2016, Fascism, Hillary Clinton, Marxism, Nazism, Progressives, Republican Party, RINOcracy, Socialism, Tranzis at April 21st, 2016 - 8:00 am

One of the biggest myths of the 2012 election is that there were anywhere between 5 million and 65 million  potential Republican voters who did not show up. This was a myth perpetrated by Fox News, Talk Radio, Breitbart News and conservative websites. This tale was perpetrated  to make Republican voters feel good about themselves. Rather than be honest and admit the GOP has become a rural only party at the Presidential level, that needs to expand into suburban and urban areas. Instead it is feel good rhetoric about that people wanting free stuff or how losing is virtuous.

The following article debunks the missing voters lies and lays out the bare truth. The problem is not missing voters, it is that at the Presidential level, the Republican party has no appeal.

 

Give credit where credit is due. Donald Trump is basking in another big victory today. And there may never have been a campaign that bases so much of its reason for existence on “winning.” Yet, consider that even as Trump wins a landslide victory among Republican primary voters in New York, his polling numbers for November continue to plummet. According to the RealClearPolitics average of the latest polls, Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton — perhaps the worst Democratic candidate since George McGovern — by more than 9 percentage points. His net favorability rating is now just above 40 percent. That’s not exactly the stuff of “winning.”

To the degree that Trump has a strategy — a debatable point — it appears to be to appeal to disaffected white working-class voters, the oft-discussed “Reagan Democrats.” Trump hopes that by getting these nominally Democratic voters to cross over in November, he can expand the electoral map into the Midwest and other traditionally blue areas. In addition, Trump hopes to attract the 4 to 5 million “missing” conservatives who supposedly abandoned Mitt Romney in 2012. Unfortunately, as with so much about the Trump campaign, the numbers don’t actually add up.

Start with those missing conservative voters. It has become something of an article of faith on the right that as many as 5 million conservatives, disappointed with the moderate Mitt Romney, stayed home in 2012, costing Republicans the election. And on election night it certainly appeared that way, as Romney’s vote totals ran some 4 million behind those of previous nominees. And to be fair, it’s not only Donald Trump who believes this: Ted Cruz has also based much of his fall election strategy on this theory. But, as Sean Trende, perhaps the nation’s foremost voter analyst, has pointed out, that first look was misleading, resulting from slow vote counting in a number of traditionally Republican areas. Once all the votes were counted, Romney received 60.9 million votes, compared to 59.9 million for John McCain in 2008, and 60.7 million for George W. Bush in 2004. Moreover, exit polls showed that Romney performed roughly as well as both Bush and McCain among key Republican voter constituencies such as men, whites, evangelicals, and self-identified conservatives.

[….]

To begin with, actual Reagan Democrats — that is, the blue-collar Democrats who helped provide Reagan with his landslide victories in 1980 and 1984 — are mostly gone. If the average Reagan Democrat was 40 in 1980, the median voting age that year, he would be 76 today. Given the short life expectancies for white non-college-educated working-class men, a lot of those Reagan voters are not with us today.

[….]

In 1980, for example, even with all those Reagan Democrats, Ronald Reagan carried white voters by 10 percentage points. Mitt Romney actually won white voters by double that figure — 20 percentage points — but he still lost. That’s because whites’ share of the total vote fell from 90 percent in 1980 to around 76 percent in 2012. Even if Trump is able to push the white vote up by 2 or 3 points — something that he has shown that he is able to do in some primaries — he would still fall short in November. We live in a different demographic universe from the one we inhabited in 1980. And, while the absence of Barack Obama from the ticket could hurt minority turnout in some areas, the widespread antipathy for Trump among minorities would likely offset any falloff in the black or Latino vote.

[….]

Furthermore, all of this analysis presumes that Trump is able to hold traditional Republican votes, but that looks increasingly unlikely. Polls show that as many as 38 percent of Republican primary voters say they could not see themselves supporting Trump in November. One recent poll showed the Libertarian candidate — former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson — drawing 11 percent of the vote in a hypothetical three-way match-up with Trump and Clinton, even though he is virtually unknown outside his home state. Trump fares especially poorly with Republican women, with polls showing as many as 47 percent saying they cannot see themselves supporting the New York billionaire. Of course, many Republican voters will likely come home as November draws closer and they face the prospect of a President Hillary. But, given the demographic hill that Trump already has to climb, any loss of Republican support will pretty much doom his bid.

