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The Israel card has been overstated

by Speranza ( 100 Comments › )
Filed under Ahmadinejad, Al Qaeda, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Islamists, Israel, Muslim Brotherhood, Palestinians, Syria, Turkey at May 15th, 2013 - 7:00 am

For decades now the popular mantra has been that the Israel-Arab dispute (or more precisely theIsrael-Palestine dispute) is what is making the Middle East so combustible. The fact of the matter is that the  pathologies of the Arab world be they Islam, Arab nationalism (Nasserism), or Baathism would guarantee a dysfunctional region even if Israel were no longer there.

by Barry Rubin

Bashing Israel has become fashionable in many Western circles, but in the Middle East it doesn’t work anymore.

For decades in the Middle East the most reliable political tool often seemed to be the Israel card; condemning Israel, blaming it for the Arab world’s problems, and claiming that those who were insufficiently militant on the issue were traitors.

But the Israel card doesn’t work anymore, at least not in the way it used to. True, the rise of revolutionary Islamism has focused more hatred against Israel. Yet at the same time – and this analogy is imperfect – it is less of a single-issue movement. As revolutionary Islamists seek to destroy their rivals (nationalist, moderates and each other) and fundamentally transform their own societies, they are kept pretty busy.

Jibril Rajoub, a senior Fatah official and supposed moderate, may insist that Israel is the main enemy of the Arabs and Muslims, but the Arabs and Muslims aren’t paying much attention. The Palestinian Authority, which his group runs – and which rules only on the West Bank – has no Middle Eastern patron at all.

[.......]

The chance that these two blocs would cooperate against Israel is close to zero. It was different a few years ago. Before the “Arab Spring,” Iran seemed set to become the region’s Muslim superpower. If Tehran obtained nuclear weapons (sometimes referred to as the “Islamic bomb”) it was expected to wield growing influence throughout the Arab world.

Today, however, that situation has reversed itself. Sunni Arabs, whether they are Islamists or anti-Islamists, openly hate and fear Iran. A nuclear weapon in Tehran’s hands would not increase its strategic or political influence. Iran faces a Sunni wall against its ambitions and it is almost without Arab allies.

As for Hezbollah, Iran’s sole reliable ally, it is not able to attack Israel from southern Lebanon. Thousands of its soldiers are tied up in Syria to keep an arms supply route open, help the Bashar Assad regime win, and protect Shia villagers. It also faces growing opposition from Sunni Muslims, financed by the Saudis and stirred up by hatred over Hezbollah’s actions in Syria, within Lebanon itself. Plus the fact that the Lebanese don’t want to be victimized by Hezbollah going to war with Israel given the damage suffered in the late round in 2006.

This is not, of course, due only to the Sunni-Shia issue. There has also been a sharp revival of Arab identity against the Turks and Persians. The region’s history of such ethnic clashes has been revived. If the Syrian civil war ends in a rebel victory, the winners will soon turn against their Turkish patrons. Indeed, while the trade between the two countries is still growing, the Syria issue has driven a deep rift between Turkey and Iran, who are supporting opposite sides.

Even Muslim Brotherhood Egypt and Muslim Brotherhood Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, have fallen out, albeit perhaps temporarily. The Egyptian government is unhappy that Hamas has not cracked down enough on the Salafists in Gaza and the Sinai who want to attack it.

[.......]

Israeli officials describe current security cooperation with the Egyptian government, or at least the intelligence services and military, as being quite good. Disputes between Muslim Brotherhood groups and even more radical Salafists are creating problems in Egypt and Syria.

Another factor is the economic catastrophe that is striking, or is about to strike, much of the Arab world. The incompetence and bad policies of the Islamists are making a mess. In Iran, of course, this is heightened by international sanctions.

The obsessively anti-Israel strategy of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become unpopular as being unnecessarily provocative.

The fact is that Syria is wrecked for many years to come; Iraq is not in good shape due to internal battles; and Egypt is on the verge of disaster. Obviously, to attempt to stir up hatred against Israel as being responsible for these problems in order to mobilize popular support is tempting.

But what can be done about it? Israeli flags can be burned in Cairo; tourism there may become impossible; and the embassy could be closed. Yet will Egypt court war, with a reluctant military, the need for international financial aid, and the possibility that the US could cut off the arms supply?  [......]

Finally, something has been learned by the Arab masses and leaders over the past half-century. The old cries that Israel could easily be destroyed by cooperation and determination don’t seem quite as persuasive in the face of many Arab military defeats. There’s a lot more caution. Among the elites there’s even the idea that Israel can be an asset in their struggle against Iran.

I don’t want to overstate the case. Moves toward peace – with Islamists in power or looking over the regime’s shoulders and eager to inveigh against treasonous moderation – are unlikely. Vicious propaganda will continue unabated. Terrorism will be launched at every opportunity.

Ironically, this change coincides with a frenzied effort to reduce support for Israel in the West, including in Jewish communities through boycotts, sanctions, divestment, and massive misinformation.  [.......] Perhaps this is taken as justifying inaction or perhaps it is seen as still another attempt to find a victorious strategy when so many others have failed.

Perhaps someday, if and when revolutionary Islamists have consolidated power in several countries, the situation will change again. But until then, yelling “Israel” at a crowded rally – at least in the Middle East – will not prove a panacea for the political problems of Arab governments and politicians.

Read the rest – The Israel card has been overplayed

How America lost it’s four best generals

by Speranza ( 202 Comments › )
Filed under Afghanistan, Iraq, Military at April 15th, 2013 - 7:00 am

I can’t help but wonder if the prospect for working under Obama-Kerry-Hagel-Brennan has not made several top generals decide to hang it all up.

by Max Boot

The quasi-official ideology of the U.S. armed forces holds that generals are virtually interchangeable, that individual personalities don’t matter much, that ordinary grunts are in any case more important than their leaders, and that what really counts are larger systems that make a complex bureaucracy function. There is some truth to all of this. But for all of the bureaucratic heft of the services and the heroism of ordinary soldiers, it is hard to imagine the Civil War having been won without Grant, Sherman, and Sheridan—or World War II without Marshall, Eisenhower, Patton, Bradley, Arnold, LeMay, Nimitz, Halsey, and all the other senior generals and admirals.

Likewise it is hard to imagine the War on Terror having been waged without four-star commanders such as David Petraeus, Stanley McChrystal, John Allen, and James Mattis. They are among the most illustrious generals produced by the last decade of fighting. They are the stars of their generation. From Iraq to Afghanistan and beyond, they emerged from anonymity to orchestrate campaigns that, after initial setbacks, have given the United States a chance to salvage a decent outcome from protracted counterinsurgencies; they have also literally rewritten the book on how to wage modern war successfully. Yet aside from the similarities in the challenges they faced and the skills they displayed in rising to the task, these men share another, more troubling resemblance: They are either gone from the military or (in the case of Mattis) about to go as of this writing. And for the most part they are leaving under unhappy circumstances. A strong case can be made that all were shabbily treated to one extent or another. Petraeus was hounded out of the CIA and McChrystal out of high command in Afghanistan under a cloud of scandal; Allen saw his reputation unfairly marred by scandal before deciding to call it quits; and Mattis is said to have been pushed out early after clashes with the White House. Certainly none of them was afforded the respect and honors that successful officers at the pinnacle of their career ought to expect—in part to drive younger officers to follow their example and seize the day when their time comes. The treatment of these four remarkable generals at the hands of President Obama and his aides, whatever the merits of each individual case, is likely to rankle within the armed forces and leave those forces less prepared for future challenges.

Of the four, Petraeus was first among equals, the dominant general of his generation. McChrystal effectively worked for Petraeus in Iraq after the latter took over the war effort there in 2007. Allen did work for him as deputy commander at Central Command, the operational headquarters for U.S. military efforts in the Middle East. As Petraeus’s successor at Centcom, Mattis was nominally his predecessor’s boss during his time in Afghanistan, but only nominally: Because of the success he had achieved in Iraq in 2007 and 2008, Petraeus had effectively become answerable only to the commander-in-chief.

The story of Petraeus’s role during the surge is well known and would not need much recitation were it not for the persistent attempts by revisionists to deprecate his achievement. His critics argue that (1) the Sunni Awakening (in which Iraqis fighting against the United States instead turned on al-Qaeda) was primarily responsible for the turnaround and independent of the surge orchestrated by Petraeus, and (2) that the impact of the surge was in any case overblown because it did not solve Iraq’s deep-seated political problems.

What should we make of these criticisms?

The Awakening did begin in the fall of 2006 before Petraeus took over command in Iraq. But there had been previous revolts among the Sunni sheikhs of Anbar Province who had chafed under the heavy-handed dominance of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).  [........]

By contrast, Petraeus saw the potential of the Awakening from the start and supported it to the hilt, providing funding, weapons, and even planning risky prisoner releases to bolster the credibility of the sheikhs among their own people. The success of the Awakening was not a refutation but a confirmation of his approach to counterinsurgency, which depended on winning the support of local notables as much as executing more traditional measures of battlefield success.

This was only one of many “lines of operation” that Petraeus pursued in contrast with the less ambitious and less successful approach of his predecessors. He and General Ray Odierno, then the day-to-day commander in Iraq, pushed U.S. troops off the massive “forward operating bases” on which they had secured and isolated themselves. Troops were directed instead to live in population centers so they could provide security to the Iraqis around the clock, seven days a week. Petraeus also pressured Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (a Shiite) to approach the Sunnis, and to remove the most notorious anti-Sunni ethno-sectarians from his government. Petraeus oversaw the detention and killing of more insurgents than ever before without causing a backlash among the Sunni population, because his troops acted on precisely targeted intelligence. He instituted “counterinsurgency behind the wire” in detention facilities, to make sure that hard-core detainees in coalition custody were not able to cultivate new recruits behind bars. He targeted Iranian intelligence operatives who were supporting insurgent groups (among them the notorious Mahdi Army) fighting coalition forces. He also communicated clearly and without spin to the American public and Congress about the extent of the success he was achieving and the problems that still remained. And on and on. The scale and scope of Petraeus’s activities as commander of Multi-National Force–Iraq were exhaustive and exhausting.

[.......]

Petraeus’s achievement in turning around a desperate situation in Iraq has few parallels in the annals of counterinsurgency. It will guarantee his place in military history, even though he did not have a comparable degree of success in Afghanistan during his year in command.

Petraeus was sent in July 2010 to Afghanistan to replace Stanley McChrystal, another remarkable general. McChrystal had established an outsize reputation as the commander (from 2003 to 2008) of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), home to SEAL Team Six, Delta Force, and other top-tier special-operations forces. McChrystal displayed a dedication that was legendary even in the hard-charging world of special operations: [.......]Along the way he remade JSOC into the finest man-hunting organization in the world.

McChrystal has been credited with four innovations. First, he invited other intelligence agencies, such as the CIA and NSA, to send liaison officers to his headquarters, where he shared information generously with them—a radical change for the secretive culture of the special-operations forces. Those agencies, in turn, reciprocated by sharing more intelligence with JSOC than in the past. Second, he improved JSOC’s interrogation facilities and trained interrogators to extract useful information without the use of the “enhanced interrogation techniques” that became so controversial and notorious. Third, he emphasized “sensitive site exploitation,” ordering his men to take the time to gather up all the hard drives, papers, and other information they could grab at a target site. Fourth, McChrystal wrangled more manned and unmanned aircraft and more Internet bandwidth for JSOC, vastly increasing its ability to monitor potential targets.  [.......]

McChrystal accurately has summed up his tenure at JSOC in his new memoir, My Share of the Task: “What had been impressive but rudimentary,” he wrote, “was now a relentless counterterrorist machine.” The high-profile targets captured or killed by his men included both Saddam Hussein, taken out of a “spider hole” in December 2003, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, killed in an air strike in June 2006.

It was no surprise, therefore, when McChrystal was appointed the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan in the summer of 2009. What was surprising was his departure in disgrace from the job after only a year—an eventful year, to be sure. It began with McChrystal’s warning that the war effort was in danger of failure unless more resources were rushed to Afghanistan. His report, disclosed by Bob Woodward in September 2010, caused considerable resentment in the White House. Some Obama advisers believed the military was trying to box in the president, and that conviction surely played a role in McChrystal’s ultimate undoing—though it did not prevent him from getting two-thirds of what he wanted, 33,000 out of the 40,000 troops he had requested.  [.........]

Trying to make the best of what he was given, McChrystal implemented a counterinsurgency strategy focused on southern Afghanistan’s Helmand and Kandahar provinces, both longtime Taliban strongholds. He did not stress the “kinetic” operations he had conducted at JSOC but a softer approach to counterinsurgency, mandating that there be fewer air strikes so as to reduce civilian casualties. This proved controversial (some pundits accused him of endangering the lives of his troops), but it was the right decision to make: In a counterinsurgency, killing too many innocent people can create more enemies than you remove.

With less notoriety, McChrystal worked hard to bring greater unity of effort to what had been a disjointed, multinational campaign. He created a new command to serve as the day-to-day manager of combat operations, which coordinated the work of the Regional Commands run by generals from various nations. He also created new commands to improve the training of Afghan security forces, detention operations, and the enforcement of the rule of law.  [........]

McChrystal was off to a good start, but he never got the chance to see his campaign plan through. His war ended abruptly at 2 a.m. on June 22, 2010, when he found out that Rolling Stone had come out with an article quoting his aides anonymously making disparaging comments about President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and other senior administration figures.

[........] Obama’s decision was certainly understandable and perhaps correct. At the very least, the scandal had shown that McChrystal had a blind spot when it came to media relations; why on earth had he granted such privileged access to a reporter from an antiwar publication who was known to be hostile to U.S. operations?

Even so, McChrystal’s departure at the peak of his powers was a significant blow to the U.S. armed forces, and it was keenly felt among his special-operations comrades.

And not just among special-ops. There was a paucity of candidates to fill the command, and Obama made a spur-of-the-moment decision to ask Petraeus to take over from McChrystal. Petraeus instantly agreed to go to Kabul, even though it would be a demotion from his post at the helm of Central Command and a return to a war zone after having already spent much of the post-9/11 period “down range.”

As the new commander in Afghanistan, Petraeus did not radically change McChrystal’s plan, which he had helped formulate. He did, however, make some important alterations. He emphasized, for example, that a desire to avoid civilian casualties should not compromise the aggressive use of force against the Taliban. He created a new task force to root out corruption associated with American spending. He focused on reintegrating lower-level Taliban fighters who wanted to switch sides. He inaugurated a new program, the Afghan Local Police, that sent U.S. Special Forces teams into villages to organize anti-Taliban auxiliary forces. Petraeus oversaw steady progress, especially in building up the Afghan National Security Forces and clearing the Taliban out of Helmand and Kandahar—but, as he had cautioned during his confirmation hearing, there would be no dramatic turnaround as in Iraq.  [..........]

Once again, the general in charge of Afghanistan would depart exactly one year after he had arrived. Only in this case, he did not resign and he was not forced out. Instead, Petraeus volunteered to take the post of director of the Central Intelligence Agency. The job he had wanted, and earned, was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but Obama did not offer it to him, presumably because he feared appointing someone of Petraeus’s stature and independence to such an influential post. Petraeus accepted the CIA directorship because it would allow him to continue to play an operational role in the War on Terror. That job, too, was to last little more than a year (14 months, to be exact), and would culminate in the revelation that Petraeus had carried on an affair with his biographer, Paula Broadwell. When the FBI revealed the affair to Petraeus’s boss, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, Petraeus offered his resignation at once.  [.........]

While Petraeus had undoubtedly behaved indiscreetly, there was no suggestion he had violated any law or committed any transgression other than breaking his marriage vows. It is hard to imagine that, in this sexually permissive age, a purely personal indiscretion—of the kind that had been committed in the past by numerous generals and CIA directors alike—could lead to the downfall of America’s foremost military man. [........] “A Phony Hero for a Phony War” was the headline on a New York Times op-ed by Lucian K. Truscott IV.

The collateral damage from that scandal then engulfed Marine General John R. Allen, who had replaced Petraeus in Kabul. Allen is a courtly, cerebral Southerner who graduated from the Naval Academy and later became a professor and commandant of midshipmen there—the first Marine to fill that position. He made a name for himself as the deputy commander of Multi-National Forces in Iraq’s Anbar Province in 2007–2008, when he undertook the delicate negotiations that helped to wean the Sunni sheikhs from Al-Qaeda in Iraq. He later served as Petraeus’s deputy at Centcom before becoming his successor in Afghanistan, which made him (again) the first Marine to command an entire theater of war.

Although this was his first major battlefield command, Allen performed more than capably in dealing with difficult challenges such as “Green on Blue” attacks by Afghan troops on their coalition counterparts. [.........] Just as important, Allen managed to get along with two prickly presidents whose support was essential for progress, Hamid Karzai and Barack Obama.

Hard as the challenges he faced in Afghanistan were, Allen’s worst ordeal began in November 2012 when someone, during the course of the Petraeus scandal, leaked word to the news media that he had exchanged numerous emails with Tampa socialite Jill Kelley. It took two months of investigation by the Pentagon’s Inspector General before Allen was finally cleared of charges that there was something “inappropriate” about the emails. By then the damage had been done. As Allen told the Washington Post, “the investigation took a toll” on his wife, and on him.