With Trump’s takeover of the Republican party almost complete and it’s transformation from a Center-Right to a Leftist-Populist party, many traditional Republicans are heading to the exits. The beneficiary is the Libertarian party, whose ranks are growing.

According to a recent Gallup poll and a report from Ballot Access News, the libertarian movement is not only gaining in popularity but is adding new members to the Libertarian Party. In fact, recent data shows that the it’s becoming the fastest growing party in the United States.

According to Cato‘s David Boaz, the number of people who identify as libertarian is increasing in the US according to the Gallup Poll’s 2015 survey. The results show that“27 percent of respondents can be characterized as libertarians, the highest number they have ever found,” as more people are identifying as libertarian than conservative, liberal or populist.

According to the March 1, 2016 Ballot Access News publication, Democrat Party registrations declined between Oct. 2014 and Feb. 2016. The same occurred among Republicans, Independents, The Green and Constitution Party.  The only party that gained registrations is the Libertarian Party (See chart below on page 3. The chart shows the states in which people register by party).

Austin Peterson who is running for the Libertarian party has adopted many traditional Republican stances, like being pro life.

The defection of Republicans to the Libertarians will come back and bite the GOP in November. I wonder what excuse Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Sean Hannity, Breitbart and other outlets will have when the GOP loses 3 elections in a row?

 

 

 

 

 

GOP-e inc Strikes Again

by coldwarrior ( 173 Comments › )
Filed under Politics, Republican Party, The Political Right at April 20th, 2016 - 6:00 am

The industry of GOP inc is more concerned over retaining their power over the GOP voters than doing their job and wining elections. The GOP takes tax moneys and donations from members, they are not a private company or a private club.

These people do not work for you, they work for themselves keeping the gravy train rolling at all costs and to hell with who you vote for and what you think.

 

My other question is, what organization or company that wants to be successful alienates half of their core consumers?

Trump staffers face threat of blacklist

Some political operatives shy away from the billionaire for fear of being shunned by other Republicans.

When Matt Braynard signed on to run Donald Trump’s data team last fall, he got an email from a veteran GOP operative to whom he was close warning, “You realize once you go Trumptard, your career in GOP politics is over?”
Braynard took the job anyway, explaining that he believed in Trump, and that he wasn’t worried about being blacklisted. “This isn’t a career, it’s a vocation, and only God can take that away,” he said he responded.
Story Continued Below

But according to interviews with more than a dozen operatives — including several who oppose Trump, some who support him and the leaders of some prominent D.C. political shops — some of those who go to work for Trump face an implicit, and occasionally overt, threat: Help Trump, and you’ll never work in this town again.

 

There is a 3rd Option

by Phantom Ace ( 332 Comments › )
Filed under Censorship, Democratic Party, Elections 2016, Fascism, Hillary Clinton, Marxism, Politics, Progressives, Republican Party, Socialism, Tranzis at March 29th, 2016 - 11:35 am

With the assistance of charlatans of the the alleged conservative media, America’s version of Hugo Chavez is set to win the nomination of the Reactionary-Socialist Republican party. On the other side, The femail version of Mao Zedong is set to win the nomination of the Neo-Marxist Democrat party. This is a terrible choice for those who believe in economic liberty, personal liberty and social tolerance.

Both parties with assistance from their respective media have been hijacked by radicals and reactionaries who envision a Fascist Socialist police state. The Democrats have been taken over social justice warriors who blame whites and Christians for everything wrong in the world. They sympathize with our Islamic adversaries and view Western Civilization as a blot on humanity. On the other side, the Republicans have been taken over by reactionary losers who rather than adapt to modern times pine for the 1950’s. They blame all of America’s ills on racial/ethnic minorities and  urban upscale whites. Both parties preach division and hatred of the “other.” A tactic totalitarian movements have used throughout history use to gain power, starting withe the Jacobins of revolutionary France..

Missing in this victimology mindset present in both parties is personal responsibility. It’s all about blaming others for your personal failings in life. Both parties preach a utopia where the victims will be in charge and those who are viewed as the cause of their ills will be treated as 2nd class citizens at best or even worse. Rather than address real issues, both parties use Soviet/Nazi style propaganda to keep their respective voters in state of anger. This sad state of affairs leaves Americans in both parties of good will with nowhere to go. Many feel they have to choose the lesser of 2 Totalitarian Progressive evils. New polling data reveals a new choice is emerging for those of us that just want to live our lives and do not have animosity with others.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is now polling at 11%. Republicans disgusted by the American Chavez and Democrats repulsed by the female Mao are seriously looking at the Libertarian party as an alternative.