Before the revelations, Allen had been nominated to become the next Supreme Allied Commander–Europe, but his nomination had been placed on hold while the investigation was going on. When he was finally cleared of any wrongdoing, he could have moved forward with the confirmation process, but he chose to retire instead, explaining that he needed to devote his energy to helping his wife, Kathy, who was struggling with a host of maladies including an autoimmune disorder. [.........]

And then there is Marine General James Mattis—nicknamed “Mad Dog” Mattis and the “Warrior Monk” for his ferocity toward the enemy and his single-minded dedication to the military arts. Mattis is a lifelong bachelor who has a reputation, notwithstanding his lack of any advanced degree, as one of the best-read students of military history and strategy in the entire armed forces. During the course of his career, he accumulated a library of some 7,000 volumes that he lugged from post to post.

Mattis first gained public attention as the one-star commander of a Marine task force that entered Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 to help Special Operations Forces mop up the remnants of the Taliban. His ability to push his Marines far inland, to the maximum extent of their helicopter range, was impressive. Even more impressive was his ability, as a two-star general, to lead the First Marine Division from Kuwait to Baghdad in a matter of weeks in the spring of 2003.  [.........]

As soon as Saddam fell, Mattis moved from conventional combat to conducting counterinsurgency and stabilization operations in southern Iraq with a minimum of firepower. “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet,” he told his men, and he warned Iraqis that the Marines would be “no better friend, no worse enemy.” The First Marine Division’s approach in the south echoed that of Petraeus’s 101st Airborne Division in the north, and both stood in contrast to the more conventional and heavy-handed approach used by army divisions in central and western Iraq.  [...........]

Mattis’s most frustrating experience came between the time of the initial invasion and the release of the field manual three years later. He returned to Iraq in 2004 intending to conduct counterinsurgency operations in Anbar Province but found himself, as commander of the First Marine Division, forced to undertake a conventional assault on Fallujah after insurgents had killed four American contractors who wandered into the city. Mattis thought it would have been wiser to slowly chip away at enemy forces in Fallujah, but he was told by his political superiors to launch an all-out offensive—only to be subsequently told to stop the attack just when it was on the verge of success because it was causing political perturbations in Baghdad. [.........]

Mattis, indeed, developed a Patton-like reputation for outspokenness with comments such as the one he made at a San Diego conference in 2005: “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap around women for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway, so it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them.”

Mattis’s political incorrectness was thought to bar further promotion. And yet in 2007 he was promoted to four-star rank and appointed to head the now defunct Joint Forces Command. Then in 2010, he was appointed Petraeus’s successor at Centcom. In this post he made few public ripples but worked intently behind the scenes to support the war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan and to prepare for the possibility of conflict with Iran. He was due to retire from Centcom in March, after just two and a half years. Veteran military correspondent Tom Ricks has reported that Mattis was being forced out early because he displeased some in the Obama administration with his blunt questioning about the lack of preparation for war with Tehran.

Mackubin Thomas Owens, a retired Marine who is now a professor at the Naval War College, recently wrote: “By pushing Gen. Mattis overboard, the administration sent a message that it doesn’t want smart, independent-minded generals who speak candidly to their civilian leaders.”  [..........]

Petraeus, McChrystal, Allen, and Mattis would be the first to deny that they are irreplaceable—the graveyards, they would no doubt remind us, are said to be full of irreplaceable men. And clearly there are a number of capable officers who will strive to fill their combat boots. Some heroes of the last decade of war—including General Ray Odierno, General Martin Dempsey (chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), Admiral William McRaven (McChrystal’s successor at JSOC and the man who oversaw the Osama bin Laden raid), and Major General H.R. McMaster (a noted military intellectual and counterinsurgency commander)—remain in uniform.

But the experience and savvy of the four will be hard to replace. Certainly they deserve more public appreciation than they have gotten so far and, at the very least, an honored role in helping to teach a new generation of soldiers and Marines how to operate at the pinnacle of command. We do not have such a surplus of brilliant commanders that we can afford to wave away those like Petraeus and McChrystal and Allen and Mattis, who have demonstrated a mastery of the modern battlefield. We can only hope that President Obama’s cavalier attitude toward the loss of their institutional knowledge, their leadership abilities, and their complex understanding of a dangerous world does not prove to be a tragedy for the nation.

Read the rest – How America Lost it’s Four Great Generals

Iraqi Women less free after the war

by Rodan ( 4 Comments › )
Filed under Headlines, Iraq, Islamists, Sharia (Islamic Law) at March 21st, 2013 - 7:00 pm

The Iraq War was supposed to set off a domino of freedom according to its supporters. In reality the US created an Shia Sharia state loyal to Iran. Even worse, Iraqi females are less free now under this new “Democracy” than under the tyranny of Saddam Hussein.

Baghdad, Iraq (CNN) — It is 10 years after the invasion of Iraq, and images of Iraqi women from various political parties are filling the streets of Baghdad ahead of April’s local elections — a sign to casual observers that women’s equality is on track in this war-ravaged country.

But although the women of Iraq have obtained some benefits on paper, the reality is that they have lost far more than they have gained since the war began in 2003.

[....]

But on the other hand, women are no longer guaranteed equal treatment under one law in terms of marriage, divorce, inheritance and custody. That law, the Family Statutes Law, has been replaced one giving religious and tribal leaders the power to regulate family affairs in the areas they rule in accordance with their interpretation of religious laws.

This not only is making women more vulnerable, it is giving women from various sects (Sunni or Shia) or religion (Muslim or Christian) different legal treatments on the same issues.

Economically, women have gone from being visibly active in the Iraqi work force in the 1980s — particularly in the farming, marketing and professional services sectors — to being nearly non-existent in 2013.

The oppression of women and the ethnic cleansing of Christians is a disgrace.

 

 

end?

How the Iraq War led to Obamacare

by Rodan ( 212 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Cult of Obama, Democratic Party, George W. Bush, Iraq, Progressives, Republican Party at March 21st, 2013 - 1:00 pm

It has been 10 years since Bush made the fateful decsion to invade Iraq. At the time the pretext was WMDs but in reality it was Bush testing out the “Spread Democracy” canard that the GOP foreign policy establishment belives. As we have seen, Islamic nations do not want democracy, they want Sharia law and an Islamic government. Although militarily a success, the Iraq war was a political disaster for Republicans.

Ever since the Iraq war the GOP is no longer trusted by the American voting public on national security. It does not help that since Iraq the Republican Party’s response to foreign policy is for more war and nation building. This lack of credibility has enabled the rise of the progressive movement. There is a direct correlation between the Iraq war and Obamacare.

This week brought two milestones: It has been 10 years since the United States invaded Iraq, and three years since President Obama’s health care legislation became law. It’s fitting that the two events coincided, because it was the Iraq War that made the passage of Obamacare possible.

Ten years later, many supporters of the Iraq War spent this week either apologizing for or justifying their backing of the war. Personally, I supported the war at the time and the subsequent “surge” strategy, but in hindsight, given the absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, it’s hard to see how the endeavor was worth the tremendous financial cost and American deaths involved.

As if that weren’t enough, one of the realities that should tip the scales for pro-war conservatives is that the Iraq War paved the way for one of the most significant expansions of the federal government in U.S. history.

[....]

It’s quite possible that a Democrat still would have won the White House in 2008, even had the Iraq War never been fought. But that Democrat would not likely have been Obama, nor anyone nearly as liberal. And were it not for the war, no Democratic president would have come into office with as much political capital — or with such large majorities in Congress — as Obama did.

It’s hard to see how Obamacare would have become law if Bush had never invaded Iraq. This is a bitter pill to swallow for those conservatives who supported the war and bitterly fought Obamacare.

Conservatives need to own up to the unpopularity of the Iraq war. The US gained very little out of that war and lost many lives and treasure. The Republican party has lost its edge for the time being on national security and is seen as nothing but nation builders. Its time for the Right to admit Iraq was a mistake and vow to never again get involved in nation building. It is time for the McCain Wing of the GOP to be neutered and silenced.

The Iraq war enabled a Far Leftist like Obama to become President. Without that war, its very probably we would not have President Obama. Sometimes wars have unintended consequences.

Chuck Hagel likes Ike, but is he reading history correctly?

by Speranza ( 148 Comments › )
Filed under Cold War, Egypt, France, History, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Russia, Syria, UK at January 31st, 2013 - 7:00 am

Although in many ways a fine president, Dwight Eisenhower (as he later admitted and as his Vice President at the time Richard Nixon also said) badly bungled the 1956 Suez War.  All it did was enhance the prestige of the Arab fascist dictator  Gamal Abdel Nasser, and helped drive our allies Britain and France out of the Middle East, (French distrust of America after World War II dates from Suez) all the while helping the Soviet Union consolidate its position in Egypt. Eisenhower learned the hard way (but at least he learned)  that the problem in the Middle East was not the Arab-Israeli conflict but Arab imperialism (now it is Islamic imperialism). I doubt whether Chuck Hagel or Barack Obama are capable of learning those lessons

by Lee Smith

When Barack Obama first came to office, the model bandied about by journalists and academics was Abraham Lincoln. The 44th president of the United States, our first African-American commander-in-chief, was the embodied legacy of the man who banished slavery and unified the country. And Obama, like Lincoln, assembled a “team of rivals”—a Cabinet not of “yes” men, but of prominent statesmen and policymakers in their own right, some of whom had a rocky history with the president, including most prominently his onetime rival, Hillary Clinton.

But now, with Obama’s second term just under way, the focus has turned to Dwight D. Eisenhower. Evan Thomas, author of a recent book on Eisenhower, suggested that Obama might look to Ike’s example for how to get out of Afghanistan and “draw down military spending.” The key lesson, wrote Thomas, is “have the confidence to be humble.” “Obama,” argued one Los Angeles Times editorial, “would do well to emulate [Eisenhower's] patient pursuit of a peaceful world and productive economy.” And Clinton even bluntly cited the 34th president as a model in the recent 60 Minutes interview with her and Obama.  [........]

That’s the version of Ike held by the Obama Administration: humble, prudent and patient. A five-star general who led the allies to victory over the axis knew how to corral America’s friends and thrash its enemies, but warning against the “military-industrial complex,” he also knew the limits of military force.

It’s easy to see why this version of Eisenhower would appeal to the president and his new Cabinet picks—especially his nominee for secretary of defense, Chuck Hagel, whom Peter Beinart called the “new Eisenhower,” and who called himself an “Eisenhower Republican.”

According to David Ignatius of the Washington Post, Hagel bought three dozen copies of a recent book about Eisenhower to distribute to Obama and top Cabinet officials, like Vice President Joe Biden and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Eisenhower 1956: The President’s Year of Crisis—Suez and the Brink of War, is the latest book by Eisenhower scholar David Nichols, who’s also written a book on Eisenhower and civil rights and is working on another about Ike and the supreme court. But Nichols’ recent effort, writes Ignatius, “is a useful guide to how Hagel thinks about American power in the Middle East.”

Not unlike Obama, Eisenhower came to office believing that his predecessor had tilted too heavily in favor of Israel. After all, Harry Truman, the American president who recognized the Jewish state, once boasted that he was Cyrus, the ancient Persian king who saved the Jews from annihilation. Eisenhower believed it was necessary to recalibrate America’s Middle East policy lest it alienate the Arabs and put them all in the Soviet camp. The struggle then was essentially over Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Whoever won the allegiance of the leading Arab nationalist of the day, a man who seemed to capture the collective Arab imagination stretching from North Africa to the Persian Gulf, would win the Cold War struggle for the Middle East. Seen from this perspective, siding too much with Israel was a non-starter.

Accordingly, when Israel, together with France and Great Britain, invaded the Suez Canal after Nasser had nationalized the strategically vital waterway, Eisenhower compelled the three American allies to withdraw. The United States, he believed, should never be perceived to be collaborating with the great European colonial powers, or else the Soviets could rightly portray Washington as complicit with colonialism. Eisenhower’s triumph at Suez then amounted to recognizing when the interests of U.S. allies clashed with our own and putting them in their place.

According to Ignatius, that’s the sort of strategic courage that Hagel prizes in Eisenhower. The problem, however, is that since neither London nor Paris have a position in the Middle East any longer, Hagel’s fascination with Suez—his determination that Obama’s senior decision-makers should all learn the same lesson from the same book—tends to underscore his unseemly obsession with Israel. Worse yet for the former Nebraska lawmaker, who once went out of his way to clarify that he was not an “Israeli senator,” is the fact that Eisenhower’s strategic understanding of the Middle East was long ago discredited—by none other than Ike himself.

In fact, Eisenhower came to believe that Suez had been the “biggest foreign-policy blunder of his administration.” In hindsight, it’s not hard to see why. He ruined the position of two longtime allies, effectively driving Britain out of the Middle East once and for all, and without any benefit to American interests. If Eisenhower expected Nasser to be grateful, he was sorely mistaken.

“From Nasser’s perspective, he played the superpowers against each other and came out the winner,” says Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “What Ike thought he was doing was laying the groundwork for a new order in the Middle East, a third course between the re-imposition of European colonialism and the Soviet Union.  [........]”

Doran, a former George W. Bush Administration National Security Council staffer in charge of the Middle East, is finishing a book about Eisenhower and the Middle East that looks at how Eisenhower’s understanding of the region changed over time. “Eisenhower slammed his allies and aided his enemies at Suez,” Doran explains, “because his policy was based on certain key assumptions of how the Arab world worked. The most important of these was the notion of Arab unity. [......].”

Chief among them, Eisenhower and his Secretary of State John Foster Dulles believed, was the Arab-Israeli conflict. They saw the role of the United States then as playing the honest broker, mediating between Israel on one side and the Arab world on the other. If this conceit is still popular today with American policymakers, says Doran, “it’s partly because some Arab officials continue to talk this way. The idea is, to win over the Arabs we have to stop being so sympathetic to Israel.”

But in the wake of Suez, Eisenhower came to see the region through a different lens. He paid more attention to what Arab leaders actually did, rather than what they said. “Between March 1957 and July 1958, Eisenhower got the equivalent of the Arab spring,” says Doran. “It was a revolutionary wave around the region and for Ike a tutorial on Arab politics. There was upheaval after upheaval, in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and then the Iraqi revolution of 1958 that toppled an American ally. All of them were internal conflicts, tantamount to Arab civil wars, and had nothing to do with Israel. With this, Eisenhower recognized that the image he had of the Arab world had nothing to do with the political realities of the Middle East.”

[.......]

In 1958, Nasser was enjoying his heyday, boosted largely by the victory in Suez that Eisenhower handed him on a silver platter. Evidence that Ike came to reject his earlier understanding of the Middle East was his decision to land the Marines in Lebanon in 1958 to protect a pro-U.S. government. “Nasser was monkeying around in Jordan and had stoked a low-level civil war in Lebanon,” says Doran. “The U.S. was aware that its allies, Camille Chamoun in Lebanon, and King Hussein in Jordan, were embattled. Eisenhower had already watched the pro-U.S. Hashemite dynasty in Iraq fall and saw it as a disaster for the West, and a victory for Nasser and the Soviet Union. [........]”

This Eisenhower—defending allies and vanquishing foes in order to advance American interests—squares with neither the outdated and uninformed version of Ike that Hagel promotes, nor with Hagel’s own policy prescriptions. Hagel is against sanctions on Iran and even voted against designating its Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, and wants to engage other terror outfits, like Hamas.  [.......] Because, by all indications, he has thus far been pushing an account of history more than 50 years out of date.

Read the rest  – Eisenhower’s new fans

The Washington Post thinks that the iron dome anti-missile system is anti peace; the E.U. will soon list Hezbollah as a terrorist group

by Speranza ( 107 Comments › )
Filed under Hamas, Hezballah, IDF, Iraq, Islamic Terrorism, Israel, Media, Palestinians, Syria, Turkey at December 19th, 2012 - 12:00 pm

File this under  the heading of  “Can you believe this dreck”? Recently on PBS an idiot named Mark Shields actually complained that only a few Israelis were killed by Hamas’s rockets while scores of Palestinians have been killed, Charles Krauthammer rolled his eyes at him  and gave him a “What kind of moron are you?” stare.

by Barry Rubin

I hate to spend time discussing US media coverage of Israel. It should be clearly understood that in general this coverage is a farce and should not be taken seriously. Yet there are examples which are irresistible because they are so revealing of the political as well as media assumptions made about Israel that so mislead the Western public and policymakers.

The Washington Post ran a major article explaining that while, on one hand, the Iron Dome missile defense system is a good thing because it blocks missiles that would otherwise kill and injure Israelis as well as cause damage, it is also a bad thing. Thomas Friedman made similar claims. Why? “For a nation that longs for normalcy and acceptance, one question being debated here is whether Iron Dome will motivate Israel’s leaders to pursue peace with the Palestinians and the wider Arab world or insulate them from having to do so.”

In other words, if a lot more Israelis were being killed and wounded, Israel would have more incentive to make peace with the Palestinians and Arabs. But since their lives are merely being paralyzed, Israel just isn’t interested in making peace.