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson would still be well behind the two major party candidates, but if a poll showed the Libertarian Party hopeful would be in the double digits against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

That’s according to a Monmouth University poll of registered voters released last week.

The poll shows that Clinton would get 42 percent, Trump 34 percent and Johnson 11 percent. Clinton is the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Johnson is one of 16 candidates—so far—seeking the Libertarian Party nomination.

[….]

“A vigorous third party campaign is a very real possibility this year, but it is not yet clear what the impact could be. Including Johnson’s name in our polling seems to be more of a placeholder for voters who are not particularly thrilled with either major party choice right now,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said when releasing the numbers.

Most new outlets focused on the head-to-head race between Clinton and Trump, which Clinton led in the poll 48 percent to 38 percent. Clinton also led U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas 45 percent to 40 percent though trailed John Kasich 45 percent to 39 percent according to the poll.

Many will argue voting for the Libertarians is a wasted vote. This is a totalitarian tactic used to force people from exercising their right to vote for who best represents them. With the 2016 election rapidly coming down to Hugo Chavez vs. a female Mao, Pro-liberty Americans have a right to vote for their beliefs. I know this is a pro-Trump blog and the cool thing is to support him, and if you don’t you are considered a traitor.

I also know there are those who are not on the Trump train and I am informing them they do have a choice. Consider Gov. Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party. He believes in freedom and economic opportunities for all Americans regardless of race or class. It is still for the moment despite what the Democrat and Republican parties would like, free country. Thus, voters should have an option that is not the lesser of Progressive evils.

Let the bashing and ridicule of my thread, commence! :-)

The Dauphin pays people to fill seats

by Phantom Ace ( 237 Comments › )
Filed under Elections 2016, Politics, Progressives, Republican Party, RINOcracy at February 3rd, 2016 - 7:00 am

JebDauphin

Let’s take a break from the Trump vs. Rubio vs. Cruz debates to mock the biggest loser of this election cycle. That infamy belongs to none other than Jeb Bush aka The Dauphin. Although personally a decent man, the uncrowned prince expects the GOP nomination to be handed to him. This has caused a rejection on the part of Republican voters who didn’t want the Dauphin to run.

In desperation mode, Jeb is paying people to fills eats at his rally. In an embarrassing moment, some of those stand up demanded their pay. The Dauphin was not too pleased.

A little flier showed up early Monday morning on social media.

A handful of Twitter users supporting various Republican presidential candidates tweeted a photo of slip of paper with a headline reading “$$$ Earn fast cash today! $$$” and an offer for $25 an hour to attend Jeb Bush’s final campaign event at the Embassy Suites in downtown Des Moines.

The implication: Bush was so desperate he was paying for faux supporters seven hours before the caucuses.

[….]

The notion that some kind of gamesmanship was afoot gained legitimacy at the event itself, when moments after Bush began speaking two young men stood up and very conspicuously demanded to be paid for their “seat filling.”

“We’ve been here for over two hours and we haven’t gotten paid for our time,” one man said, unleashing a torrent of boos and jeers from the audience.

“That is such — get out of here, man,” Bush shot back.

Staffers from his campaign approached the men and escorted them out, and Bush continued his speech. As he opened the floor for questions, though, he made sure the plants had all been removed.

PrinceJeb

If this is not bad enough, the Dauphin has spent 5,000 per vote.

In very early national polling in the Republican nomination race, Jeb Bush was the clear front-runner. But he never led in Iowa, where first Mike Huckabee, then Scott Walker, and then Donald Trump — interrupted briefly by Ben Carson and more effectively by Ted Cruz — held the lead. As recently as April, though, Bush was in a close second, trailing Walker by about three points.

Walker’s gone, and Bush ended up in sixth place Monday night, pulling in less than 3 percent of the vote. Between April and the caucus, Bush’s campaign spent $27.4 million dollars (according to FEC reports) and dropped 11 points in the polls. Not all of that spending was in Iowa, but Bush refused to give up on the state — and it cost him.

The Dauphin who called illegal immigration an act of love, then has the aducaity to run an ad attacking Rubio on Immigration.

Jeb Bush has turned into a sad and pathetic figure.  This is not the end of the Bush dynasty, waiting in the wings is the Duc D’Orleans George P. Bush!

This song is perfect for the Dauphin’s campaign.

Jeb Bush is a loser!