And who is “debating” this? Well, basically the Post comes up with one name: left-wing author Tom Segev.

Nobody is interviewed who ridicules this bizarre thesis.

And who in Israel is arguing that if only they were more bloodied, their hearts would be softened and they would prefer peace to endless conflict? Supposedly Israelis are saying: “Wow, we wish our leaders tried harder to make peace with the Palestinians. Maybe it’s because we are too strong and secure.” Well, basically the Post comes up with one name: left-wing author Tom Segev.  [........]

JUST TO make the situation completely clear let me be very explicit: In the 1980s and in 1993 at the time of the Oslo agreements many Israelis argued that because Israel was more secure it could take risks and make concessions to try to achieve peace. A number of specific steps, including Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, were based on this same premise.

[.........]

That’s the historic argument: The more secure Israel was, the more it could offer the Palestinians in the hope that they would make peace. Is that clear? When a country becomes less secure it must increase its ability to protect itself, including by retaining territory useful for that defense, spending more on military equipment, and not making concessions and taking risks. The only exception is if people feel certain that such concessions and risks would definitely bring a full response from the other side and thus lead to a secure and lasting peace.

Now even leaving aside the Palestinian Authority’s intransigence and desire – clearly visible for the past 12 years – to avoid a compromise two-state solution, Israel also faces the following new regional features:

• Hamas, which constantly attacks Israel and would continue to do so (indeed, it would escalate attacks) if Israel did reach an agreement with the PA.

• An Islamist Egypt whose ruling Muslim Brotherhood group daily speaks of genocide against Israel and Jews, plus not accepting the 30-year-old peace treaty, not to mention the even more extreme Salafists.

• An Islamist-ruled Lebanon, where Hezbollah, the ruling group, constantly threatens to attack and also daily calls for Israel’s extinction.

• A hostile Turkey whose rulers support Hamas and Hezbollah.

• A Syria where radical Islamists seem poised to gain power. They cannot possibly be more anti-Israel than the current regime, but they are willing to make the anti-Israel war a higher priority for direct action.

So this is an era where Israel clearly needs to defend itself. Compare this to the early 1990s.

Saddam Hussein had been defeated in the 1991 war; the radical Arabs’ main ally, the USSR, had fallen; America was the sole superpower; the PLO was so weak and depressed that it seemed conceivable it might be pushed into peace because it had no other alternative (in contrast to the contemporary Palestinian Authority which just got recognition as a state and is feeling very confident); and other factors.
[........]

SO HOW do we get from here to demands that Israel must keep doing what has failed and the claim that the weaker Israel’s strategic position, the more it can and should make concessions and take risks? Such a stance is just about equivalent to saying it is a pity US counter-terrorism measures are working, because if more September 11-type attacks were to succeed, Americans would be nicer to Muslims.

Or that if the British air force had only not defeated the Luftwaffe, perhaps prime minister Winston Churchill wouldn’t have been so insulated from the need to make peace with the Axis.

What’s most infuriating about all of this is not just that Israel has tried so hard to make peace – including risks and concessions – but that the very attacks referred to in the Washington Post article were made possible only because Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in an attempt to promote peace! Yet the essential insanity of the kind of thinking epitomized by this article is shielded when it comes to Israel, by the media’s bias and sense that it can get away with any nonsense when it comes to discussing Israel.

MEANWHILE, THERE is some concern among Israeli intelligence officials with regard to a possible new intifadah in the West Bank. This would be due to new confidence created by the UN’s decision to make Palestine a non-member state (the UN’s contribution to peacemaking); a rapprochement between the PA, which rules the West Bank, and Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip; and the PA’s wish to compete with Hamas in attacking Israel and trying to kill Israelis.

Following the logic of the Washington Post we should hope lots of Israelis are killed by terrorists as a way to pressure those obdurate Israelis to make peace.

The Washington Post article basically follows the same Palestinian political line that has prevailed since the 1960s: forget about a negotiated compromise, Israel must be defeated, and Israelis made to suffer. The main goal is to get Israelis to give up altogether and abandon their state; the shorter-term goal is to get Israelis to accept a Palestinian state unconditionally so it can get on with the task of finishing that job.

BEFORE AROUND 1980, the above analysis would have been considered normative in Israel. Between the 1980s and 2000, when there was rising hope of a compromise peace with the PLO and its child, the PA, it would have been considered a right-wing view.  [........]

Internationally, the refusal to face the fact that the Palestinian side is responsible for the failure of peace leads to such bizarre theories and blinds people to the actual situation.

Read the rest - Is iron dome anti peace?

Chuck Hagel several years ago refused to sign a letter to the EU asking that Hezbollah be designated as a terror group. Something to think about, if Hezbollah is not a terrorist group I do not know who is.

by Hilary Leila Krieger

The US State Department indicated Tuesday that it expected the EU to finally designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, following an intensive US lobbying campaign and suspected Hezbollah plots on European soil.

“We’ve been engaging with our partners in Europe and we are cautiously optimistic – at last – about the prospects for an EU designation of the group,” Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism, said during an address at the Brookings Institution.

Benjamin, speaking later to The Jerusalem Post, didn’t give a specific date when he anticipated the designation to be made, but suggested the Europeans will have to “think hard about things in the next few months.”

The US and Israel have long pressed the EU to include the Lebanese group on its terror list, and recently US officials have publicly been making the case that that designation would help with enforcement efforts against the organization and its criminal activities.

Benjamin told the Post that the US has also been sharing information with European counterparts on Hezbollah’s increased activities in their region.

The US and Israel have accused Hezbollah of being behind a bombing that killed Israeli tourists in Bulgaria in July and a disrupted plot against Israelis in Cyprus less than two weeks earlier.

[......]
Clear Hezbollah ties to the attack could be a significant factor in the EU determination on whether to label Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

“Obviously if the Europeans feel that the proof is decisive then they’ll have to confront the fact that Hezbollah carried out an attack in Europe,” Benjamin said.

Benjamin, speaking ahead of his departure from the State Department, told Brookings that overall the appeal of extremist groups such as al-Qaida is diminishing.

“There are clearly indications that the al-Qaida message continues to wane in popularity,” he asserted.

He said that many of the new governments in the Middle East are also contributing to eroding the capabilities of this and similar groups.

“These governments increasingly show the will to tackle the terror threat,” he said, pointing to the attack on the US outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in September that left four American diplomats dead as an act that awoke many to the internal threat posed by terror groups.

[.......]

“The populations that have historically produced lots of the extremists, these people aren’t interested in violent extremism but in building better lives for their families and their communities within the international system,” he said.

But he added that despite these positive developments, “This is not a reason to relax.”

Read the rest – EU will soon list Hezbollah terrorist group, US expects

 

American foreign policy, God and Jerusalem

by Speranza ( 91 Comments › )
Filed under Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Egypt, Elections 2012, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Politics, Taliban at September 10th, 2012 - 11:00 am

Despite (sadly) Americans continuing lack of interest in foreign affairs, Americans generally do care about God and Israel.  The omission of “God” and “Jerusalem” in the original platform was a window into the soul of the current Democratic party’s view of the world. Obama’s  foreign policy record is frankly abysmal, yet polls keep showing that the public feels more comfortable with him at the head of foreign policy rather then Mitt Romney.

by Caroline Glick

Throughout his presidency, Barack Obama and his supporters have been dogged by criticism of his position on Israel. From the very outset of his tenure in office, critics and supporters alike have not been able to shake the sense that Obama is deeply hostile to the Jewish state.

Obama and his supporters have responded to every criticism of his treatment of Israel by pulling out a list. Every time his record on Israel is criticized, Obama and his supporters pull out a list of the things he has done for Israel. Just this week, in an op-ed in The New York Times, Democratic donor Haim Saban pulled out the list to justify his support for Obama.

As the list notes, Obama has given billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. He has gotten stiff sanctions passed against Iran by the UN Security Council. He has agreed to sell F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Israel. During his presidency, they say, the US has expanded its intelligence and military coordination with Israel. Obama has opposed some anti-Israel resolutions at the UN.

Obama’s critics respond to Obama’s list with a series of points. They note that in approving increases in US military assistance to Israel, including for the Iron Dome rocket defense system, Obama is simply carrying out a pledge made by his predecessor George W. Bush. They note that the UN Security Council sanctions have had no impact on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

So, too, Obama opposed even stronger sanctions against Iran passed with the overwhelming support of both houses of Congress.

[.........]

Obama’s critics mention that due to his insistence on appeasing Iran, last week Iran enjoyed its greatest diplomatic triumph since the 1979 Iranian revolution. More than a hundred nations sent representatives to Tehran to participate in the 16th Non-Aligned Movement Summit. And in the presence of UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon, those nations expressed support for Iran’s nuclear program.

And while it is true that Obama has blocked two anti-Israel initiatives at the UN, he has been more supportive of the inherently anti-American and anti-Israel UN system than any of his recent predecessors.

As for Israeli-US intelligence cooperation, under Obama for the first time, the US has systematically leaked Israel’s most closely guarded secrets to the media.

Indeed, critics of Obama’s policy towards Israel have their own list. It includes Obama’s repeated humiliations of Israel’s prime minister. It includes the multiple clashes Obama has initiated with Israel with regards to Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem. It includes Obama’s adoption of the Palestinians’ position on Israel’s borders.

But still, as Obama and his supporters will say, facts are facts and they have a list. And because the list is true – as far as it goes – they can argue that Obama is supportive of Israel.

Given its superficially compelling argument, it is remarkable that Obama’s list has failed to end the debate about his position on Israel. Today Americans have no interest in foreign policy.

They don’t want to hear that by leaving Iraq as he did, Obama squandered everything that the US fought for. They don’t want to hear that he effectively handed the country over to Iran, which now has the ability to use Iraq as its forward base for operations in Syria, Lebanon and beyond.

They don’t want to hear that Obama’s surgeand- leave strategy in Afghanistan is fomenting a US defeat in that war and setting the conditions for the reinstitution of the Taliban government.

They don’t want to hear about how Russia and China view the US with contempt and challenge its economic and strategic interests every day.

They don’t want to hear how Obama played a key role in overthrowing the US’s key ally in the Arab world, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. They don’t want to consider the implications of the fact that the US is now bankrolling the Muslim Brotherhood’s transformation of Egypt into an anti- American, radical Islamic regime.

[.......]

There are two reasons for Americans’ enduring interest and concern about Israel. And they were both revealed this week at the Democratic National Convention when the story broke about how this year’s Democratic platform differs from its 2008 platform. First it was reported that the platform contained no mention of God.

Then it was reported that unlike the 2008 platform, this year’s Democratic Party platform made no mention of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

This year’s platform watered down the language on Israel in other significant ways as well.

It did not refer to Israel as the US’s “strongest ally” in the Middle East. It did not call for the continued eschewal of the Hamas terror group by the international community. It did not mention US opposition to the Palestinian demand for the so-called “right of return” – through which Israel would be destroyed by an influx of millions of foreign Arabs in the framework of a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians. But whereas these other deletions were generally ignored, the platform’s silence on Jerusalem generated a maelstrom of criticism that exceeded even its deletion of God.

Significantly, rather than treat the deletions of God and Jerusalem as separate issues, the media and the Democrats themselves presented them as two sides of the same coin. When on Wednesday the party’s leadership decided to restore the language of the 2008 platform on God and Jerusalem – but not on Hamas, the so-called “right of return,” and Israel’s strategic significance to the US – they opted to do so in the same amendment.

[........]

Prof. Walter Russell Mead described Israel’s place in the American mindset last year. As he put it, “Israel matters in American politics like almost no other country on earth. Well beyond the American Jewish and the Protestant fundamentalist communities, the people and the story of Israel stir some of the deepest and most mysterious reaches of the American soul. The idea of Jewish and Israeli exceptionalism is profoundly tied to the idea of American exceptionalism. The belief that God favors and protects Israel is connected to the idea that God favors and protects America.”

Mead continued, “Being pro-Israel matters in American mass politics because the public mind believes at a deep level that to be pro-Israel is to be pro-America and pro-faith. Substantial numbers of voters believe that politicians who don’t ‘get’ Israel also don’t ‘get’ America and don’t ‘get’ God.”

By removing both God and Jerusalem from the platform, Obama and his fellow Democrats stirred the furies of that American soul at its foundations.

They showed they don’t “get” Israel or God. And by extension, they don’t “get” America.

The intellectually confusing decision to lump Jerusalem and God together in the same amendment no doubt owed to the fact that someone in the party recognized how disastrous the deletions were for their ability to convince wavering voters that the Democratic Party has their back.

And this brings us to nature of the Democratic Party today. For the amendment to the platform to pass, it needed the support of two-thirds of the convention’s delegates. And so, on Wednesday morning, the convention chairman, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, brought the amendment to the floor for a voice vote.

Much to his obvious shock, the amendment did not receive the requisite support. Calls supporting the amendment were met by at least equally strong calls opposing it. Villaraigosa was forced to call the vote three times before declaring – contrary to the evidence – that the amendment had passed.

More than anything else, the floor vote showed how out of step a large and significant constituency in the Democratic Party is with the basic character of their country. The spectacle should raise concerns among all supporters of Israel who believe Obama’s pro-Israel list is proof they have a safe home today in the Democratic Party.

Jerusalem’s conflation with God in the American imagination is not the only reason so many people attacked the platform’s watered-down language on US-Israel ties. The second reason for the uproar explains why the issue of Obama’s support for Israel is the only foreign policy question that has dogged his administration since he took office. It explains why American support for Israel is a more salient issue for Americans than Iraq or Afghanistan, Britain, Turkey or Russia.

Here, too, Israel’s symbolic importance in the American imagination is central for understanding the matter. Beyond its religious significance, there is a widespread perception that Israel is on the front line of the war against America. As a consequence, Israel is the only foreign policy issue that telegraphs messages about the nature of America’s foreign policy to an otherwise disengaged and largely indifferent American public.

For most Americans – if not for most Democrats – support for Israel is the most important plank of US foreign policy because it indicates the nature of that foreign policy as a whole. A president who supports Israel is a president who has his priorities straight. A president who is hostile to Israel is a president who can’t be trusted on Iran or Russia or China or anything else.

In an apparent effort to end this state of affairs, Obama has adopted a policy towards Iran – whose nuclear program represents the greatest rising threat to US national security – that frames the issue as Israel’s problem.

In so doing, Obama seeks to achieve two goals. First, he seeks to decouple Israel’s national security from America’s national security in the popular imagination. And second, he seeks to diminish popular support for Israel by presenting Israel as a country that is pushing America into an unnecessary war.

[........]

In line with this, it is telling that the amendment of the Democratic platform did not return the 2008 platform’s characterization of Israel as America’s “strongest ally” in the Middle East.

But as the outcry the platform changes provoked demonstrated, Obama has failed to achieve this goal. And this is wonderful news.

But as long as he has supporters willing to publish op-eds and give interviews devoted to repeating the list, Obama will continue to make the case that he can be trusted on foreign policy despite his abandonment of God, Jerusalem and America’s most vital interests.

Read the rest - God, Jerusalem and American Foreign policy

 

Bashar’s buddy John Kerry onstage

by Speranza ( 4 Comments › )
Filed under Headlines, Iraq, Israel, Syria at September 7th, 2012 - 9:02 pm

John Kerry our possible future Secretary of State  (in case God forbid Obama wins re-election) was part of a long line of politicians who have made the hajj to Damascus, Nancy Pelosi, Arlen Specter, Dennis “Moonbat” Kucinich, Chris Dodd and Bill Nelson being the most prominent. All came back attesting to Bashar’s “moderation”.

by Jim Geraghty

Tonight, another familiar face will address the Democrats: Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts.

Yes, the principal critic of Mitt Romney’s foreign-policy vision will be the senator who is considered Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s best friend in Washington — a tired drone from the Foreign Relations Committee who has somehow become the frontrunner to be the next secretary of state if Obama wins a second term.

Kerry’s speech is likely to be a very predictable one: Mitt Romney is a dangerous cowboy who disregards world opinion and embraces a foreign-policy philosophy that recklessly pursues American interests and dismisses the objections of allies and of vital, effective, trustworthy international institutions like the United Nations. Perhaps the phrase “global test” will make a comeback.

The current secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has made clear that she will serve only one term, and Politico describes Kerry’s desire to finish his career as the country’s top diplomat as “one of Washington’s badly kept secrets.”

The problem is that Kerry has gotten most of the biggest foreign-policy calls of the past two decades wrong.

He voted against the authorization of force for the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

He opposed President Bush’s 2007 surge in Iraq, calling it “a tragic mistake.” The surge, he elaborated, “won’t end the violence; it won’t provide security; . . . it won’t turn back the clock and avoid the civil war that is already underway; it won’t deter terrorists, who have a completely different agenda; it won’t rein in the militias.” In September 2007, Kerry voted in favor of a resolution introduced by Senator Carl Levin (D., Mich.) to withdraw all U.S. troops within 90 days.

Where Kerry isn’t wrong, he is living up to his flip-flopper label: He voted for the Iraq War and then later insisted he voted only to threaten the use of force, not to actually authorize the use of force. He initially supported and then opposed a funding bill for the Iraq War in late 2003, which prompted the confusing defense, “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”

He has called Israel’s security fence “a barrier to peace” and “a legitimate act of self-defense.”

In 2004, one of the biggest applause lines in Kerry’s acceptance speech at the Democratic convention in Boston was, “We shouldn’t be opening firehouses in Baghdad and shutting them in the United States of America.” By February of this year, Kerry was denouncing his own applause line: “Cutting foreign aid has always been a guaranteed applause line on the political stump . . .  efforts in Congress to cut billions from the president’s proposed budget for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are short-sighted.”

In May 2011, shortly after the U.S. Navy SEALs successfully raided Osama bin Laden’s compound, Kerry was quick to emphasize that U.S. military efforts in that part of the world were far from over: “With the death of Bin Laden, some people will ask why we don’t pack up and leave Afghanistan. We can’t do that. . . . Our military is making significant inroads clearing the south of insurgents. But we expect a significant Taliban counterattack this spring to regain some of these areas. We also know insurgents are spreading into other areas of Afghanistan as we drive them from their bases in the south.” But one month later, Kerry was saying the cost of the war was “unsustainable” and urging President Obama to speed up troop withdrawals.

Eight years after his presidential bid, Kerry is still fond of a statement as opaque and messy as a spilled bowl of pea soup. Discussing the WikiLeaks documents and U.S. policy in Pakistan and Afghanistan, Kerry said, “Those policies are at a critical stage and these documents may very well underscore the stakes and make the calibrations needed to get the policy right more urgent.”

The policies are at a critical stage! (Quick, how was that moment different from any other of past years?) The documents may underscore the stakes! The urgency of the need to make the calibrations may get even more urgent!

But it is Kerry’s dedicated cultivation of Bashar Assad — one of his primary foreign-policy focuses since his 2004 presidential bid — that most clearly illustrates his naïveté.

On March 15, 2011, the first sparks of a national uprising against Assad’s regime ignited; within days there were large-scale protests in several cities, and police responded with live ammunition in some cases. About 70 Syrian civilians were killed in the initial weeks.

At the end of that month, Secretary Clinton uttered one of the administration’s most regrettable lines about the Syrian dictator in an interview on CBS’s Face the Nation: “Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.”

While Kerry’s staff denies that he ever referred to Assad as a “reformer,” there is little doubt that Clinton had Kerry in mind when she made that remark. The Wall Street Journal reported at the time:

A key supporter of Mr. Assad in Washington has been Sen. John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The former presidential candidate has held nearly a half-dozen meetings with Mr. Assad in recent years, according to his staff. The two men have sought to map out the terms of a renewed Syrian-Israel peace track.

Even this month, as protests starting gripping Syria, Mr. Kerry said he thought Syria’s president was an agent for change.

“President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had,” Mr. Kerry said during a March speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I think it’s incumbent on us to try to move that relationship forward in the same way.”

The Obama administration and some Western governments, however, have voiced increasing skepticism about Mr. Kerry’s outreach to Mr. Assad. Last month, the State Department and French government intervened to block a scheduled meeting between the two men in Damascus, said officials briefed on the matter. They were concerned the trip would signal Western weakness just weeks after the collapse of Lebanon’s government.

In the Carnegie speech, Kerry said, “My judgment is that Syria will move; Syria will change, as it embraces a legitimate relationship with the United States and the West and economic opportunity that comes with it and the participation that comes with it.”

As recently as February 2010, Kerry was telling Middle Eastern leaders that he believed Israel should return the Golan Heights to Syria.

Of course, as the uprising against the regime has continued, Syria has indeed moved and changed, in an exponentially more ruthless and dangerous direction. The ongoing conflict has killed about 24,000 Syrians, according to opposition forces, and displaced about 1.5 million refugees.

As Assad’s willingness to spill blood in large amounts in order to hold onto power has become indisputable, Kerry has given up on his Damascus host. At a hearing last month, Kerry declared, “The international community — with American leadership and support — must continue to help the opposition both in ending Assad’s reign of terror and in preparing for what comes next after he is gone.”

There is a long tradition of U.S. senators vastly underestimating the ruthlessness and intransigence of foreign dictators; an oft-repeated though unconfirmed quote has Senator William Borah (R., Idaho) responding to the news of Germany’s invasion of Poland in 1939, “Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler — all this might have been averted.”

“John Kerry is no Hillary Clinton,” concludes Richard Grenell, who served at the U.N. for the George W. Bush administration and who was briefly foreign-policy adviser to the Romney campaign. “Like President Obama, Kerry believes most dictators just haven’t met him yet.”

Unhappy al-Quds day!

by Speranza ( 113 Comments › )
Filed under Hate Speech, Hezballah, Holocaust, Iran, Iraq, Islam, Islamic Terrorism, Islamists, Multiculturalism at August 19th, 2012 - 7:00 pm

The annual al-Quds Day has come and gone with the usual calls for genocide. There is an whiff of 1938 in the air.

by George Jonas

In 1979 the Ayatollah Khomeini designated the last Friday of Ramadan as Al-Quds Day to signify the Islamic world’s aspirations for Jerusalem. Some say it was just an expression of piety, but whatever the founder of theocratic Iran intended, Al-Quds Day has become an annual hatefest and expansionary symbol for vocal Islamists around the world.

Hate-tourists gather in cities with significant Arab and/or Muslim populations such as Toronto to denounce what they call “world Zionism” and express loathing for Israel. During the 2011 Al-Quds Day rally held outside the Ontario legislature, demonstrators brandished the flag of Hezbollah, while a featured speaker, Zafar Bangash, delivered himself of the view that “Allah willing, I see that day when we, the Muslims, will march on Palestine and liberate Palestine for all the people in the world.”

What the speaker saw and proclaimed last year from Queen’s Park, the grounds of Ontario’s provincial legislature, wasn’t some namby-pamby two-state solution, but the demise of the Jewish State. While he expounded on his vision, someone behind him waved the flag of a terrorist organization, which is what Hezbollah is in the view of Canada’s government. Little wonder that this strikes a person like Sayeh Hassan, a dissenter who fled the theocratic tyranny of Iran in 1987, as “a cynical abuse of Canadian pluralism and accommodation.” This week Hassan wrote an online Post column jointly with David Spiro of the Greater Toronto’s Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, denouncing Al-Quds Day for being “nothing less than a pep rally for an abhorrent, hate-filled ideology.”

It certainly is, I agree — but I’m not sure about cynical abuse. I think Bangash & Co. are simply using Canadian pluralism and accommodation as the manufacturer intended, which is what’s wrong with the multicultural model. Chances are they — or like-minded colleagues — will use it this year again, despite protests from Jewish organizations or Muslim dissidents, shocked at hearing the very voices they’ve tried to escape coming at them from the legislative grounds of their new country. As I’m writing this, Legislature Sergeant-at-Arms Dennis Clark has approved the use of Queen’s Park once again to the organizers of Al-Quds Day. In effect, Clark told the media that he realized the demonstrators went a little overboard last year, waving terrorist flags and all, but he approved because this year the organizers promised to behave.

[.....]

I’ve always had an issue with expropriating public spaces for private or sectarian purposes (other than the annual Santa Claus parade, perhaps). Much as I abhor what Mr. Bangash is saying, I would go to the barricades for his right to say it. What I question is Sergeant-at-arms Clark’s decision to lend the grounds of Ontario’s Parliament to the ayatollahs’ agenda.

What’s free speech? It’s freedom to speak my mind on any topic about which I have an opinion. It means I can say what I like regardless of how demonstrably false it may be; how much it may grate on the sense or sensitivity of others; how profoundly it may irk or offend the powerful and the fashionable, or how painfully it may hurt the feelings or self-esteem of the impoverished. Freedom of speech protects both speech and speaker from being silenced or censored because of what others may regard as requirements of social harmony, good taste, decorum, history, science, political correctness, or the truth itself — but can’t protect anyone from being regarded by contemporaries as unpleasant, indecorous, shrill, uncouth, hysterical, tasteless, false, ignorant or stupid.

Freedom of speech isn’t my guarantee of being heard. I can’t make my freedom your obligation. Freedom of speech entitles me to the first available spot in Hyde Park. It doesn’t entitle me to halt traffic in Piccadilly Circus.

[.......]

Those who want to limit free speech claim that it’s not absolute but this is false. Free speech is absolute; it’s just that using words doesn’t amount to a pass to break the law. It’s no licence to defraud, defame, incite a riot, enter a criminal conspiracy, betray an official secret, impersonate an officer, misrepresent a qualification, breach a fiduciary obligation, etc., nor should it be. Free speech should eliminate the censor and the “human rights” commissioner, but it’s not doing it yet. A pity.

Here I go again. Maybe freedom isn’t natural to us, so we have to keep reiterating its basics. It was this need that prompted someone (perhaps Thomas Jefferson) to say that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance. Unfortunately, eternal vigilance is the very thing that puts people to sleep.

Red the rest – Al-Quds Day is just a soapbox for a hatefest

Assad’s fall may lead to the end of Lebanon; and al-Qaeda wants war with Israel and Iran

by Speranza ( 120 Comments › )
Filed under Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezballah, Iran, Iraq, Islamic hypocrisy, Islamists, Israel, Jihad, Lebanon, Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, Sharia (Islamic Law), Syria at July 27th, 2012 - 8:00 am

The only good scenario in Syria is one in which neither side is able to win but the fighting continues.  The pan Syrian goal has always been to swallow up Lebanon, parts of Turkey (particularly Antakya which in Biblical days was called “Antioch”),  Jordan and  Israel,  and I doubt that will change much once Assad is gone.

by Mitch Ginsburg

Lebanon has always lived in the shadow of its neighbor to the northeast. Now, as the Assad family’s four-decade-old grip on power is painfully pried open, Lebanon, that flawed French creation, is sure to be drastically impacted by the results of uprising in Syria.

But the shape and effects of that impact are uncertain. If Israel is able to remain on the sidelines, as it has throughout the turmoil of the Arab Spring, then the fall of the Alawite regime in Syria will affect the sectarian state of Lebanon in one of two ways.

In one scenario, the demise of Assad’s Syria, which one expert called “the Iranians’ Trojan horse in the Levant” and another “the womb in which Hezbollah was born,” may lead to a rise in power for the Sunni Muslims, after years of increased Hezbollah-led Shiite control of Lebanon. Such a struggle, aided by the Sunni power brokers, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the influx of al-Qaeda-like elements in Syria, would destabilize the country, push it toward another civil war, but weaken Israel’s fiercest enemy in the Levant and hinder Iran in its bid for regional hegemony.

[...]

Israel, however, may not be able to watch passively as events unfold. Thus far the Israeli leadership has shined in its role as silent spectator to the historic events roiling the Arab world, but a transfer of chemical weapons to Hezbollah or an al-Qaeda-type group, which could entrench itself in the perhaps soon-to-be lawless lands along the Golan Heights, would demand Israeli action. Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said Tuesday that the transfer of chemical weapons to Hezbollah would be a casus belli. An Israeli strike, the IDF Chief of the General Staff Benny Gantz warned hours later, could lead to war. And war, at this stage, could push Lebanon toward oblivion.

A senior military source said recently that Israel, in its next engagement with Hezbollah, will deal Lebanon a blow so severe it “will need decades to get over it.” He intimated that he wasn’t sure Lebanon would recuperate at all.

Lebanon is the least viable of the post-Ottoman mandatory creations. The French took control of the territory in 1918 and, after crushing the Hashemite leader Faisal’s bid for Arab independence in Greater Syria, they carved out the only Christian majority state in the Middle East and named it the Republic of Lebanon.

Since independence, political powers have been assigned to certain religious groups. The president, for instance, has always been a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim and the deputy prime minister a Greek Orthodox Christian.

That system of power-sharing – based on the last official census in Lebanon, taken in 1932 – collapsed horribly during the 1975-1990 civil war, in which 150,000 Lebanese were killed. Since then the Arab state with the highest literacy rate and lowest birth rate, the cultural center of the Arab world, has come under increased Hezbollah control.

Today Christians are a small minority; Shia Islam is the largest sect in the country by a wide margin, representing perhaps as much as half the population; Hezbollah holds 11 out of 30 state cabinet positions, providing it with an effective veto; and four of its officers, including Mustafa Badr al-Din, the head of the military wing, are wanted in The Hague for the 2005 murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The organization’s armed forces, united under the twin flags of battling Israel and spreading the gospel of the Iranian revolution, are in many ways more powerful than the state military.

On May 8, 2008, Hezbollah offered Lebanon a glimpse of its domestic strength. Frustrated by the state government decision to restrict its private fixed-line communications network, which was reportedly linked to Iran and Syria, and outraged by the decision to fire Hezbollah loyalist Brig. Gen. Wafiq Choucair from the post of airport security chief, a position that allowed him to oversee the smooth transfer of arms from those two countries, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah announced the organization would “cut off the hand” of any entity that tried to harm the movement. This was a proclamation that flew in the face of decades of rhetoric regarding Hezbollah’s Lebanon-first stance.

[...]

On May 21, 2008, fearing civil war, all parties met in Doha and signed an agreement that increased Shiite influence in government and enabled Hezbollah to maintain control of its weapons, the largest arsenal of any non-state actor.

The current balance of power, though, could shift if the Alawites are toppled in Syria. “Powerful parties in Lebanon are just itching for Hezbollah to weaken as a result of the Assad regime’s fall in Syria,” according to Brig. Gen. (ret.) Shimon Shapira, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and the author of “Hizbullah: between Iran and Lebanon.”

[...]

Shapira notes additional signs of Hezbollah’s vulnerability: for the first time in years secular groups in southern Lebanon have defied the Shiite organization’s ban on the sale of alcohol, pushing Hezbollah strongmen out of stores in Nabatiyeh; talk has resurfaced about appointing a Maronite Christian officer to oversee airport security; and many high-ranking officials were implicated in the CIA’s 2011 Hezbollah spy ring.

After Bashar Assad falls, Shapira said, “the probability of the civil war being reignited is not small.”

He predicted that Sunni Jihadist fighters would descend on Beirut, link arms with local Sunnis, and battle Hezbollah. The Christians and the Druze, perhaps representing a quarter of the population in total, would sit on the fence.

He noted that the majority of Hezbollah’s arms, some 70,000 rockets, mortars and missiles, among other weapons, were amassed with the express goal of battling Israel and would do the organization little good on the streets of Beirut. “The battles will be waged with small arms fire and in that both sides are equal,” he said.

Bassem Eid, a Palestinian analyst of Middle East affairs on Voice of Israel and a human rights activist, agreed with Shapira that Assad’s demise would ripple into Lebanon and destabilize the country. He likened Lebanon to Brussels and said he was sure the British and the French were “sorry they ever created it.”

But he was vehemently opposed to the idea that a Sunni victory in Syria would translate into tangible Sunni gains in Lebanon.

[...]

Eid asserted that while in the Israeli narrative Bashar Assad’s regime has been seen as the bridge through which Iranian influence and arms cross into the Arab world, it also has served as a counterweight to Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon. “They kept the balance intact,” he said of Assad’s regime, “and as soon as they leave, Hezbollah will step in and control Lebanon.”

And since Hezbollah “spends 24 hours of each day thinking how to draw Israel into a conflict,” he said, its rise would inevitably lead to a persecuted Christian minority, and another war with Israel.

Read the rest  - Assad’s fall in Syria could spell radical change, or something even more dire, for next-door Lebanon

Rodan Addendum:

The Middle East is having a Charles Johnson style meltdown. Al Qaeda wants to set up an Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The goal of this new state is to go to war with Israel and Iran. Iran and al-Qaeda where once allies. In the 90′s al-Qaeda, Iran and Hizb’Allah fought the Serbs in the Balkans. They got beaten so bad, NATO had to step in to save them. Iran’s Hezzi puppets assisted al-Qaeda in the Khobar Towers bombing. In the 2000′s Iran harbored major al-Qaeda leaders. Now because of the fighting in Syria and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda no longer needs Iran. Keep in mind, that Iran and their Hizb’Allah lackeys also hate Israel.

An Iraqi Al-Qaeda operative has admitted that his organization is taking part in the Syrian uprising against President Assad. The revelation comes amidst increasing evidence that Al-Qaeda is gaining a foothold in Syria.

Abu Thuha, a 56-year-old Al-Qaeda operative living near Kirkuk in northern Iraq, described the Islamist organization’s grand plans to an Iraqi reporter for The New York Times.

“We have experience now fighting the Americans, and more experience now with the Syrian revolution,” he noted. “Our big hope is to form a Syrian-Iraqi Islamic state for all Muslims, and then announce our war against Iran and Israel, and free Palestine.”

This is turning into a mess. Add the presence of Maronites in Lebanon plus the Kurds in Syria and Iraq and we are talking a major mess. For those keeping score it’s: Israel vs. Iran/Hizb’Allah, al-Qaeda/Muslim Brotherhood/Turkey/Saudi Arabia vs. Iran/Hizb’Allah/Syrian Baathists, Hizb’Allah vs. Maronites, Kurds vs. Turks, Turks vs. Israel/Greek Cypriots/Russia, Israel vs. Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood and Azerbaijan vs. Armenia/Russia.

The Middle East is a disaster, let’s stay out of it!